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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Anyone referring to BBC online forecasts, they have already got it wrong for my location so I wouldn’t pay too much attention to their graphics.

 

They have got me under wall to wall sunshine for the whole day, but this has popped up...

75770744-D098-4535-8A6F-F5D7937CF69D.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

Torro - the UK's Tornado and Storm Research Organisation

4 mins · 

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2019/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:55BST on Thursday 25th July 2019

Valid from/until: 13:55 - 23:59BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 for the following regions of the
United Kingdom & Ireland:

Parts of E Wales

Parts of the Midlands

N & E England

S and E Scotland

THREATS
Tornadoes, perhaps strong; hail to 60mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are initiating over Herefordshire and these will move quickly north, with a risk of becoming severe in the next hour or so as they become more surface-based. Other storms are likely to form over parts of the Midlands and N England, all moving north at around 40mph. Shear will be sufficient for storm organisation, including supercells - any supercell would take more of a NNE track. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly high, especially later this afternoon/early evening - enhancing the tornado risk with any supercell which can develop. There is a small chance of a strong tornado, given the shear/instability parameter space.

Large hail is also likely with any supercell which can form, perhaps 40-60mm diameter.

Other thunderstorms are forming near Hitchin and will also move N or NNE, perhaps becoming severe with attendant risks as above.

It should be noted that, as always, many places will miss the storms entirely - overall, the highest risk of the hazards mentioned above appears to be over parts of the N Midlands and N England.

Forecaster: RPK

all forecasts now saying the same thing N midlands Northwards seems to be the place to be and this activity wasn't really unexpected and the Convective Weather forecast basically said as much as I'm not certain about the wisdom of chasing considering the speed of their movement 40mph , good luck trying that on the british road network

Edited by Gordon Webb

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Not surprising we are starting to see wide swathes of instability - the CAP will soon be put under some serious pressure (if not already). Temperature of 37C and still climbing!!

0A329175-450B-4EB7-A97F-FA8159378656.png

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Gonna get on the A1M

Think this is gonna give me the best chance of intercepting storms as they are gonna be mitering along. 

 

But first Mc Donald's for the road trip 😊

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53 minutes ago, Stormchick said:

I am car-less too. Will be sat in Bradford forced to face North and hope for the best. There are some intense blips over Yorkshire on the GFS charts for 6pm-ish, and I would love to be chasing. Will make do with a G+T and my fingers crossed. 

The G+T idea sounds ideal to me, whilst watching some intense action. Fingers crossed too.

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First rumbles of thunder heard from dark clouds to SEE of me.

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Just now, Harry said:

Not surprising we are starting to see wide swathes of instability - the CAP will soon be put under some serious pressure (if not already). Temperature of 37C and still climbing!!

0A329175-450B-4EB7-A97F-FA8159378656.png

I'm out in Oxfordshire and got 36.6  which is the highest temperature I've recorded. Still a very strong cap

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not surprising we are starting to see wide swathes of instability - the CAP will soon be put under some serious pressure (if not already). Temperature of 37C and still climbing!!

0A329175-450B-4EB7-A97F-FA8159378656.png

If the euro4 is right we should get some cracking Storms later in the south.. 

 

More damaging Storms further north which as much as I want to experience.. Bit not over my own house lol! 

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6 minutes ago, Gord said:

Not quite through the Black Country...just a tad further west than that right now. Still sunny here and can see it to my west...though doesn't look as close as I thought it would.

I know what you mean Gord..........i just didn`t what to say Greater Birmingham...worth keeping an eye on though👍

 

Edited by Arnie Pie

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There is more of a risk with heat stroke today than any storm I assure you. We aren't the American Mid-West, so although we will get some decent storms, being realistic, any severe events will be very isolated affairs, so warning people not to go near any storms as they could be more severe than usual is massively OTT, rant over!! 

Just a few hours to go before we really see the fun and games in the Midlands/North, then further South from 7pm onwards. Capping is having a big affect in the South so far.... our hopes rest on when this finally gives way (this evening). Still worth radar watching though 

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Cloud bubbling up around Reigate, and it looks like plenty of destabilisation. 34C in the shade here. Small shower passing us by (what's new?).

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In terms of potential I really don't think we could do any better than this over Northern/western england/north midlands! Extreme heat currently in place with a very warm southerly breeze, cool air pushing in from the west against this! The cap seems to be breaking now a little earlier than expected and the storms/showers are well scattered, nothing to bleed there energy from them. And most importantly clear skies! How many times over the last few years have we been promised huge storms only for that crappy cloud to not shift all day inhibiting any storm developement?

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Instability slowly increasing here at Costa Del Canvey and the sun has just gone in behind what looks like some ac cas

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Storms now firing between Rouen and Le Havre - these will head north towards London and Kent.

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21 minutes ago, Dami said:

just rain here.

Indeed! the ground dried almost instantly! This feels like florida today. Maybe i should start walking to the hill again haha.

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3 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

I know what you mean Gord..........i just didn`t what to say Greater Birmingham...worth keeping an eye on though👍

 

That one is out of my reach now. But looking at the sky in all directions, these things could pop up anywhere. I'm sure there'll be a few more drifting around over the next few hours.

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Channel-watching here in Hailsham with an eye to some elevated stuff later. 

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That little cell in North France has really come to life now.

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Any chasers in the Torbay area looking to go near these storms? Room for a small one? I'll pay the fuel! 

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 A nice CG to my south-west. Still 31°C. Sporadic bursts of convective rain. 

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Today aside.. Anyone looked into tomorrow afternoin/evening to yet? 

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for those who may have been surprised at the activity

here's a snippet from convective weather for daytime

CS + SW ENGLAND / WALES / MIDLANDS / NW ENGLAND THURSDAY DAYTIME ...

Elsewhere, gradual moistening at the top of the EML (in the 600-700mb region) may lead to a few scattered elevated showers or thunderstorms developing over CS / SW England around noon, these then drifting northwards across Wales / Midlands / Irish Sea / NW England through the afternoon. The depth of convection will likely be quite shallow, so lightning may be somewhat sporadic and very hit-and-miss. Given the very deep hot, dry airmass beneath the cloud base (also approx 8,000 ft, but note this is from elevated convection rather than the surface-based convection mentioned earlier) any rain would likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

for the entire forecast

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-25

Edited by Gordon Webb

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