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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Quite an eventless summer then so far

🙁

Don't be sad, however annoying it is, it could be a sign that our actions have had some effect on stopping global warming.  Edit: obviously global warming is a good thing to stop

Edited by MetWeather
to change the text

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4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Quite an eventless summer then so far

🙁

I would have to agree, it's been shocking!  I'm confident there will be one more big event though, might take until August

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GFS is showing lots of ppn for tuesday don`t know why,its well overdoing it has it been on the whisky.

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11 hours ago, MetWeather said:

Don't be sad, however annoying it is, it could be a sign that our actions have had some effect on stopping global warming.  Edit: obviously global warming is a good thing to stop

Really?

1. I don’t think it can be stopped

2. What actions?

3. I’ve heard GW could actually decrease thunderstorm potential by limiting the lapse rates possible between the bottom and top of the clouds. If this is true then maybe we’re actually responsible for the poor run of storms?

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Conditions could be marginally convective for parts of the Midlands northwards tomorrow if modelling is to be believed. Forecast SkewT's suggest some high cloud so it could go either way. Low level convergence and moisture pooling combined with a potential trough in the mid to upper layers likely to play a part. Slow moving convection fed with moist air from the south can be a good combination.

Looking at the EUmetsat images I am not convinced the modelling is correct though. Off the coast of Spain is a disturbance where there should really be high pressure. The low pressure towards Iceland has marked vorticity maxima to the south of it. This means it can actually go either way and needs to monitored closely. Here I would be worried about pulse storms developing localized characteristics due to weak warm air feeds from the south.

 

 

sound-WestMidlands-36.png

o8zN5lMcHUMf5.jpg

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Posted (edited)

Friday 19th July from 7pm to Saturday 20th July at 10am.

Save the date.

Edited by zmstorm

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49 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Friday 19th July from 7pm to Saturday 20th July at 10am.

Save the date.

What is this about, please enlighten us 🙂?

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1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

What is this about, please enlighten us 🙂?

Likely storms overnight for parts of the Midlands and Southern England into Saturday morning.

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11 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Really?

1. I don’t think it can be stopped

2. What actions?

3. I’ve heard GW could actually decrease thunderstorm potential by limiting the lapse rates possible between the bottom and top of the clouds. If this is true then maybe we’re actually responsible for the poor run of storms?

Makes sense. All the good weather was back in the days without pollution ruining the earth.

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Evening everyone :oldsmile:
Being as I'm feeling really quite storm starved on this hot and sultry summers evening, I thought I'd take a quick look at the Cape and LI charts from the 12z GFS on Wetterzentrale.
Naturally I've cherry picked the most juicy looking charts, but there is some items of interest being shown...

The first two charts are for next Monday afternoon/evening - 22nd of July.
The third chart is for Friday the 26th of July, and although it looks incredible, I do have the feeling that it could well be a massive outlier!
The final chart is for Wednesday the 31st of July!

Now obviously these charts are ranging from a long way out to a very long way out, so the chances of anything materialising are more than slim... But hey, its still nice to have some eye candy storm potential charts to look at. ⛈️:oldgood:

 

GFSOPUK12_171_11.png

GFSOPUK12_174_11.png

GFSOPUK12_264_11.png

GFSOPUK12_384_11.png

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:48 UTC Mon 15 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper ridge over the British Isles will gradually flatten and recede southwards, while a shortwave slides eastwards along its northern flank. The net result will be some deepening of the boundary layer, but still with a marked temperature inversion serving as a cap to any notably deep convection. Orographic forcing and low-level wind convergence, combined with diurnal heating, may allow a few isolated heavy showers to develop, but in most cases not sufficiently deep for any lightning activity (and so considered very low or sub-5%). The main exception is E / NE Scotland where some deeper convection will be possible, posing the threat of a few isolated lightning strikes potentially.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-16

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2 hours ago, MetWeather said:

Some charts seem to show large STP in the north-west in +48 hours

image.thumb.png.c5be6e73d59a88ed5323f747307b7108.png

That’s the first Blackpool Banana I’ve seen forecast in a long, long time

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3 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

 I do have the feeling that it could well be a massive outlier!

There's your outlier.

viewimage.thumb.png.bd4f1d0a8a27bdcd2820e9803c87e96e.png

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Storms? What's that young fellers? Storms? With lightning? Gad, I remember those. Back in the 1980s it was. Used to roll in from France. Lightning pounding the ground like artillery. Had to keep your head down, you know.

Those were the days. Kipling used to write poems about it, you know.

🙃

Hopefully we'll see some action in the South East as July slides into August...

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 Still no chance of anything convective here as the flow continues to be predominantly from the west. 

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looking very thundery in SE Wales right now, nothing on the radar but sat 24 does show rapid expansion of cloud.

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first two pictures are facing west towards mountain ash, the third photo to the east, Cwmbran.

IMG_4583.JPG

IMG_4584.JPG

IMG_4585.JPG

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I can see some pretty dark clouds to the north of Cardiff now, sunny to the south and black clouds to the north. I'm off for lunch now so I'll take some pics... 

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Posted (edited)

Here in Birmingham it feels like we are under a CZ

The clouds are starting to convect....but they can`t make thier minds up which way to travel

2.thumb.jpg.6da4d80bd0de9bd0b4bcdde7eefc1f64.jpg

Edited by Arnie Pie

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3 hours ago, StormLoser said:

Storms? What's that young fellers? Storms? With lightning? Gad, I remember those. Back in the 1980s it was. Used to roll in from France. Lightning pounding the ground like artillery. Had to keep your head down, you know.

Those were the days. Kipling used to write poems about it, you know.

🙃

Hopefully we'll see some action in the South East as July slides into August...

I remember his poem ‘If’:

 

If anyone is to have a storm,

It will most likely be in Lincolnshire,

Or the northern tip of East Anglia.

 

Either way if anyone has a storm,

You can guarantee Kings Lynn will get it,

And it will be a good one.

 

But everywhere else please rest assured,

If you are forecast a storm,

It will be downgraded to fog.

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19 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I remember his poem ‘If’:

 

If anyone is to have a storm,

It will most likely be in Lincolnshire,

Or the northern tip of East Anglia.

 

Either way if anyone has a storm,

You can guarantee Kings Lynn will get it,

And it will be a good one.

 

But everywhere else please rest assured,

If you are forecast a storm,

It will be downgraded to fog

I've always wondered why Lincolnshire seems to be one of the best places for home growns compared to a lot of places 

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