Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[oliverek7]

Loads of rumbles in south London now! Isolate storm?

[summer blizzard]

I’m both optimistic and concerned here.

If you look at the sat you can see the kind of line from the north west clump, south east clump and one further in France. 

Now if they stay clumped along the axis then we here may get nothing but equally we could see convection develop roughly in a line between them.

Without a blow up it looks like we here in Yorkshire probably have an hour or two to wait.

Edited July 25, 2019 by summer blizzard

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

More cells firing just east of Boulogne.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Loads of rumbles in south London now! Isolate storm?

Correct.

[Hodgheg]

Hey guys. Currently in hersham looking east. Fairly small high based storm spitting out some nice cg's 

[mikeyd]

19 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Northern cell definitely looks like a right turner- anyone up there with a camera?

I'm about 7 miles NNW of Keswick, watching the radar as it passes me by to the East (again).  Not so much as a drop of rain or a distant rumble yet but I haven't given up hope.

[Met4Cast]

Somewhere is going to be sat underneath this for quite a while, could be some pretty spectacular flash flooding!

[LightningLover]

Really strong wind!!!! It’s like a hairdryer!!! really good gust front!!!! 

[StormLoser]

Cell has now passed north from Reigate - actually two side by side. Not very electrified - but when they do fire - you know about it. No rain from them, I think that missed us by half a mile or so,

It looks like the Channel mass will miss here completely.  

Edited July 25, 2019 by StormLoser

[ancientsolar]

are conditions likely to destabilise further ?

[oliverek7]

1 deep rumble

 

[LightningLover]

Some good CGs hitting the sea, too.

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I’m both optimistic and concerned here.

If you look at the sat you can see the kind of line from the north west clump, south east clump and one further in France. 

Now if they stay clumped along the axis then we here may get nothing but equally we could see convection develop roughly in a line between them.

Large system..  and I think thats a good point. Is it not supportive of massive convection throughout the whole of this line? Quite dangerous too, as it chucks out storm cells ahead and to the side of the cell line.

[oliverek7]

Rain starting as well!

[ChezWeather]

This cell is the one to watch for the far North, more active than the rest and has a huge purple core on radar, possibly indicating large hail. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by ChezWeather

[Guest]

I don't have very high hopes for here (the usual too far east and west BS) , but hopefully something can develop reasonably close (ish) to the east for a good after dark display.

[convector]

This all looks elevated still - everything is racing away north and not rooting to the boundary layer at all. 

[northwestsnow]

Absolutely nothing happening here western Pennines..

[Wilxy]

2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

are conditions likely to destabilise further ?

Yes its happening now across the SE!!

[Azazel]

Think Newcastle/Sunderland might be in for a treat.

[P-M]

The northern storm is really pounding away - as @ChezWeather has alluded to really is a little beast and throwing a lot of lightining out.  it's moved right I'd guess this is showing some supercellular characteristics.  Be good for someone more knowledgable to give their ideas?

[convector]

Just now, ChezWeather said:

This cells is the one to watch for the far North, more active than the rest and has a huge purple core on radar, possibly indicating large hail. 

Looks like a supercell. Strike rates 100/min and deviating right of the mean wind. 

[jtay]

TMS are now talking about distant lightning at Lord's. The following boom came across on the radio.

Playing on for now. Quite right.

Edit : They're off. Looks miles away on the radar.

Edited July 25, 2019 by jtay

[Mr Frost]

22 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Estofex

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 25 Jul 2019 16:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2019 20:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jul 2019 16:38
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Across the Lake District, a complex of thunderstorms has developed within an environment of around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong, around 20 m/s, 0-3 km wind shear, supportive of supercells. Thus, large hail will be a distinct threat. It is likely that the storms will produce strong outflow, given the deep boundary layer in place. In combination with the strong lower tropospheric shear, the risk of a forward propagating bow echo exists, which should be capable of producing a swath of damaging wind gusts.

That is simply bonkers.

These cells are kicking off! 

Borders, Edinburgh, Fife are in for some severe thunderstorms very shortly.

[LightningLover]

Crazy! Wind gusting to 60nph!!!