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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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You wait a lifetime for a funnel cloud and then two come at once!

A few from last night, just South of Salisbury. Mostly intracloud stuff, but an impressive light show none the less.  

Well that was a pretty awesome night. Although I cant help but feel slightly disappointed for not getting any SLR shots. And now I'm left wanting more and more ?. Anyway a very impressive light show w

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Well, after only a couple of hours of sleep, and a four mile round walk in this heat to pop into work, I've been flagging all day.

Managed to upload the one video ( I need to see if the second is worth the bother) but my pics and vidz aren't very good quality ( old mobile phone camera)

The main interest on this clip is the strength of the gust front, which was so strong that it was blowing the torrential rain up and over the green dome of the local church- it really did look more like fast moving smoke! Hopefully you can just about make it out- it really reminded me of hurricane footage when they're close to the eye.

I've also not seen that amount of rain falling at that rate before in this location, which caused short term localised flooding at the bottom of our road, but that rain and wind intensity probably lasted no more than 5 minutes.

20190724_031235.jpg

Edited by Hirudine
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5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Is it just me, or has NW radar gone down...? Last frame was 17:10?

working fine for me.

Untitled.thumb.png.950507d72451850e38cd7b37633a63d7.png

never had a problem with it,have you cleared your cache and cookies etc recently?

i am using chrome but did use firefox,not had any issues on either.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Met forecast seems to think storms will break out over the east of England,i don't know how old the vid is,just says today.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/videos

the bbc's take on it two hours ago

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

seems to think the same

i think i will stick to radar watching tomorrow evening/night.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I won’t be going as far afield this time - driving home for 2 hours half asleep isn’t fun ?

Also I don’t want to think about how many poor froggies I may have squished on the way back ?

I actually rescued a 3 legged dog on my way back last night! Driving back through country lanes I saw what I thought was a limping deer but as the car lights lit it up I saw it was a bedraggled looking dog. Luckily a little further down the road I saw someone with a torch searching for something and reunited the dog with his frantic owner: apparently the poor old thing was so terrified of the storm he just bolted out of the house when the owner opened the front door. Even on three legs he was too fast to stop. My dog on the other hand was snoozing in the back of the car - she loves a night out on storm chase! ??

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Discrepancies between modelling for this afternoon and evening. UKMO, HIRLAM and to an extent, the ICON break out storms later this afternoon up through the Marches, west Midlands and NW England. Other models disagree and don't make much of this initial destabilisation.

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15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Discrepancies between modelling for this afternoon and evening. UKMO, HIRLAM and to an extent, the ICON break out storms later this afternoon up through the Marches, west Midlands and NW England. Other models disagree and don't make much of this initial destabilisation.

Indeed, I'm a bit on the fence myself with this.. It could go one of 2 ways.. Bust or mega Storms.. No middle ground.. 

 

Good to see euro4 on board sorta.. But other high rea models do not agree 

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20 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Indeed, I'm a bit on the fence myself with this.. It could go one of 2 ways.. Bust or mega Storms.. No middle ground.. 

 

Good to see euro4 on board sorta.. But other high rea models do not agree 

Not going to have time to enjoy the pre-match build up today and such like sadly, but Euro4 currently indicating storms developing and drifting into SE overnight. As ever, going to be a complex day reliant on seeing how it all unfolds later today/tonight 

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10 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

Is it just down to the nature and timing of the plume destabilisation? In the evening it's more likely to have frequent elevated lightning or give us an MCS type storm

I suppose the more severe surface based supercells that we rarely get will always likely be day time events,(28/6/12 and 1/7/15 spring to mind) but these are few and far between, infact I think those 2 are the only significant large hail events of this decade?

Also one in York this time last year which brought golf all sized hail. Seen below from my house near Leeds. 20180727_181112.thumb.jpg.faf2f064c4f4d118bc4e503ef1dfc425.jpg

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

Not going to have time to enjoy the pre-match build up today and such like sadly, but Euro4 currently indicating storms developing and drifting into SE overnight. As ever, going to be a complex day reliant on seeing how it all unfolds later today/tonight 

And latest Arome has come on board now.. This is a good sign.. It was one of the only models that picked out the first Storms that fired over northern France night before... It did okay (ish) with regards to the Storms moving north although of course.. Got track and spread of Storms wrong.. 

 

Edit: quick Check of sat also shows some light convection over northern France.. 

I know I'm sitting in the fence here with this one.. But if it does bang its going to go proper bang.. Someone is going to get absolutely clobbered 

Edited by Surrey
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Here's my take.

Storms likely to be more isolated across SW Eng, Wales & the central spine of the country. More organisation possible across SE/EA/E Counties but potentially severe and violent thunderstorms for Scotland with the potential for a tornado or two! Going to be another fantastic night if all goes to plan..

Convec Outlook.png

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Most models giving me a chance. I feel storms could fire here and then reach maturity as they move North and East. I don't think i'll see anything after nightfall.

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7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

working fine for me.

Untitled.thumb.png.950507d72451850e38cd7b37633a63d7.png

never had a problem with it,have you cleared your cache and cookies etc recently?

i am using chrome but did use firefox,not had any issues on either.

 

It’s working now... I have the app, so there’s no need to clear anything. Thanks for the suggestions though! ? 

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Hmmm now euro4 almost matches the arome but has absolutely nothing for Scotland..

The usually "no idea what's going to happen" 

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2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Hmmm now euro4 almost matches the arome but has absolutely nothing for Scotland..

The usually "no idea what's going to happen" 

The most exciting ones! 

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8 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

Convective weather high risk... That's something. Is this the second time its ever happened??! What do you guys think for the south-east?

There is a pretty good chance of some elevated lightning this evening... The MDT zone never usually fails to deliver the goods! Good luck! It’s our turn tonight.

Edited by LightningLover
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