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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Posted (edited)

Oh - well I for one am quite surprised at the bubbling up of some showers south of the Portsmouth area. I thought we'd be dryer. I will be watching this with interest...

There seems to be a lot of disagreement on specific areas in the models and being a complete numpty, my seat of the pants forecasting is not telling me much.

But seeing the developments in northern France, the 'whole of the east' corridor seems possible. J'avez un feeling du gut.

Kick off the shoes, sit back and relax. That's my strategy for now...

Edited by StormLoser

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Phew. It side stepped here. Moving NNE.

20190725_105557-01.thumb.jpeg.c646cd8738beac651a4355dccfb1fa4b.jpeg

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Full House! :oldlaugh:

image.thumb.png.9e83239432611c0130d5aea9032ef1f8.png

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Interestingly, PJB not really interested in the severe outlook further North as many forecasts are showing.

Who will win??

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Just now, Azazel said:

Interestingly, PJB not really interested in the severe outlook further North as many forecasts are showing.

Who will win??

Was just going to mention, some conflicting opinions between forecasters today. All eyes on the radar this afternoon 

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Looks like altocumulus castellanus in above photos which is elevated convection above the cap.

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50 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It depends what you mean by nailed on, euro 4 looked a bit ropey for Tuesday more than 24 hours out.

This was Monday 18z 

19072403_2218.gif

I tend to find they are more accurate at slightly closer range. By Tuesday morning I remember the Euro4 showing widespread precipitation across the Midlands and N England, although I don't have the chart to hand. 

Now that we have the updates from all the experts it looks like a lot of places are at risk from multiple storm episodes. I may be just too far southeast for today and too far west for tonight.

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Bit confused then with the BBC forecast just now seemingly not giving the south much of a chance at all, yet forecasting 38/39c which is a possible cap breaker isn't it?

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PJB suggests the lightning will be very, very frequent, with a higher risk of CGs, due to lower cloud bases!!!! could be a memorable one!

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Suns gone. Clouds bubbling up but doesn’t seem that hot to me 🙄 

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Well wasnt expecting that rain along the Poole n Bournmouth just now! wondering it it will make a difference this evening with more moisture around. 

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I’m so hopeful for tonight.

No worries if it is a bust, but I remember big storms like football world cups. The last one for here was the Yorkshire supercell of 2015. It’s a little bookmark embedded in my memory of who I was at the time, where I lived, what I was doing and who I was with. I’d love another little bookmark and a spectacular light show tonight.

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38 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

This is from Met Monkey, always found him o be more reliable than anywhere else.
 

 

EATaXboW4AMfRQJ.jpg

I'm following this guy, good info, but be cautious he seems a little over-dramatic at times, refer's to most storms as 'Severe'... reminds me of that Reed Rimmer over in America!! Anyway, I would be pleased if his cries of moderate tornadoes and large hail come off! That would be very nice. But apart from isolated events - widespread large hail has never really occured in the UK so it's unlikely to be widespread in nature, but never the less a low risk

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After reading several very informative posts from the likes of Nick F, PJB, Met4Cast, Estofex and CW, I'm none the wiser! 😅

I'm definitely not travelling during the day, but if there's some severe stuff reasonably close by as it starts to get dark then I might go to a nearby vantage point. Feels like just about anywhere could cop a severe thunderstorm!

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Here in Portsmouth, clouds have arrived, doesn't seem up to much. I can see blue sky behind the cloud line too. Not sure it will even rain.

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Shower that passed shower initially dropped temp to 25c, but that’s already back to 26c but dew points have rocketed to 21c #moist! 

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Interestingly, PJB not really interested in the severe outlook further North as many forecasts are showing.

Who will win??

I know. Think I'm going to go with netweather, convective weather and estofex though. North I shall go!

Edited by Karl83

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18 minutes ago, jtay said:

Full House! :oldlaugh:

image.thumb.png.9e83239432611c0130d5aea9032ef1f8.png

😍

OMG right over my house!!

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Posted (edited)

No clouds for Thurrock, but later on but it won't last and sadly there will be no rain.  The chance of storms and convective weather is at 0%.:oldsad:  I would be very happy if it only rained heavily for several hours.

Edited by Katrine Basso
Incomplete sentence due to lack of sleep

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3 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following this guy, good info, but be cautious he seems a little over-dramatic at times, refer's to most storms as 'Severe'... reminds me of that Reed Rimmer over in America!! Anyway, I would be pleased if his cries of moderate tornadoes and large hail come off! That would be very nice. But apart from isolated events - widespread large hail has never really occured in the UK so it's unlikely to be widespread in nature, but never the less a low risk

Agreed, I think using "extremely dangerous" is over the top. I'd reserve that term for tornado alley!

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Beginning to look dark over Southampton but no sign of lighting :-(

B1783886-26E0-4366-8732-84F38A234840.jpeg

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Textbook castellanus here. West Yorkshire looking northwest. 20190725_111825.thumb.jpg.def6c13ff8debc8ad8e16acf14e5c541.jpg20190725_112240.thumb.jpg.ff020784a4498b70dbb272c8912612d9.jpg

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Another line setting up over S.Channel heading this time somewhat further east of the original line. These may well be worth watching as they head towards southern coastal counties of the SE, though I suspect the eastern cells will wither away, just like the previous line has done on the eastern side.

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