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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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1 minute ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Yes. If you were in Wrexham you could have given us a wonderful video of that supercellish monster heading to north Wales right now

OK Dangerous and Summerstorm, over to you...get filming lads..

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I'm up in Newcastle upon Tyne, and reading the forums I started getting hopeful.  I just looked at the BBC Weather website, and their forecast for anything storm related area is now lower than it was earlier (down to 18% from 20%).  I think I'm going to have to go radar because I don't know what to expect now to be honest

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Spots of cool rain here. Most welcome.

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33 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

That cell over Shrewsbury is electrifying nicely. :oldsmile:

0B4171BE-2F2C-473B-A34C-326A208AB567.png

Yes, nice little cell with bangs and flashes went through. Sun out again and still very hot and sticky, wouldn't be surprised if we get some more...

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Intense storm now heading for Chester and then the Merseyside area, bright echos on the radar and frequent lightning 

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4 minutes ago, ajt75 said:

I'm up in Newcastle upon Tyne, and reading the forums I started getting hopeful.  I just looked at the BBC Weather website, and their forecast for anything storm related area is now lower than it was earlier (down to 18% from 20%).  I think I'm going to have to go radar because I don't know what to expect now to be honest

I never use those things they're nearly always wrong.  Read the posts and forecasts from people across the forums you'll get a better idea.

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The Temperatures across Northern France are now sufficiently high close to the coast for some Surface based storms to fire (these are utilising the energy and heat at the surface rather than firing from within the EML contained in the plume which has moved north. Temperatures of 41.4C and DP of 15.6C are enough with some moisture convergence along the north French coast to force the ascent (Synoptic scale forcing is not required here) The cooling i mentioned above required for storms over the UK is also not needed over N France as the surface and lower 1-1.5KM of the atmosphere is much warmer than over the UK (if you overlayed an ascent from Surrey over this Paris ascent the Surrey ascent would be shifted to the left with very little if any CAPE available until the cooling aloft takes place. The storm close to Rouen is generating frequent lightning, but it will not move over the English Channel or develop further north as its not routed or anchored to the EML but instead to the heated land over France. (This storm will hate the english channel, the others which formed from the EML do not care about the English Channel) 

Trappes 11Z Ascent, A rather dry and hot profile, but closer to the coast enough moisture and convergence to focus ascent. Verified by Satellite observations of -53 to -55C

image.png.0a4862f9937c8a1c707d35c0675d3faf.png

Paul Blight ukww

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2 minutes ago, P-M said:

I never use those things they're nearly always wrong.  Read the posts and forecasts from people across the forums you'll get a better idea.

Will do thanks for heads up

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Sadly this storm is just to my east... But I can hazard a guess that Chester is gonna cop it. But it is grumbling away nicely.  🌩️

7B5CE6D7-D8CD-451F-9382-5B8B9F88A376.jpeg

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Posted (edited)

Mostly IC lightning I think only seen one or two CG's. Or it's too bright and I'm struggling to see them. 

Edited by Summerstorm

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1 minute ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

The Temperatures across Northern France are now sufficiently high close to the coast for some Surface based storms to fire (these are utilising the energy and heat at the surface rather than firing from within the EML contained in the plume which has moved north. Temperatures of 41.4C and DP of 15.6C are enough with some moisture convergence along the north French coast to force the ascent (Synoptic scale forcing is not required here) The cooling i mentioned above required for storms over the UK is also not needed over N France as the surface and lower 1-1.5KM of the atmosphere is much warmer than over the UK (if you overlayed an ascent from Surrey over this Paris ascent the Surrey ascent would be shifted to the left with very little if any CAPE available until the cooling aloft takes place. The storm close to Rouen is generating frequent lightning, but it will not move over the English Channel or develop further north as its not routed or anchored to the EML but instead to the heated land over France. (This storm will hate the english channel, the others which formed from the EML do not care about the English Channel) 

Trappes 11Z Ascent, A rather dry and hot profile, but closer to the coast enough moisture and convergence to focus ascent. Verified by Satellite observations of -53 to -55C

image.png.0a4862f9937c8a1c707d35c0675d3faf.png

Paul Blight ukww

Doesn't everything from france hate the english channel

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The surface based blob just leaving the French coastline looks lively and seems to be increasing in activity. Keeping a close eye on it...

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Just now, LimoPreacherman said:

The surface based blob just leaving the French coastline looks lively and seems to be increasing in activity. Keeping a close eye on it...

Read above post i put from Paul at ukww,the channel will kill the storm

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I see the Welsh storm is playing catch up with the French storm with the number of strikes (Of course not are accurate). Also noting the French storm has split and degraded a little in lightening strikes..

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*praying for destabilisation to occur on the cherbourg peninsula ala Tuesday*

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Just now, Ndc Ozzie said:

Read above post i put from Paul at ukww,the channel will kill the storm

Thank you!

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So we have to wait until early evening for stuff to get going properly in the channel i'm assuming? 

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Thank you everyone for the explanation. Am bit of a "dippy" female oap! Ha Ha.

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Posted (edited)

 

Couldn’t resist a look at the radar...postcode search shows my area right under a hail core as of 15 minutes ago, storm looks to be moving at a fair old lick with activity now over Chester and South Wirral.

Edited by Carl46Wrexham

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

 

Couldn’t resist a look at the radar...postcode search shows my area right under a hail core as of 15 minutes ago, storm looks to be moving at a fair old lick with activity now over Chester and South Wirral.

Lots of nice thunder but didn't see many CG's not sure you actually missed much really Tuesday night was better. 

Edited by Summerstorm

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Just now, Summerstorm said:

Lots of nice thunder but didn't see many CG's not sure you actually missed much really last night was better. 

Any hail where you are? Saw a decent sized hail core on the radar..another small area of intense precipitation approaching you from the South, then that’s it...dry once you get past Oswestry

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Posted (edited)

Recorded some footage, it made a slight turn East. So caught the left edge! NO lightening caught tho either, was more over Chester. Enjoy! Liverpool and Merseyside :D. Will post after my foods.

Edited by CCJD1983

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Thunder getting louder. Looking good. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Any hail where you are? Saw a decent sized hail core on the radar..another small area of intense precipitation approaching you from the South, then that’s it...dry once you get past Oswestry

Yeah looks impressive but missed the worst of it to the east I live in the NW of Wrexham and had some pretty heavy rain and could see the downdrafts but that's all. Mostly IC lightning and it went to the east of me might have been better at night perhaps. 

Edited by Summerstorm

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1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Yeah looks impressive but missed the worst of it to the east I live in the NW of Wrexham and had some pretty heavy rain and could see the downdrafts but that's all. Mostly IC lightning and it went to the east of me might have been better at night perhaps. 

Think that might be it for the day with regards to chances for NE Wales/Cheshire. Things kicking off later will be further E IMO

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