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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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3 minutes ago, Just Before Dawn said:

I use a Sigma 24mm f1.4 from their 'art' range - primarily for astrophotography but it's also great for storms too.  I tend to use liveview to manually focus but infinity on this lens is pretty good so in a hurry I feel confident going with that.

In terms of tomorrow night, I guess it depends on the cap and whether temps and humidity gets high enough to erode it and when that happens.  I'll be driving over the Wolds around 9pm tomorrow night, so I'll need to remember the tripod and cable release.

I was tempted by the sigma but in the end I went with the Canon EFS 10-18mm. It’s been wonderful in daylight and now I know about the focus ring, hopefully I’ll get another chance before summer is out.

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I have an cannon 750d but have never got it to the right setting for lightning. Will be out tomorrow evening 100% so maybe be able to get it to work. Will you be round my area again @Flash bang flash bang etc?  

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7 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely not knocking kit lenses! 

 

Oh I wasnt suggesting you were lol - Just I struggle with the amount of lenses out there & with the cost its hard to choose what I really need. Saying that I might just go buy this lens I posted & go from there.

3 minutes ago, Climate_Eyes said:

As the second round closed in, the intensity peaked with some pretty odd sounds. There was some very loud decent deep gunshot thunder, but mostly the atmosphere just groaned and grumbled almost without a break, and with such anger. Fantastic.

 

 

Must of been what I was hearing, the groaning -  its such an odd sound to even explain. But loving the photos.

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5 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Must of been what I was hearing, the groaning -  its such an odd sound to even explain. But loving the photos.

Hi Lu! Yes it was really odd, almost like the earth itself was creaking, that's the best I can come up with..

And cheers, only phone stills but fun to get. Your pics are great btw, hope you do well again tomorrow! 

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1 hour ago, Chris K said:

Does anyone know where I can generate a lightning strike animation of, for example, the last 24 hours? Can't seem to find anywhere that lets me download it.

http://en.blitzortung.org/archive_data.php

Just change the time parameters accordingly and set Map Selection to UK under the Image menu. 🙂

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27 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I have an cannon 750d but have never got it to the right setting for lightning. Will be out tomorrow evening 100% so maybe be able to get it to work. Will you be round my area again @Flash bang flash bang etc?  

I won’t be going as far afield this time - driving home for 2 hours half asleep isn’t fun 😅

Also I don’t want to think about how many poor froggies I may have squished on the way back 😢

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5 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Fab pics everyone! We had a few crumbs from the rich man's table around 4am, nothing spectacular but enough to grab some shots. Canon 60D with Canon 10-22mm lens. I also have trouble with getting clean focus, not so much the lightning but the background (or lack of it in mid Norfolk!). I could have done with being another 20 miles further S and E but as I cricked my neck really badly minutes before leaving I stayed local, about a mile from home lol. Quite cross as I could have grabbed some daylight pics but forgot to keep the shutter to around 5 sec. 

Storm1.jpg

Storm2.jpg

Storm5.jpg

Storm6.jpg

Storm7.jpg

STORM8.jpg

Storm9.jpg

Storm3a.jpg

You probably got the most picturesque part of the storm system! 😮

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Why have the most significant storms in the past 10 years been at night? 

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2 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Why have the most significant storms in the past 10 years been at night? 

Is it just down to the nature and timing of the plume destabilisation? In the evening it's more likely to have frequent elevated lightning or give us an MCS type storm

I suppose the more severe surface based supercells that we rarely get will always likely be day time events,(28/6/12 and 1/7/15 spring to mind) but these are few and far between, infact I think those 2 are the only significant large hail events of this decade?

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Thankyou to the many members who have shared some really quite amazing  pictures etc, hoping for a repeat tomorrow!!😍

Edited by northwestsnow

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High risk for Southern Scotland! Looks like abit of a messy setup tomorrow with several different chances for storms throughout the day, a very interesting day coming up if you include the potentially record breaking heat!

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Looks like a good risk tomorrow. Though after last night anything could happen. 

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Interesting to see the mention of the possibility of a couple of supercells and tornadoes tomorrow afternoon/evening in the NW from Convective Weather. Imagine if we break the record temperature in the SE meanwhile there are supercells breaking out in the West would be quite the weather day. 

Edited by Summerstorm

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18z GFS going for 36c for London area for tomorrow,so a good chance of temp. record going as gfs often under-estimates.

 

Another powder-keg day where storms are concerned.💣:oldgrin:

 

21-778UK.thumb.GIF.23f639252184cd11ac5ac46da278af59.GIF

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Look at this on the 12z EURO4 for Scotland!

I do hate being in the middle of the country at times, it always seems like we are too far away in any given direction from storms! 

image.thumb.png.b29ed6685d4dd37f2712d5307ef99301.png

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1 hour ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Fab pics everyone! We had a few crumbs from the rich man's table around 4am, nothing spectacular but enough to grab some shots. Canon 60D with Canon 10-22mm lens. I also have trouble with getting clean focus, not so much the lightning but the background (or lack of it in mid Norfolk!). I could have done with being another 20 miles further S and E but as I cricked my neck really badly minutes before leaving I stayed local, about a mile from home lol. Quite cross as I could have grabbed some daylight pics but forgot to keep the shutter to around 5 sec. 

