Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[GeordieX9v]

Can see frequent lightning over Berwick from Ashington.

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, SkyDreamer said:

For your information, I was not stating that the set-up tonight is the same as Tuesday Night's, so don't put words in my mouth.

I was essentially saying, since you missed the point. Despite the fact models and data may show a certain set-up, like I mentioned on Tuesday evening, doesn't actually mean anything.

Storms are fickle, the set-up may show certain areas being more prone, however, like we saw with Tuesday evening's storms. They iniated further East than the models predicted. That's my point, there is always uncertainity regardless of what the set-up is/ projections for storm development.

 

I did not put words in your mouth, this is what you said...

“Uh it's 21:30... Most storms on Tuesday night did not explode into life until after 11pm.

Calling something a bust without any real evidence for it, is... well kinda off. To put it nicely.”

You were criticising others (possibly myself as I at this time was citing pessimism) and comparing tonight to Tuesday after 11pm.p All models I’d seen (and most others no doubt) indicated storms developing broadly between 16z and 21z then moving north(ish). Tuesday night however suggested storm development right into the night - hence my comment that people’s despondency was probably based on the models/charts (as were mine) and shouldn’t rely on Tuesday night as a basis for optimism.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Harry

[SkyDreamer]

3 minutes ago, Scott Page said:

Can you believe it? Yet ANOTHER bust for this area of Cheshire. 8th time in a row where we have had massive storms forecasted and we haven't even had a drop of rain. Absolute bull. I will no longer be looking at the forecast anymore as you change plans for nothing. They categorically said this morning that there would be dangerous amounts of rainfall and lightning this afternoon or evening. But as I said for the 8th time nothing has happened. Rubbish. 

That's a forecast, a forecast isn't a guarantee.

Storms like Snow can be very hard to predict, so they use a wider-general area for forecasts, as it's possible that storms could have developed/ affected your neck of the woods.

You never know, there's still plenty of energy in the atmosphere for more storms to develop. Especially Elevated storms.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

7 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Which way is that new cell in Kent moving? Is it going to do the same as everything else and go up the North Sea? 

yes but just lots of gusts now with little thunder ;-;

[tomdewey]

It is feels humid over in Warminster in Wiltshire in South and West and the weather earlier made me excited but it was teasing me

 

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

and @Harry

I am all

I am quite surprised...I thought the MCS business would suppress activity nearby. 

No action this part of the world unfortunately (SE London/NW Kent). Modelled instability still around for a while yet so not totally out of luck...but nothing observed yet.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

oh my..
.

[Frosty hollows]

Look at that system hugging the heat from the Norfolk coastline

[poseidon]

Still seeing odd distant CG forks from out east. Nice night for lightning watching.

[Harry]

That’s enough for me - off for shut eye. If I get woken, great. If not, least I’ve had a good nights sleep (if I get off at all!)

[SkyDreamer]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

I did not put words in your mouth, this is what you said...

“Uh it's 21:30... Most storms on Tuesday night did not explode into life until after 11pm.

Calling something a bust without any real evidence for it, is... well kinda off. To put it nicely.”

You were criticising others (possibly myself as I at this time was citing pessimism) and comparing tonight to Tuesday after 11pm.p All models I’d seen (and most others no doubt) indicated storms developing broadly between 16z and 21z then moving north(ish). Tuesday night however suggested storm development right into the night - hence my comment that people’s despondency was probably based on the models/charts (as were mine).

The storms that were around before sundown besides the MCS over the SE; were mostly surface based driven storms/ systems. Although models and charts can be a good tool, they are not 100% reliable which is my point. So when people declare something to be a dud, before an event is even over is silly to me. That was my original point from my statement not criticising people for their use of models/ data/ charts etc.

I'm not sitting here claiming I'm an expert, although people shouldn't put some much faith in forecasts and predicitions only to let themselves down when a storm or whatever other weather phenomna doesn't appear. I don't see what's wrong/ difficult in saying that.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

interesting

[Zak M]

Currently in Florida 

Edited July 25, 2019 by zmstorm

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

All week people have been shouting bust at their phones, at trees, at other people’s pets, at the sky... and for no good reason.

Just because you get tired doesn’t mean the weather stops working. There’s plenty of time for initiation - especially when you consider it wasn’t even supposed to have started yet - aaaaand guess what? IT HASN'T EVEN STARTED YET!

