Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Weather-history]

Pieces of altocumulus castellanus about. 

[Gordon Webb]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Could be an interesting day, appears to be a little more moisture down south than was suggested yesterday, DPs across the south coast 16-20c. I think anywhere east of east Devon could get spotty thunderstorms anytime from the next couple of hours. 

mentioned on convective weather in their forecast

relevant portion below

.. CS + SW ENGLAND / WALES / MIDLANDS / NW ENGLAND THURSDAY DAYTIME ...

Elsewhere, gradual moistening at the top of the EML (in the 600-700mb region) may lead to a few scattered elevated showers or thunderstorms developing over CS / SW England around noon, these then drifting northwards across Wales / Midlands / Irish Sea / NW England through the afternoon. The depth of convection will likely be quite shallow, so lightning may be somewhat sporadic and very hit-and-miss. Given the very deep hot, dry airmass beneath the cloud base (also approx 8,000 ft, but note this is from elevated convection rather than the surface-based convection mentioned earlier) any rain would likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

[Lu.]

3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

oooo! keep me posted....

I will join you if you come to Worthing

But was thinking of getting the train over to Brighton cos the warning areas were East of me in Worthing. 

Will do...

This is where I struggle as Portsmouth is showing 80% chance of storms after midnight, Southampton 75%.

Brighton / Worthing 0%  

I’m an indecisive person as it is  

[Supacell]

32 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A bit of a dilemma in my head going on. Do I get the car keys out and take a big trip up the A1, or wait until the evening and night, when possible storms could fire up over France and the south? 

This is a toughie! I’d hate to be on a wild chase trying to catch up with cells and then miss a corker of a night show at home, but be gutted if nothing comes of tonight and there’s bedlam further north... 

In a similar situation here. Some models show NW England looking very good this afternoon, with that area between Liverpool and Blackpool especially later on. Other models have NE England, with S Yorkshire north and east from late afternoon onwards but not much further south. Other models show the stuff moving up from France across the eastern half of England but not much further north.

This reminds me of July 20th 2016 where most (not all) models favoured NE England but hardly any went for SE England, and so I ended up near Hartlepool. That afternoon all hell broke loose across eastern England and there was very little further north. A day where I spent a lot of petrol, hours in a boiling hot car and travelled the wrong way. It looks a risky day today for chasing, but the rewards could be big.

[tomp456]

Just now, Lu. said:

Will do...

This is where I struggle as Portsmouth is showing 80% chance of storms after midnight, Southampton 75%.

Brighton / Worthing 0%  

I’m an indecisive person as it is  

It's odd as we are both in the same  slight warnings on https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/ .... and Brighton just about skims the moderate.

I find the will it thunder to be garbage. I've had storms when its been on 0% and haven't had them when on 85%+.

 

I defo shan't be in Brighton at midnight lol 

 

TIme will tell! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

In a similar situation here. Some models show NW England looking very good this afternoon, with that area between Liverpool and Blackpool especially later on. Other models have NE England, with S Yorkshire north and east from late afternoon onwards but not much further south. Other models show the stuff moving up from France across the eastern half of England but not much further north.

This reminds me of July 20th 2016 where most (not all) models favoured NE England but hardly any went for SE England, and so I ended up near Hartlepool. That afternoon all hell broke loose across eastern England and there was very little further north. A day where I spent a lot of petrol, hours in a boiling hot car and travelled the wrong way. It looks a risky day today for chasing, but the rewards could be big.

Very true. We just don’t know or have no scope/idea until things actually get going, it could be that activity decides to kick off more to the East of the area, and south too. Someone highlighted that there appears to already be more moisture levels further south than previously modelled. 

We saw how things developed 2 nights ago much further east, and actually mainly outside of the level 2 estofex area. It’s a complex job to get right, as a storm chaser! Americans even say it in the supercell capital of the world! Seen many a debate on storm chasing days and videos! 

[AndyK]

9 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Will do...

This is where I struggle as Portsmouth is showing 80% chance of storms after midnight, Southampton 75%.

Brighton / Worthing 0%  

I’m an indecisive person as it is  

Sure hoping for some action in Southampton tonight. The Air con in the car has died so I really can’t face a drive anywhere else in this heat. Camera batteries charged and mem cards cleared just in case.

[mike5900]

Showers now over northern France. And English Channel moving north. 

[Azazel]

Just waiting for the PJB update then i'll make a decision regarding this eve. Edit: Sferics detected from that little shower north of Cherbourg?

Edited July 25, 2019 by Azazel

[Supacell]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Very true. We just don’t know or have no scope/idea until things actually get going, it could be that activity decides to kick off more to the East of the area, and south too. Someone highlighted that there appears to already be more moisture levels further south than previously modelled. 

We saw how things developed 2 nights ago much further east, and actually mainly outside of the level 2 estofex area. It’s a complex job to get right, as a storm chaser! Americans even say it in the supercell capital of the world! Seen many a debate on storm chasing days and videos! 

Euro4 are normally very accurate, and had I followed Euro4 on the 20th July 2016 I would have been in the storms. They nailed Tuesday night perfectly too. If I trust them then it looks like Convective Weather is closest with regards to England and storms will be in multiple rounds. First the western half into N England this afternoon, then the far SE this evening and then more widely across E England overnight. Therefore for me, the NW stuff may be too early to get to, so I may concentrate further east. However, I will await the 6z updates.

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Euro4 are normally very accurate, and had I followed Euro4 on the 20th July 2016 I would have been in the storms. They nailed Tuesday night perfectly too. 

It depends what you mean by nailed on, euro 4 looked a bit ropey for Tuesday more than 24 hours out.

This was Monday 18z 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone. 

Looks like things are just starting to brew up around here. 

 

[todd1970]

I'm in the SVR zone for later on tonight , but i'm not holding my breath , been a total let down so far this year with only 2 rumbles of thunder heard all year.

I do hope it happens obviously , its just a waiting game..

[CCJD1983]

@Dangerous55019 They sure are I'm keeping my eyes out in Hawarden at the moment. It's going NNW'ish at the moment. I can see a pretty decent amount off cumulus already gathering that way.

 

[CCJD1983]

 A nice pano for you guys!  

[StormChaseUK]

First signs of accass from south.

[mike5900]

Some lightning near South coast

[Mapantz]

Here's the UKV at 2pm and 6pm

 

[Matty88]

Whilst the charts are remaining cautious (esp precipitation wise)... the ingredients seem to be there in abundance (more or less) today, with scattered cumulous already building. Its most definitely going to be an interesting day... I'm optimistic us in EA may well catch something decent especially tonight. I would rather a daytime surface based storm however as these tend to hold the most severe threats, it seems more Northern parts may be best for this at this moment in time. 

I am getting the feeling it'll be all eyes on the radar by 6pm this evening...tonight could be a real corker in terms of lightning! 

[Stormhog]

This is from Met Monkey, always found him o be more reliable than anywhere else.
 

 

[Azazel]

Sferics definitely showing on that cell in the channel's eastern side.

[Mapantz]

Sunshine now gone

[Karl83]

Wow - nice Netweather Storm Forecast for the North. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Any convection over land before, say, 3pm will likely be quite shallow and of the pulse variety - and will only really serve to hold back the full extent of insolation possible here in the south, so I would hope for surface based storms to try and fire in the SE and CS mid-afternoon onwards

[Azazel]

PJB puts me in the purple box!

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121924-convective-outlook-thursday-25th-july-2019/