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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

I’m wondering if that central band of cloud stretching up from France directly across CS England will kick off once the front out west moves in and erodes the cap

It's akin to a weak squall line moving directly north. 

Precipitation inbound, just south of Sheffield here.

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Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Wow that sucks for north midlands, north and north west england, I do hope it's wrong! About 75% of forcasts/maps go for the areas I just mentioned at highest risk of severe storms.

Just a question; we have moisture moving up through the midlands from the South, and we also have all the conducive conditions in place .. surely that will spark storms right here?

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Very heavy rain here now after some small hail for about 30 seconds. Lovely rolling thunder and saw 3 CG strikes very clearly when I was still outside standing in the spotty rain.

Edited by alijoy60

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 Not a bad storm that. Mostly ic strikes with a few CGs at times but not many. Biggest thing was the torrential rain. Stopped now sun is coming out and it’s getting hot again. Still think there is time for more.  

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4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Netwx-SR a bit more keen, but we'll see - tricky day to call. 

sr-stortms.png

Might be the case where it is the cold front that is more active than the troughs ( I believe the areas of showers / storm across the UK now are from the trough(s) and the area of rain in the SW is the front ) 20190725.1328.PPVA89.png  20190725.1027.PPVE89.png still plenty of time and possibly some more night time action up here.

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1 minute ago, EllyTech said:

Just a question; we have moisture moving up through the midlands from the South, and we also have all the conducive conditions in place .. surely that will spark storms right here?

You would think so, but your guess is as good as mine mate.  These situations always come down to nowcasting, fingers crossed! 

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ESTOFEX

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 25 Jul 2019 14:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2019 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jul 2019 13:57
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Satellite and radar indicate that isolated storms are initiating over Normandy, the Massif Central and the Jura. They develop in an environment with 500-1500 J/kg CAPE and weak vertical wind shear. Additional storms will likely form in the next hours. Given the high cloud bases, they will bear a risk of severe wind gusts associated with microbursts. In addition, some marginally large hail may occur. In the west and northwest of the area where deep-layer shear is stronger, well-organized multicells are possible that could also produce larger hail, up to 5 cm in diameter.

showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfi

 

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 25 Jul 2019 12:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2019 16:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jul 2019 12:18
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Satellite imagery shows deep convection developing near Aachen. Additional isolated high-based storms are forecast to develop across the indicated area during the afternoon. In a weakly-sheared situation with about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE storm mode will be single cells. The high bases around 3000 m AGL point to a distinct risk of (dry) microbursts that can locally produce damaging winds at the surface. In addition, some marginally large hail should be possible. The risk should gradually subside during the evening.

showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfi

Edited by Raindrops
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Recent sky over Sedgley, showers looking like missing me to the east.

20190725_160812.jpg

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Another cell coming now. Let’s see what it does. 

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4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Not a bad storm that. Mostly ic strikes with a few CGs at times but not many. Biggest thing was the torrential rain. Stopped now sun is coming out and it’s getting hot again. Still think there is time for more.  

Sounds similar to my experience hopefully we can get some more but i'm not particularly hopeful but it'll be a nice surprise if there is more. You should keep an eye on the heavy shower around Chester which might give you one or two flashes. 

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Cap may be gone? Still 37c, but cloud has bubbled up enough for us to have full cover in minutes. Wind has really picked up too. Something brewing?

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Definitely looking thundery now to my North 

DSC_0122.JPG

Edited by TJS1998Tom
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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m going to head to Firle and see if I can catch the side of that system in the channel ?

Wish we had doplar.. looking at the forecasted radar, there seems to be rotation on the hail core. Taking the East flank of that/those cells would be a great place to observe. Good luck down there. 

Edited by EllyTech

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So much for the France storm being killed off by the channel 

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2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Wish we had doplar.. looking at the forecasted radar, there seems to be rotation on the hail core. Taking the East flank of that/those cells would be a great place to observe. Good luck down there. 

On UKWW it’s been mentioned that the storms in the channel won’t cross to our shores. They are surface based and the channel will supposedly keep killing them off ?‍♂️

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Out of no were that cell just north of Leeds 

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My view N of the storm that’s gone over us and is Lytham way now.

135A8EED-4B38-428E-B5AE-610E4FFBAAF8.jpeg

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

On UKWW it’s been mentioned that the storms in the channel won’t cross to our shores. They are surface based and the channel will supposedly keep killing them off ?‍♂️

Conditions are great, it might cycle down but it will jolly well cycle back up when it reaches our shores imo.

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3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

So much for the France storm being killed off by the channel 

it's not exactly racing across it either

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

On UKWW it’s been mentioned that the storms in the channel won’t cross to our shores. They are surface based and the channel will supposedly keep killing them off ?‍♂️

Said later activity in the eml will though.

Meanwhile I think we could well be growing our own...

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A long line of showers starting to pep up from Portsmouth and north towards Oxford, any risk of this lot growing into a line of storms?

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