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Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Had a report of heavy rain near to Steyning in West Sussex and the temperature has not dropped 😲

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1 minute ago, Chris K said:

Shame it's just that bit too far North and East of us today by the looks of things! Guess I can't be too greedy though after Tues night.... 😄

I know what you mean but sod it... we seem to miss the good stuff quite a lot so we should be greedy 😂😂

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I may head down to Bexhill Seafront later!

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33c here at 1pm,sweltering in me narrowboat and does look like we may get shower in next couple of hours as a lot more cloud has arrived now.

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 First shower arriving. 

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Posted (edited)

not really expecting anything in SE Wales.. but Iv'e set up my stream -- Big cam is face ENE - little camera SE

 

Edited by ancientsolar

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31 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

well if it goes to forecasts and it seems to be at moment you should be in a decent spot later on

Cheers - here's hoping!

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OK so I've finished work and gonna chase today tonight. Currently in Harlow Essex and wondering if I should head north and west to say Birmingham area or stay put and see what develops. 

Any advice from those with any inside knowledge please 😊

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Hi all--long term lurker here finally decided to start posting. I nearly choked on my breakfast when I read the storm report for today, especially this part: "Strong deep layer shear, with some backing at the low-levels, suggests a couple of supercells will be possible, capable of producing very frequent lightning, large hail 3-4cm in diameter and, if storms can remain surface-based, the risk of a tornado or two".

 

I can't recall a time in the past when tornados have been forecast in my area.  I am in Glasgow, and in the last hour cloud coverage has notably increased--something is definitely brewing.  I experienced a supercell for the first, and only, time while on holiday in Florida.  To say I was awe-struck would be an understatement.  I never thought I would get to experience one in my back-yard, the fact that some major convective activity is forecast has had me on here and similar sites all morning.  I will keep you all updated about how the conditions are up here, pining for some whip-cracking lightening and deep, deep rumbles of thunder like an artillery barrage.  Knowing my luck it will all end up happening 20 miles or so from wherever I happen to be! 😞  

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Distant rumble in Shrewsbury. Looks to be over the Long Mynd again.

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Posted (edited)

Sferic just SE of Northleach, Gloucs. A bit of activity moving up through the Eastern border of Wales, recent activity around Shabdon Aerodrome NW of Leominster and East of - Tenbury Wells.

Edited by EllyTech
typo

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Torro - the UK's Tornado and Storm Research Organisation

4 mins · 

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2019/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:55BST on Thursday 25th July 2019

Valid from/until: 13:55 - 23:59BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 for the following regions of the
United Kingdom & Ireland:

Parts of E Wales

Parts of the Midlands

N & E England

S and E Scotland

THREATS
Tornadoes, perhaps strong; hail to 60mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are initiating over Herefordshire and these will move quickly north, with a risk of becoming severe in the next hour or so as they become more surface-based. Other storms are likely to form over parts of the Midlands and N England, all moving north at around 40mph. Shear will be sufficient for storm organisation, including supercells - any supercell would take more of a NNE track. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly high, especially later this afternoon/early evening - enhancing the tornado risk with any supercell which can develop. There is a small chance of a strong tornado, given the shear/instability parameter space.

Large hail is also likely with any supercell which can form, perhaps 40-60mm diameter.

Other thunderstorms are forming near Hitchin and will also move N or NNE, perhaps becoming severe with attendant risks as above.

It should be noted that, as always, many places will miss the storms entirely - overall, the highest risk of the hazards mentioned above appears to be over parts of the N Midlands and N England.

Forecaster: RPK

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First embryonic tower just to my south... I’d say over North Shropshire. :oldrolleyes:🌩️

5463A6AE-426D-4D02-92C6-B9983B829BBE.jpeg

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Posted (edited)

Cell to the West of Brum....heading through the Black Country.....not breaking any caps atm

290549309_thur002.thumb.jpg.ca5f43f6c74194ee3a8d218e5d69dd28.jpg

Edited by Arnie Pie

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2 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

Torro - the UK's Tornado and Storm Research Organisation

4 mins · 

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2019/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:55BST on Thursday 25th July 2019

Valid from/until: 13:55 - 23:59BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 for the following regions of the
United Kingdom & Ireland:

Parts of E Wales

Parts of the Midlands

N & E England

S and E Scotland

THREATS
Tornadoes, perhaps strong; hail to 60mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are initiating over Herefordshire and these will move quickly north, with a risk of becoming severe in the next hour or so as they become more surface-based. Other storms are likely to form over parts of the Midlands and N England, all moving north at around 40mph. Shear will be sufficient for storm organisation, including supercells - any supercell would take more of a NNE track. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly high, especially later this afternoon/early evening - enhancing the tornado risk with any supercell which can develop. There is a small chance of a strong tornado, given the shear/instability parameter space.

Large hail is also likely with any supercell which can form, perhaps 40-60mm diameter.

Other thunderstorms are forming near Hitchin and will also move N or NNE, perhaps becoming severe with attendant risks as above.

It should be noted that, as always, many places will miss the storms entirely - overall, the highest risk of the hazards mentioned above appears to be over parts of the N Midlands and N England.

Forecaster: RPK

is there a link to the map on this?

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1 minute ago, Arnie Pie said:

Cell to the West of Brum....heading through the Black Country

290549309_thur002.thumb.jpg.ca5f43f6c74194ee3a8d218e5d69dd28.jpg

Not quite through the Black Country...just a tad further west than that right now. Still sunny here and can see it to my west...though doesn't look as close as I thought it would.

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Very sound advice indeed. Safety is always the best policy. 

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Just now, Ndc Ozzie said:

image.thumb.png.df1a4b7ac6d0b2ce70130dd2c1091c34.png

Basically midlands north - iv'e seen enough to suggest this could be quite special this evening..

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2 minutes ago, P-M said:

is there a link to the map on this?

It's on there facebook page

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 That shower has just electrified. Thunder. 

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