Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Is the area with heavy rain near Brest where storms will develop later or is it a bit early yet? 

Yep that’s the area to watch. Meto have the current precip nailed, not good for central and east Dorset......Maybe time to hit the mojitos.....

[Sun & Tanned]

16 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I would actually say you are likely to at least see some distant lightning this evening and overnight, given your location. Keep an eye on it!  I hope this helps.

Thank you so much 

[Jed Bickerdike]

So does everything look delayed now? Whereas northern england was looking like between 1-4am for activity could it be more like 3-7am?

[Chris K]

2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Anyone a bit concerned by the lack of action so far? Thought would have had more signs of activity by now and no signs of any instability in Dorset now. Very odd. 

There are showers approaching Cornwall and Devon and West of Brest - I think it is these that will develop as they move North/NE.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Chris K

[Summerstorm]

4 minutes ago, SarahWxm said:

Still 32c here and humidity unbearable. Can’t hardly breath it’s so bad! 

Is Wrexham NE Wales in the firing line for definite tonight? If so what time is it due to hit?

Hard to tell at the moment keep an eye on the radars for later most likely early morning between 1-3am but can't rule something out a bit earlier.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Summerstorm

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Yep that’s the area to watch. Meto have the current precip nailed, not good for central and east Dorset......Maybe time to hit the mojitos.....

Thought so, was just thinking it looks a tad more West on the radar, though from past radar watching storms can do an Eastward shift. Who knows 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Anyone a bit concerned by the lack of action so far? Thought would have had more signs of activity by now and no signs of any instability in Dorset now. Very odd. 

Not at all! The main action is primed for later. Eyes down towards France as the evening wears on. The radar will look very, very different in a few hours time.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, mikeofmacc said:

Looking good still, here in Manchester. Baking hot and a little humid.

Quick question about capturing a few photos of lightning here. Is it best to catch the lightning looking South as the storm rolls in or as it moves away to the North? I've got a North facing vantage point to keep my camera on a tripod dry, should we get something.

 

Mike.

You’ll get some excellent forked lightning as the storm rolls away. This is fast becoming the part of the storm I get particularly excited about

Saying that - videoing the approach often captures the atmosphere better as the sound seems to differ (probably the humidity).

All storms differ - some more subtly than others - this is one of the shots taken just over a month ago as that Kent clipper moved away:

It was one of the most awesome moments I’ve had during a storm so far - zero rain, almost silent lightning (was quite a way off) but the bolts reached for miles and miles.

You should be really well placed tonight for a corker of a lightshow- my sister, her cats and husband live in Rochdale and have one of the most incredible views to the west. Nearly went there tonight but I have work tomo in Londor

[SarahWxm]

1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Hard to tell at the moment keep an eye on the radars for later most likely early morning between 1-3am but can't rule something out a bit earlier.

Thanks, keep hoping but I always end up disappointed lol. The atmosphere feels absolutely primed for it, so humid and getting more so as the evening goes on. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Everyone needs to stop for an hour and have a cup of tea

Or another beer  

[Steve Shears]

A cell passed very close to dorset didn't it?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Or another beer  

If I had my own personal driver I would be lining them up

[Hodgheg]

34 minutes ago, Harry said:

Currently 29C and the most stable looking sky here. Am dissolving hope of any SE action this evening as has been tempted by a few models.

Good luck everyone!! Hope you have an amazing night!!

As an aside, app back to 39C for Thursday

Some echoes showing up south of IOW now.  Thought it might be false but its backed up by the satellite. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by John90

[Guest]

Would be chuffin bin day tomorrow as well  I just know I'm gonna be fooled when Doris over the road wheels her bin out at 11:45pm tonight  

[EllyTech]

Sferic just plotted In South Wales - on the edge of Margam Country Park, SE of Port Talbot area.

Edited July 23, 2019 by EllyTech
spelling

[OddSpot]

Looks a bit threatening on the Birmingham Airport webcam. Has sound as well

Bit of a pain when the picture/live stream goes off but just scroll back to the top of the page and press play again.

Birmingham Airport Webcam Link

[Met4Cast]

15 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Anyone a bit concerned by the lack of action so far? Thought would have had more signs of activity by now and no signs of any instability in Dorset now. Very odd. 

Nope, all going to plan so far. Storms are beginning to initiate to the south, was always expected to be later rather than sooner

[Cheshire Freeze]

People saying it's delayed- don't worry. It's one of those situations where things can destabilise rapidly in the space of about half an hour.

[Bangers & Flash]

Good luck tonight everyone!

Hoping to be in prime spot here for later  and luckily off work tomorrow too...

 

[ancientsolar]

I think the little storm over France early this afternoon got us all hyped up ,, and then the odd dash of sferics in other places also aided this.. 
now, I want to continue looking at cloud depths to see if anything is developing. 

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Nope, all going to plan so far. Storms are beginning to initiate to the south, was always expected to be later rather than sooner

My concern is once those echoes go they should literally pop suggesting they struggling to break the cap in place. Next hour or so critical for the SW imo. 

[ancientsolar]

Cornwall seems to have a rash more showers than approached it, it so may'be this is the start 

[ancientsolar]

5 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Sferic just plotted In South Wales - on the edge of Margam Country Park, SE of Port Talbert area.

oddly nothing has come up on Blitzortung, but I do see a relatively high top cloud around the area.. compared to everywhere else.

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

My concern is once those echoes go they should literally pop suggesting they struggling to break the cap in place. Next hour or so critical for the SW imo. 

Cells will begin breaking out along the leading edge of the EML plume as it moves north, anything that has already formed is more or less bonus viewing entertainment, post 9pm we should see things beginning to develop rapidly and widely 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Met4Cast

[Derecho]

Meto radar seems bullish on storms later

Storms moving up from Cornwall whilst a second batch forms further east over the IOW and moves North.

Shame its being so sluggish though, it may lose its spark by the time it reaches Hull as it'll be so late in the night...