I think people misreading forecasts doesn’t help either - instability should hang around for a while yet - and the storms are relying on SBCAPE and EML instability.

Also - you can’t claim a model to be wrong and then subsequently use model-derived parameters to prove your point that it’s all over. That doesn’t work.

Lets give it until at least 1am before we start questioning things. If you’re too tired to do that then I have a second option for you - GET SOME SLEEEEEP!

Now please stop arguing - it’s hot enough everywhere already!

Edited July 25, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

even more interesting

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, SkyDreamer said:

The storms that were around before sundown besides the MCS over the SE; were mostly surface based driven storms/ systems. Although models and charts can be a good tool, they are not 100% reliable which is my point. So when people declare something to be a dud, before an event is even over is silly to me. That was my original point from my statement not criticising people for their use of models/ data/ charts etc.

I'm not sitting here claiming I'm an expert, although people shouldn't put some much faith in forecasts and predicitions only to let themselves down when a storm or whatever other weather phenomna doesn't appear. I don't see what's wrong/ difficult in saying that.

There isn’t anything wrong with highlighting that at all @SkyDreamer but as predictions go Tuesday was fairly accurate model wise (compared to some plume events which were totally off beat). You’re absolutely right that these setups are very unpredictable and I agree 100% that anything can happen - but it isn’t unreasonable in my view when models/charts do not indicate anything for you, or so but nothing appears in that timeframe, to be despondent when that is what results. 

However, if models (generally) indicate activity developing at 11pm and they’re writing it off at 8pm... quite right, I too am

For the record, I am FAR from an expert - I’ve just been following these things for probably 20 years or so now so have a nose for things but (like the experts and super computer models) am often surprised or wrong.

Ive still not see any model offer up opportunities this late in my area so I’m off to get some shut eye... @Flash bang flash bang etc If I miss a storm or am woken by a clap of thunder, I owe you a drink

Edited July 25, 2019 by Harry

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Mitch perrott said:

even more interesting

Looks like France is on fire

Edited July 25, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Thunderstruck]

Well anything that does happen tonight I’ll know about because no way am I getting to sleep in the sweatbox that is my bedroom... can’t wait until tomorrow

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

dont laugh at meeeeeeee i have hope

[Scott Page]

15 minutes ago, SkyDreamer said:

That's a forecast, a forecast isn't a guarantee.

Storms like Snow can be very hard to predict, so they use a wider-general area for forecasts, as it's possible that storms could have developed/ affected your neck of the woods.

You never know, there's still plenty of energy in the atmosphere for more storms to develop. Especially Elevated storms.

I understand that, but they can say its going to be hot and sunny with a very slight risk of a few drops of rain, that would be much more appropriate. And if it does storm that's an added bonus. But all these Amber warnings of stormaggedon that amount to nothing is so annoying coz as I said it means you have to plan accordingly ie not going on days out etc. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Mitch perrott said:

dont laugh at meeeeeeee i have hope

You genuinely made me smile with the beguiling graphic. We need something to smile about - so thank you

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looks like France is on fire

even more interesting!

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You genuinely made me smile with the beguiling graphic. We need something to smile about - so thank you

my goal is to make everyone happy, no worries haha

[Supacell]

26 minutes ago, Scott Page said:

Can you believe it? Yet ANOTHER bust for this area of Cheshire. 8th time in a row where we have had massive storms forecasted and we haven't even had a drop of rain. Absolute bull. I will no longer be looking at the forecast anymore as you change plans for nothing. They categorically said this morning that there would be dangerous amounts of rainfall and lightning this afternoon or evening. But as I said for the 8th time nothing has happened. Rubbish. 

This is the place for getting a lack of storms off your chest.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Scott Page said:

I understand that, but they can say its going to be hot and sunny with a very slight risk of a few drops of rain, that would be much more appropriate. And if it does storm that's an added bonus. But all these Amber warnings of stormaggedon that amount to nothing is so annoying coz as I said it means you have to plan accordingly ie not going on days out etc. 

But... but... but.... it’s you who decided to stormchase or stay in or whatever you’ve chosen to do.

Go on a day out if you want, don’t blame hardworking forecasters for making you miss a good time. Storms do what the fuDGE they want