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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
3 minutes ago, Lu. said:

What are you looking at? Rain radar has nothing in the area. The wind has most definitely picked up. 

Thinking you might get the stuff from France, or at least see it distant - if the sky is clear enough

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

I fancy the Nottingham cell to spark first

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

looks further east than forecast....as always. At least it won’t be a Kent clipper this time though! 

380C0E59-D5EA-464B-BF79-0DD3711A08FE.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Lightning, Tornado, Hurricane, Heatwave
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire

Looks like initiation in Wales. That went off fast, 2 radar scans!

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Rain radar seems to show tiny 'cells' beginning to pop up in an area of the Channel NW of the channel Islands? Could be a go soon?

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Just now, SarahWxm said:

Where in Wales? 

South of Aberystwyth

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms/Rain
  • Location: Portsmouth
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Thinking you might get the stuff from France, or at least see it distant - if the sky is clear enough

Alright. Well I’ll give it an hour to see the deal. If not I’ll head home if that lot reaches

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
2 minutes ago, SarahWxm said:

Where in Wales? 

one approaching Snowdon, looks very heavy precip, - not Snowdon, heading NE towards Chester. but currently near Aberystwyth
one just hitting Cardiff, currently light-mod rain shower, developing quickly
and another one coming over from the main rain from Cornwall-Devon .. possible hitting Swansea soon

Edited by ancientsolar
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, NE Wales
  • Location: Wrexham, NE Wales
Just now, ancientsolar said:

one approaching Snowdon, looks very heavy precip,
one just hitting Cardiff, currently light-mod rain shower, developing quickly
and another one coming over from the main rain from Cornwall-Devon .. possible hitting Swansea soon

Come on to north east wales!!!! Haha  

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

France stuff losing intensity

Looks like cloud tops are rising with decent lightning rate to me

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Posted
  • Location: Marple, Greater Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Marple, Greater Manchester

I note that ConvectiveWeather mention initiation mid/late afternoon over France in their forecast but this hasn’t happened as expected - how does this impact the evolution of the forecast from here? 

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Another cell just north of Brecon. UKV has cells exploding across Wales in the next hour.

Some large drops of rain just started here on what is a really humid evening. My fingers are crossed for later.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

pokey little number just gone up near Barnstaple/Bideford.......discrete cells over northern france drifting NNE, and now strikes detected west of the channel islands.......lights, action, camera!

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Looking at the hi-res models, AROME did well initiating the first cells over the Cherbourg area. A few hours later the model has cells exploding to life over SW'ern UK before becoming much more widespread across England and Wales by midnight.

image.thumb.png.ff0e39ae15e6184a0912307bf78ab0a4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
16 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Those cherbourg cells are tiny, and ties in with perhaps a few isolated storms towards the south east othernight. The main event is where that precipitation pushing into the sothwest, when that lights up it will be on a much bigger scale than what the south east may get

Whilst the charts would support that - I’m inclined to think those small cells have a chance of becoming beasts as they had north. Not only that, the more  isolated convection away from the main band may well pose the more severe threat with large hail etc, so not yet worth writing those off 

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset

My feeling is, if any storms pop off, it will be somewhere around Poole or just off the coast.

The wind is coming from the south east but the few clouds I can see are heading north east, wether that means anything, I have no idea

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