Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I admit things have been quieter then expected so far, especially in the SW, some of the forecasts have already got this really wrong. Here is a forecast that was shown earlier compared to the current radar... hmmmm...

 

Activity is being pushed now back to around 11pm / 12pm now. So not ringing the alarm bells just yet but if by then things are still flat I will start getting concerned.

Bust detector raised to level one alert........

[oliverek7]

3 minutes ago, LionKingGamer said:

I Mean this could be another big bust and something just doesn't click but that looks very unlikely. However im hoping for something over London/SE

Same here, those latest models showing the storms further east are looking promising! In my experience the past few storm events have always headed further east than expected so I’m hoping for that to happen tonight so us Londoners can get to see some action!

[Thunder and Lightning]

Anyone got a very detailed outlook for London cause I just don't know what to expect?!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Metcheck do a very good summary of what we are looking for over the next 2/3 hours:

Basically, what's happening is that a warm plume of upper level air (around 25c at 850mb) is pushing North. When you have air of this temperature at height then it creates a very strong CAP near the surface, after all, if you have surface air of 30c then cool it as it rises then it will be around 20c by the time it reaches 850mb which is 5c cooler than the air being drawn in. 

Later this evening though , we see a short wave trough start to come in from the Southwest and a shallow low pressure system move in from the South. These two events cause large scale uplift of the air which forces the warmer air through the cap and then allows it to continue to rise. 

A few other things going on including a strong jet streak across the SW of the UK will remove air from upper levels and allow surface air to continue to rise. 

[LionKingGamer]

Just now, MetWeather said:

Anyone got a very detailed outlook for London cause I just don't know what to expect?!

Expect the worst. Hope for the best

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Same here, those latest models showing the storms further east are looking promising! In my experience the past few storm events have always headed further east than expected so I’m hoping for that to happen tonight so us Londoners can get to see some action!

The Londoner gang is in for shifts east. All the others are just saying no. 

[stevofunnelcl]

someone said it'll start just after 9pm - and boom - something is lighting up in the channel, unless it's false readings

[Harsh Climate]

I'm thinking of having an early night and setting alarm for 2am as up for work 5am tmorrow morning :(. Either that or stay up all night

[SkyDreamer]

I can see some whispy cirrus clouds or what I think are cirrus clouds in the distance to my south. Haha

[Love Snow]

Leeds 

[DIS1970]

Try this link, a few of you may already know about it :- https://www.lightningmaps.org

[The PIT]

I'm off to bed and see what happens if anything at all.

The rest of you enjoy any storms that do pop up.

[Stabilo19]

10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Interesting that the latest Euro4, NetWx and UKMO predictions all bring London and the SE into play between 00z and 03z.

First signs of some Ac forming overhead now but very benign and not remotely AcCas. 

Interesting...

All depends on how much the trough extends it’s big toe towards the east...

An all too common occurence with these events.

Hope something kicks off soon, anywhere in the British Isles will do... 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, SkyDreamer said:

I can see some whispy cirrus clouds or what I think are cirrus clouds in the distance to my south. Haha

I’m seeing something more mid level off to my SSW @SkyDreamer but will report back when I’ve had my cool bath

[LightningLover]

Oooh, is that some lightning East of Cherbourg...?

[SkyDreamer]

Just now, Harry said:

I’m seeing something more mid level off to my SSW @SkyDreamer but will report back when I’ve had my cool bath

Enjoy your bath! God, do I need another shower. The sweat just never stops. Even if there are no storms anywhere, it's gonna be a killer night for those who don't have a fan by their beds!

[DanDorsetUK]

Cherbourg firing good sign 

[Thunder and Lightning]

PLAN: Stay up for now and watch TV. Then check radar.

IF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED: Stay Up.

ELSE: Go to bed with the window OPEN.

[Guest]

Just now, Rapodo said:

Cherbourg firing good sign 

Eh? Where? 

[LightningLover]

Just now, Alderc said:

Eh? Where? 

sferics on lightning maps

[Harry]

1 minute ago, SkyDreamer said:

Enjoy your bath! God, do I need another shower. The sweat just never stops. Even if there are no storms anywhere, it's gonna be a killer night for those who don't have a fan by their beds!

Fan sorted and already blowing a gale - of about 26C air

[ancientsolar]

Just noticing this line across the sky amongst the cloud.. 
What does it signify ? I only recall seeing it during hot thundery weather

Edited July 23, 2019 by ancientsolar

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Oh gawd, now they’re gonna predict thundergeddon over London...  

[LionKingGamer]

Something West of Caen has propped up. Hopefully that goes N/NE Towards London 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, ancientsolar said:

Just noticing this line across the sky amongst the cloud.. 
What does it signify ? I only recall seeing it during hot thundery weather

Nice! Saw this in Mallorca before a massive thundery downpour - and once over Petersfield before a big plume event