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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Author
Posted
21 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Got a feeling I may need to head slightly West, thinking of finding a SW facing vantage point somewhere in the Peak District and waiting for whatever shows up. Good look everyone 

I am unsure what to do with this one. The advantage is roads will be clear at night, but the storms are going to be moving fast. Place yourself wrong and you'll never catch them back up. The overall idea is for storms to be strongest further west, with somewhere to the west of the Peak District looking very well placed. But then, Belper and Chesterfield are not that far behind in probability.

Storms will grow in spatial size quickly as they spread north so shouldn't be too hit and miss by the time they get here. 

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Mitch the motorbike storm Community Regular

Mitch the motorbike storm

Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
Posted
Just now, Alderc said:

No chance......

I could head to broadstairs beach and watch it cross the channel, there is a tiny trance of the storm being close enough to see, very small chance that is

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Raindrops Aficionado

Raindrops

Posted
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, NLC
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
Posted

Just thought I'd drop by and wish you all a happy hunt, looks like it's going to be an epic show .

Happy hunting/chasing.

Be safe in that rain and high winds, remember the trees are fully leafed.

I look forward to your photos and videos.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Everything points to early storms in the west reaching the pivot point near Gloucester and then fanning out from there to become more widespread over the central northern and northeastern extents by morning.

Kind Of like a convective version of Pink Floyd’s DSOTM album cover:

B3CB3AD7-CB49-4590-9340-8ADB5A1B31A9.jpeg

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Norfolk Sheep Seasoned

Norfolk Sheep

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Posted

I'll just be basking in this lush heat upstairs, sleeping like a baby. Too many busts for the east this year and this doesn't have our name on it (quelle surprise). 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am unsure what to do with this one. The advantage is roads will be clear at night, but the storms are going to be moving fast. Place yourself wrong and you'll never catch them back up. The overall idea is for storms to be strongest further west, with somewhere to the west of the Peak District looking very well placed. But then, Belper and Chesterfield are not that far behind in probability.

Storms will grow in spatial size quickly as they spread north so shouldn't be too hit and miss by the time they get here. 

I'm not fussed for a direct hit, though it would be nice for Sheffield to have that! Even if we miss 20 miles to the west say, the views of the storms flashing their way up from the south will be phenomenal. Thank goodness for the Peaks to get those viewpoints!  

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

UKMO Precip Map for midnight

image.thumb.png.a86c1f8a1a3c17a7c9bd6f5b6940db46.png

It's exactly the same as the UKV. It shows nothing for Dorset or Hampshire and that's why I am ignoring it.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
Just now, Mapantz said:

It's exactly the same as the UKV. It shows nothing for Dorset or Hampshire and that's why I am ignoring it.

But Ventusky has been showing something similar for days now - albeit with more widespread activity north of Bristol

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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

Hoping Mother Nature throws us a surprise because I’m about to head out into the Hampshire countryside. Good luck everyone!

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

Some pretty rapid developments here atm don’t expect much until after dark though 

BF38B716-4841-4C83-8869-E4DE04B41EB5.jpeg

51A81B37-E799-410C-A35C-8A797AEE284C.jpeg

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The 19:00 radar picture

1746855694_Screenshot2019-07-23at19_06_00.thumb.png.401c7d76f32227025979c11a88355bd4.png

The only model that even comes close is funnily enough the GFS, all other models do not have that area of rain.

AROME.thumb.jpg.584d7150e4a6bbd83d2dd5847167efaa.jpgGFS.thumb.jpg.ebcea027b8472be0618db9e99bbac810.jpgHIRLAM.thumb.jpg.bbc821c3109cbf4729a7c9559c72f042.jpgICON.thumb.jpg.db920f4272035888df2fa72476af1eb7.jpgUKV.thumb.png.d99081dd480f49107fbd1da3819e103b.png

It's probably expecting too much of the models to pick up a precise area of rain at the precise exact time I'll admit, but this does show that relying on models at this point is pretty pointless. None of them will have this right.

We can deconstruct it after the event to see which model came closest to overall track etc, but for the time being it's time to turn off the models and switch on the radars!

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Lu. Aficionado

Lu.

Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms/Rain
  • Location: Portsmouth
Posted

Time wasting is becoming increasingly difficult right now so I’m making a move to Bournemouth. Not looking at anything other then radars. 

The humidity is unreal for me at the moment.  

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Time wasting is becoming increasingly difficult right now so I’m making a move to Bournemouth. Not looking at anything other then radars. 

The humidity is unreal for me at the moment.  

Thought you were already there  

Nowcasting is definately the answer - everyone is saying opposite things to each other now

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Currently 29C and the most stable looking sky here. Am dissolving hope of any SE action this evening as has been tempted by a few models.

Good luck everyone!! Hope you have an amazing night!!

As an aside, app back to 39C for Thursday

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Time wasting is becoming increasingly difficult right now so I’m making a move to Bournemouth. Not looking at anything other then radars. 

The humidity is unreal for me at the moment.  

It’s juicy over here! Worst case beer on the cliff top! 

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Lu. Aficionado

Lu.

Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms/Rain
  • Location: Portsmouth
Posted
5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Thought you were already there  

Nowcasting is definately the answer - everyone is saying opposite things to each other now

Something came up and only just got my stuff together to leave. Plus traffic, we all know how bad it can be down there

 

still perfect blue sky’s here tho 

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted
11 minutes ago, Sun & Tanned said:

Still showing thunder for us on BBC And Netweather forecast but I thought we are too far east for anything?

Would anyone like to have a stab if I am likely to see anything here? 

Thank you for your help 

Screenshot_20190723-191007_BBC Weather.jpg

I would actually say you are likely to at least see some distant lightning this evening and overnight, given your location. Keep an eye on it!  I hope this helps.

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matt_in_dudley Contributor

matt_in_dudley

Posted
  • Location: Russells Hall, Dudley, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, hot sunshine and snowstorms
  • Location: Russells Hall, Dudley, West Midlands
Posted

Overcast, has started to rain here in Dudley... hour ago it was roasting, wall to wall sunshine. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Mid-level cloud reaching here now.

29C and it'll soon start feeling increasingly sultry as the humidity starts to creep up.

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