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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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27 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Time is on our side - still 48 hours to chop and change for the better - at the moment (based on a quick look at one output) it looks like the M4 northwards into England for a good deal of the thundery stuff and a clipper over extreme Kent.

I have zero confidence that this will be what happens, tho 😅

Aha yeah the South Coast will probably be best shout for anything thundery like Kent. Guess we'll have to see. Then it'll be down to radar watching on Friday night lol

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In recent years it's either been southern England or Scotland/Northern England getting all the storms. Basically nothing in between for what seems forever.

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54 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

In recent years it's either been southern England or Scotland/Northern England getting all the storms. Basically nothing in between for what seems forever.

You'll have to narrow that down because I haven't had anything in over two years.

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Definitely not this part of southern England.  I might’ve been lucky with one storm last year but that was it and haven’t had any storms at all this year so far. 

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The South East (Kent in particular), South Coast and parts of Eastern England and Scotland have seen the most activity this year. 

 

Everywhere else has has been an utter bore fest.

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I think this forum is going to come alive tomorrow as we look towards Friday.. and then next week looks like ... like high pressure gone crazy?? with CAPE levels to match.. UFO's ? 😜 

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7 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

I think this forum is going to come alive tomorrow as we look towards Friday.. and then next week looks like ... like high pressure gone crazy?? with CAPE levels to match.. UFO's ? 😜 

Fingers crossed it's not just going to be heavy rain on Friday night but some good thunderstorms. Though not much Cape showing on Friday night into Saturday

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3 hours ago, MetWeather said:

ECMWF Really going for extreme heat next week!

as is GFS 😮 looks like low-mid 30s! with CAPES in the red.. things could change I suppose, low pressure really seems to be squeezing close to the UK on this blast.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

I think this forum is going to come alive tomorrow as we look towards Friday.. and then next week looks like ... like high pressure gone crazy?? with CAPE levels to match.. UFO's ? 😜 

It honestly won't surprise me tomorrow if the storms are downgraded to patchy drizzle.

Edited by zmstorm

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Greetings O' fellow storm starved people. :oldsmile:
 

I've just been having a look on Wetterzentrale at the Cape/Li charts for tomorrow and onwards to next Friday, and I have to say that things do look potentially quite juicy as they stand at the moment! 🌩️⛈️:oldgrin:
Naturally I've cherry picked the most juicy looking charts to show on here, and I know that Friday is still a long way - away let alone a week on Friday, but hey... This is what the 12z GFS run is forecasting.

Obviously this could all look very different by tomorrow, and that it could all downgrade to a massive drizzle event, but hopefully there is a chance with next weeks heat that something could go bang somewhere, for quite a few of us. 🌩️⛈️:oldgood:
 

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GFSOPUK12_195_11.png

GFSOPUK12_198_11.png

GFSOPUK12_219_11.png

GFSOPUK12_222_11.png

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1 hour ago, zmstorm said:

It honestly won't surprise me tomorrow if the storms are downgraded to patchy drizzle.

I am off to Rome, where no storms are forecast. 

No doubt there will be reports of Armageddon storms from the UK whilst I am over there.

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1 hour ago, matty40s said:

I am off to Rome, where no storms are forecast. 

No doubt there will be reports of Armageddon storms from the UK whilst I am over there.

How long are you going for?

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36 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

How long are you going for?

yes, the longer the better 😛 

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The GFS CAPE charts are not even plausible right now. The ensembles echo that as well.

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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

How long are you going for?

Short 5 day break with a Muse concert in the middle.

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Friday into Saturday still looking good.

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Everyone going on about massive storms next week. Remember a month ago? We all thought we would see Thunders Thursday 2.0 and nothing happened. Exactly the same will happen again. Still keeping hope though. 

P.S: I just realised how pessimistic that sounded.

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Quite excited about reading the risk forecasts this evening 

🙂

You got me.

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Just now, MetWeather said:

Level 1 Estofex for tornadoes across Scotland?!! I'm in!

Lol, tornadoes are regularly mentioned in the forecasts I read, yet I’ve not seen a single one 😆

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Fairly good instability over parts of Scotland and Ireland today with some low level convergence in places. Winds up through the atmosphere are not that strong so we should expect slow moving storms with a risk of localized flooding. Key area is likely to be north east Scotland. Slight risk of weak spout type tornadoes where low level convergence occurs.

Tomorrow is tricky to forecast at the moment. Looking at forecast SkewT's there is a short window 3pm to 5pm for Ireland and parts of Wales and the midlands. I am not entirely sure whether the instability is post frontal or on the trailing edge of the front. What we can see is potential for very high cloud tops and significant wind shear, however instability looks very weak. Perhaps more significantly there is suggestion for high cloud which could limit surface temperatures. It will probably need a closer look and assessment tomorrow morning.

Saturday gives potential instability for central and eastern parts of the UK. Here cloud tops are a bit more limited but instability is stronger. Wind shear is rather limited and uni directional meaning slower moving pulse type storms leading to localized flooding. The key area to watch at the moment looks like being the south east. Timings can change so I wont go into any more detail at the moment.

nmmuk3hrprecipthu18.png

sound-Aberdeenshire-18thu.png

sound-WestMidlands-48.png

nmmuk3hrprecipfri18.png

sound-WestMidlands-60sat.png

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41 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

Level 1 Estofex for tornadoes across Scotland?!! I'm in!

Camera poised again after last week's double funnel cloud 👍

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