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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
2 minutes ago, John90 said:

Look how quickly that small cell popped up east of Brighton. This isn't one of those situation where a storm moves through and that's it. The juicy air is constantly being replaced behind. 

Oh thanks for pointing that out! Gives me hope for later for London area

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
4 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Here comes the rain but still no electrical activity and I’m honestly starting to wonder if there will be now

Bitzortung is showing huge strke totals.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Not calling anything a bust until later tonight, the chances for Lincolnshire I think will be sometime before midnight if I'm right in saying

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
13 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I swear when you’re waiting to hear thunder absolutely everything sounds like it...

Yup that really annoys me, I’ve got trains coming past, bikes and planes around me lol

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 25 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 26 Jul 2019

ISSUED 18:47 UTC Thu 25 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 18:47 UTC Right-moving supercell over NE England  continues to lift NE into the SE Borders. A new line of storms is heading due north towards Edinburgh along the line of our original HIGH risk area!

UPDATE 17:55 UTC Adjustments made over northern England / southern Scotland based on latest trends in guidance. HIGH risk shifted south to cover right-moving storm complex, with a history of producing golf ball sized hail. Very frequent lightning accompanies these storms. It is still unclear how many elevated thunderstorms may develop elsewhere in east and southeast England this evening and overnight, but any that do occur may produce some notable heat bursts with very strong gusts of wind

A rather rare setup is expected to develop across the British Isles on Thursday. A negatively-tilted upper trough will be located to the west over the Atlantic, placing the British Isles on its forward side with a shortwave rounding its base and lifting northwards during Thursday evening.

... SE ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON ...

Prior to this, poleward advection of a very warm airmass will occur characterised by a deep elevated mixed layer (EML), creating some remarkably steep mid-level lapse rates and acting as a cap to any surface-based convection. However, surface temperatures of 36-37C would be sufficient to erode this low-level cap and while an isolated surface-based thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over SE England during the second half of the afternoon, it is considered a rather low risk given a very dry profile and large dewpoint depression (cloud bases would likely be near 8,000 ft!). A slight warm nose at 800mb may also serve to inhibit deep convection.

... CS + SW ENGLAND / WALES / MIDLANDS / NW ENGLAND THURSDAY DAYTIME ...

Elsewhere, gradual moistening at the top of the EML (in the 600-700mb region) may lead to a few scattered elevated showers or thunderstorms developing over CS / SW England around noon, these then drifting northwards across Wales / Midlands / Irish Sea / NW England through the afternoon. The depth of convection will likely be quite shallow, so lightning may be somewhat sporadic and very hit-and-miss. Given the very deep hot, dry airmass beneath the cloud base (also approx 8,000 ft, but note this is from elevated convection rather than the surface-based convection mentioned earlier) any rain would likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

... NW MIDLANDS / N + NW ENGLAND / S SCOTLAND THURSDAY EVENING ...

Elevated showers / thunderstorms will arrive in the north Midlands and N / NW England mid-late afternoon. There is scope for these to become rooted within the boundary layer and / or other surface-based thunderstorms to develop more widely through the evening hours, leading to a rather complex and messy convective evolution with the potential for a mixture of both elevated and surface-based thunderstorms. Either way, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage as they continue to drift northwards, with the best multi-model agreement by the time they reach southern Scotland - hence the inclusion of a HIGH risk area. 

Strong deep layer shear, with some backing at the low-levels, suggests a couple of supercells will be possible, capable of producing very frequent lightning, large hail 3-4cm in diameter and, if storms can remain surface-based, the risk of a tornado or two. A SVR has been introduced to cover the threat of large hail, flash flooding and perhaps a tornado.

... E / SE ENGLAND THURSDAY EVENING / NIGHT ...

As the upper trough continues to approach from the southwest, continued cooling aloft and gradual moistening of the vertical profile, overspreading the poleward advection of the EML below, will result increasing instability by the evening hours with MLCAPE 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg expected. This combined with increased forcing as the shortwave approaches has the potential to develop scattered elevated thunderstorms during the evening and night hours, particularly from the 700-750mb layer (bases around 7,000 ft). Initial focus would be SE England, with thunderstorms also developing over France and drifting NNW-wards towards these areas. Additional elevated thunderstorms may also develop farther north across eastern England and into eastern Scotland as the night progresses.