Storm1.jpg

Storm2.jpg

Storm5.jpg

Storm6.jpg

Storm7.jpg

STORM8.jpg

Storm9.jpg

Storm3a.jpg

Glad you got in on the action finally Norfolk 😁

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4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Look at this on the 12z EURO4 for Scotland!

I do hate being in the middle of the country at times, it always seems like we are too far away in any given direction from storms! 

image.thumb.png.b29ed6685d4dd37f2712d5307ef99301.png

Yeah, UKV similar

184798329_viewimage(6).thumb.png.3fb15180630a98b205c07bd03e4d321d.png

Scotland have done pretty well this Summer.

Edited by Mapantz

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12 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Look at this on the 12z EURO4 for Scotland!

I do hate being in the middle of the country at times, it always seems like we are too far away in any given direction from storms! 

image.thumb.png.b29ed6685d4dd37f2712d5307ef99301.png

Sweet spot for me would be Edinburgh - looking at a temperature of 31c and it looks 100% primed for severe thunderstorms!

Seriously considering driving through after work tomorrow. (1 hour 36 minutes drive away)

It really does look particularly explosive tomorrow evening/night for parts of the Scottish Borders, Edinburgh and Fife.

Edited by Mr Frost

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday 

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 25 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 26 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:47 UTC Wed 24 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather rare setup is expected to develop across the British Isles on Thursday. A negatively-tilted upper trough will be located to the west over the Atlantic, placing the British Isles on its forward side with a shortwave rounding its base and lifting northwards during Thursday evening.

... SE ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON ...

Prior to this, poleward advection of a very warm airmass will occur characterised by a deep elevated mixed layer (EML), creating some remarkably steep mid-level lapse rates and acting as a cap to any surface-based convection. However, surface temperatures of 36-37C would be sufficient to erode this low-level cap and while an isolated surface-based thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over SE England during the second half of the afternoon, it is considered a rather low risk given a very dry profile and large dewpoint depression (cloud bases would likely be near 8,000 ft!). A slight warm nose at 800mb may also serve to inhibit deep convection.

... CS + SW ENGLAND / WALES / MIDLANDS / NW ENGLAND THURSDAY DAYTIME ...

Elsewhere, gradual moistening at the top of the EML (in the 600-700mb region) may lead to a few scattered elevated showers or thunderstorms developing over CS / SW England around noon, these then drifting northwards across Wales / Midlands / Irish Sea / NW England through the afternoon. The depth of convection will likely be quite shallow, so lightning may be somewhat sporadic and very hit-and-miss. Given the very deep hot, dry airmass beneath the cloud base (also approx 8,000 ft, but note this is from elevated convection rather than the surface-based convection mentioned earlier) any rain would likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

... NW MIDLANDS / N + NW ENGLAND / S SCOTLAND THURSDAY EVENING ...

Elevated showers / thunderstorms will arrive in the north Midlands and N / NW England mid-late afternoon. There is scope for these to become rooted within the boundary layer and / or other surface-based thunderstorms to develop more widely through the evening hours, leading to a rather complex and messy convective evolution with the potential for a mixture of both elevated and surface-based thunderstorms. Either way, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage as they continue to drift northwards, with the best multi-model agreement by the time they reach southern Scotland - hence the inclusion of a HIGH risk area. 

Strong deep layer shear, with some backing at the low-levels, suggests a couple of supercells will be possible, capable of producing very frequent lightning, large hail 3-4cm in diameter and, if storms can remain surface-based, the risk of a tornado or two. A SVR has been introduced to cover the threat of large hail, flash flooding and perhaps a tornado.

... E / SE ENGLAND THURSDAY EVENING / NIGHT ...

As the upper trough continues to approach from the southwest, continued cooling aloft and gradual moistening of the vertical profile, overspreading the poleward advection of the EML below, will result increasing instability by the evening hours with MLCAPE 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg expected. This combined with increased forcing as the shortwave approaches has the potential to develop scattered elevated thunderstorms during the evening and night hours, particularly from the 700-750mb layer (bases around 7,000 ft). Initial focus would be SE England, with thunderstorms also developing over France and drifting NNW-wards towards these areas. Additional elevated thunderstorms may also develop farther north across eastern England and into eastern Scotland as the night progresses.

However, it is noted that model guidance is less clear-cut than with the thunderstorms on Tuesday night, particularly as profiles may remain quite dry and forcing fairly subtle. As such, there is some uncertainty over just how many thunderstorms may develop on Thursday evening / night, and exactly where and at what time. Winds will likely be fairly unidirectional with height, but there may be some workable shear to help cell organisation. The magnitude of CAPE/shear and fast vertical motions brings the threat of some large hail, although the size that reaches the ground will be subject to partial melting through the hot, dry layer beneath the cloud base. Lightning could be very frequent in the most intense storms. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-25

only in the slight zone for me and looking quite unremarkable compared with Tuesday but go north and east and there's a lot for storm lovers to like

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I hope we get a nice powerful surface based thunderstorm. Elevated storms are nice but none of that loud thunder I crave so much. Wanna hear something like bombs going off ala tropical thunderstorms.

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