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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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1 minute ago, CCJD1983 said:

Cells firing off around there now SSE in the sea and that cell over Cardiff ?

 

 

Yeah that things been sitting almost perfectly still over Cardiff/Newport for almost an hour now and it's still growing o_O bet theres' some bad flooding beginning to occur there :s

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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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I use windy.com in conjunction with radar for looking for webcams.   Was watching some awesome webcams yesterday of lightning over in Europe, some good stuff going over that way today too! ?

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 Jul 2019

ISSUED 17:05 UTC Sat 27 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Negatively-tilted upper trough over Ireland and southwest Britain on Sunday will continue to dig southeastwards towards the Mediterranean, forming an eastward-propagating cut off upper low. A second cut-off upper low over Germany will swing northwestwards across the North Sea, arriving in the vicinity of the Northern Isles during Sunday night. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary continues to provide extensive cloud and outbreaks of rain in a zone from Northern Ireland - Midlands - East Anglia.

Through the day the frontal band is expected to become increasingly narrow, eventually fragmenting. However, any cloud breaks and surface heating, combined with low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing (given very slack flow) may allow a few scattered heavy showers to develop along and to the north of the frontal boundary - perhaps with a few isolated lightning strikes. Any showers that do develop will tend to weaken during the second half of the evening.

Across Scotland, a few elevated showers (perhaps weakly-electrified) will run westwards on Sunday morning from the North Sea, with other additional showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms developing by the afternoon - more especially over the W / SW mainland and the Western Isles. Another round of elevated showers will approach from the North Sea towards the Northern Isles later in the night, associated with the approaching upper low.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-28

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A couple of sferics in the Catatumbo North Sea! And a quite lively storm just to the South of Amsterdam heading west. 

Regarding the Cardiff cell, I think it’s because it’s surface based, it’s either heading in the direction of lower level flow, or in the area with steering winds in a different direction. Whereas the rain band is elevated, and governed by winds in the higher layers of the atmosphere, which are still moving NW. 

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39 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Any rain on the N/NE of the IoW? Looks like it from Southampton Water. 

 

20190727_191525-01.jpeg

I noticed a few dark clouds here not long ago as well but nothing happened. Looks like there are a few showers around the area you mentioned though. 

Edited by matt111
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 Jul 2019

ISSUED 19:53 UTC Sat 27 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Negatively-tilted upper trough over Ireland and southwest Britain on Sunday will continue to dig southeastwards towards the Mediterranean, forming an eastward-propagating cut off upper low. A second cut-off upper low over Germany will swing northwestwards across the North Sea, arriving in the vicinity of the Northern Isles during Sunday night. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary continues to provide extensive cloud and outbreaks of rain in a zone from Northern Ireland - Midlands - East Anglia.

Through the day the frontal band is expected to become increasingly narrow, eventually fragmenting. However, any cloud breaks and surface heating, combined with low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing (given very slack flow) may allow a few scattered heavy showers to develop along and to the north of the frontal boundary - perhaps with a few isolated lightning strikes. Any showers that do develop will tend to weaken during the second half of the evening.

Across Scotland, a few elevated showers (perhaps weakly-electrified) will run westwards on Sunday morning from the North Sea, with other additional showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms developing by the afternoon - more especially over the W / SW mainland and the Western Isles, where a low-end SLGT has been introduced.

Another round of elevated showers and thunderstorms will approach from the North Sea towards the Northern Isles on Sunday night, associated with the approaching upper low - but lightning activity probably weakening on approach.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-28

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Tuesday is actually striking me with interest now. A few models such as the icon going for some very intense storms, even in the late evening, and are modelling some decent energy values (1000-1500J/KG CAPE), associated also with a substantial jet streak on the right flank of the low. 

July 28th 2005 was very similar to this forecasted set up, just to add! 

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2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Tuesday is actually striking me with interest now. A few models such as the icon going for some very intense storms, even in the late evening, and are modelling some decent energy values (1000-1500J/KG CAPE), associated also with a substantial jet streak on the right flank of the low. 

July 28th 2005 was very similar to this forecasted set up, just to add! 

The gfs and the ten day NW forecast has been showing it on and off all last week,lets hope it comes off as i am on mornings.

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14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs and the ten day NW forecast has been showing it on and off all last week,lets hope it comes off as i am on mornings.

I do hope so! Its looking pretty likely now that it will do, although exact positioning of the low could be crucial. We would ideally want it just to the WSW of Cornwall heading north at around midday, as there will probably be a warm front heading northbound on its approach. We need that to clear through to be able to benefit fully from diurnal peak heating. A southeastward shift we would probably not want, as that would prevent it clearing north and just straddle us with murkiness and a useless easterly! 

The best place to achieve substantial storms is in the 4-5 O’clock position, if you imagine the low/triple point centre as a clock. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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A chance of convective weather next week, although not 'plume' style.

I've just bought a new camera, so it would be nice to test it out. Not a DSLR, but has manual controls. And a nice ND filter implementation!

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It's looking promising for NW Wales and later further North travelling up to Scotland! Here in Hawarden has, 63% later moving up over 77% chance of storms. Considering last Tuesday was only 43%, and we had one hell of a storm... I'm really hopeful, for Tuesday! I just wish I could read weather charts properly, the raw data, sounding etc and plot my own forecasts! ?  

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