However, it is noted that model guidance is less clear-cut than with the thunderstorms on Tuesday night, particularly as profiles may remain quite dry and forcing fairly subtle. As such, there is some uncertainty over just how many thunderstorms may develop on Thursday evening / night, and exactly where and at what time. Winds will likely be fairly unidirectional with height, but there may be some workable shear to help cell organisation. The magnitude of CAPE/shear and fast vertical motions brings the threat of some large hail, although the size that reaches the ground will be subject to partial melting through the hot, dry layer beneath the cloud base. Lightning could be very frequent in the most intense storms, with the risk of some very strong gusts of wind.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-25

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can people please read forecasts and not just jump to the random conclusion that for some reason all the energy at all levels of the atmosphere has gone - simply based on a hunch or based on looking at a cloud or a patch of blue sky. This happened Tuesday - and not naming names at all (tbh there’s too many of you!) but you really need to develop a little patience.

It it helps there will be forcing from the east - later - that will push the warm air up and should start convection of the upper layer. This storm should be very strong. It will be in the south east. It will move north west (ish). It will start in France. French bread is nice. I like cheese. The world is flat. I need help.

I’ve liked your post on the hope you’re right.

I just haven’t seen the model which suggests this will happen.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Oh thanks for pointing that out! Gives me hope for later for London area

Also the sky was looking very stable about an hour ago but now its filled with acas again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
15 minutes ago, LionKingGamer said:

Not much Lightning now over London. Game Over for London / SE

Well clearly it’s not game over, cell just popped up near Brighton further west so there is still plenty of energy in the atmosphere

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Bitzortung is showing huge strke totals.

Not in the right area though sadly, I’ve had a cell go to the west through London, another to the east up the North Sea, and one that gave up when it reached the Essex bank of the Thames

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
10 minutes ago, Pat Butcher said:

So this trough that’s meant to come in from the East, creating storms moving from West to East... When’s it meant to hit, and how could I find it on a model chart?

Red = upper troughs
Blue = cold front

384083917_Annotation2019-07-25203309.thumb.jpg.ca64432525bddb0b8d2081eb41561430.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, NLC
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
8 minutes ago, Onding said:

I don't think that is from the cold front.

Seems to be right on cue with the jetstream, check the tracking difference from the storms in the SE UK, also notice how the storms are now mostly heading out to the North Sea as the cold front approaches. 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, NLC
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
8 minutes ago, Onding said:

I don't think that is from the cold front.

Seems to be right on cue with the jetstream, check the tracking difference from the storms in the SE UK, also notice how the storms are now mostly heading out to the North Sea as the cold front approaches. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 minute ago, John90 said:

Also the sky was looking very stable about an hour ago but now its filled with acas again. 

Really? Love it! I’m still sat under the anvil from the decaying storm that side swiped us.

Hoping there’s a trigger!

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

Look at all that mammatus!!! Never seen this before ever, especially wasn’t expecting it in the uk. 

 

946D863E-0B9C-4375-994F-9BCCBC4083DA.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Look at all that mammatus!!! Never seen this before ever, especially wasn’t expecting it in the uk. 

 

946D863E-0B9C-4375-994F-9BCCBC4083DA.jpeg

Surprisingly not as uncommon as you think. 

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
6 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Not calling anything a bust until later tonight, the chances for Lincolnshire I think will be sometime before midnight if I'm right in saying

few rumbles of thunder and a cpl of flashes of lightening just to the south of us, just light rain here now

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
1 minute ago, Harry said:

Really? Love it! I’m still sat under the anvil from the decaying storm that side swiped us.

Hoping there’s a trigger!

Yes. I have a decent view west from my flat. Just had a quick look outside to the east and i'm under the anvil too. The western edge of the MCS is decaying now.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Disappointingly far east now. Sky looks really MCS like but lightning seems to have died a death round this way. Just had some big convective rain drops and it's absolutely sweltering. Essex temperatures and humidity over the last few years have been incredible. Car temperature gauge got up to 40 degs today!

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL

Some circling being done by these 5 flights due in Heathrow

 

 

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Edited by OddSpot
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