Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Azazel]

eagerly awaiting PJB's update on UKWW - I find him to be the most knowledgeable in these kind of scenarios.

[DanDorsetUK]

Millions of flying Ants in Bournemouth today! Always a good sign

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Rapodo said:

Millions of flying Ants in Bournemouth today! Always a good sign

They bite!! Hate 'em!!

[StormLoser]

It looks like I'll miss most of the fun tonight. I could drive west and be ready, but the thought of the M25, M3, A303....nope. Just no.

Thursday certainly looks like an interesting day.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

It looks like I'll miss most of the fun tonight. I could drive west and be ready, but the thought of the M25, M3, A303....nope. Just no.

Thursday certainly looks like an interesting day.

Yes, it looks at this stage like western Britain will be in the firing line.

[Azazel]

6 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Millions of flying Ants in Bournemouth today! Always a good sign

On the door at work just now. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Azazel said:

On the door at work just now. 

B15930CF-EF3A-45C8-A13A-9595C22DB73E.MOV

Oh my, they are in a frenzy!

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Millions of flying Ants in Bournemouth today! Always a good sign

I’ve ditched the protein shake, nearly full after my run and so many unintended victims

It’s not just the ants it the hoards of seagulls filling their face and then repainting everything......

[Azazel]

PJB update is out

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121888-convective-outlook-tuesday-23rd-july-2019/

[Frosty hollows]

I'm right on the eastern border of the meto warning, but think will miss out.  It's a beautiful sunny day with blue skies and a lovely light breeze. 28c already. Far less humid than yesterday (for now anyway). Doesn't feel remotely like anything will kick off later

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

PJB update is out

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121888-convective-outlook-tuesday-23rd-july-2019/

Inline with a few models now   Eastern extent  around Cov area   then migrating through the country towards the North East  

[Harry]

23 minutes ago, Azazel said:

eagerly awaiting PJB's update on UKWW - I find him to be the most knowledgeable in these kind of scenarios.

Even he was caught out by the MCS a few weeks ago - goes to show the nature of these things!

HIRLAM and ARPÈGE keen to give the SE some action tonight...

Edited July 23, 2019 by Harry

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Even he was caught out by the MCS a few weeks ago - goes to show the nature of these things!

HIRLAM and ARPÈGE keen to give the SE some action tonight...

Arpege  does indeed bring the front more easterly    brings areas around the Wash also into play.   The nature of this scenario is that anywhere could see some action 

[neil_b]

1 hour ago, SalopWatcher said:

One of those evenings where no chasing may be required for us in Shropshire.... We look well placed in just about all the charts and forecasts... Fingers crossed. 

 

I'm sitting in a SSW facing elevated position and can see lightning anywhere down across the Marches and into South Wales.  This is a really favourable setup for us tonight.

[TJS1998Tom]

Latest gfs showing slightly heavier precipitation over the East now 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by TJS1998Tom

[weirpig]

Arome  takes the band more West  most of the rain through the spine of the country     

[Gordon Webb]

44 minutes ago, Azazel said:

PJB update is out

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/121888-convective-outlook-tuesday-23rd-july-2019/

Looking at that I appear to just on the eastern most fringe of any potential 

[weirpig]

Euro 4   Seems to avoid the west ( Wales)   And go again through the Spine of the country then through the Hull Area

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Euro 4   Seems to avoid the west ( Wales)   And go again through the Spine of the country then through the Hull Area

This almost reminds me when there was a storm a year or so ago over Hull and it was massive. Could even see yellow lightning from here 

[Mapantz]

Futile looking at precip models  now, to be honest. Warning zones are in place from many sources and these cover a broad area because of unknown extent. Singularity made a good post about precip charts being smoothed out etc. There's a very high chance that it won't pan out like what any of the precip models show, due to warm layers possibly stopping rainfall from reaching the surface. Satellite imagery, the radar and good ol' fashioned observations from me, particularly being down here.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Mapantz

[R Alto]

Right, suitibaly enthusued about this one, if just for some cloud skapes, so will head to the Creech viewpoint, maybe kimmerage Bay in the Purbecks for this one. If any of you are in the area feel free to make yourself known, I'll be in and around a tatty old silver/grey clio!

[northwestsnow]

Well lets hope this thread is very busy over the coming days !!

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Futile looking at precip models  now, to be honest. Warning zones are in place from many sources and these cover a broad area because of unknown extent. Singularity made a good post about precip charts being smoothed out etc. There's a very high chance that it won't pan out like what any of the precip models show, due to warm layers possibly stopping rainfall from reaching the surface. Satellite imagery, the radar and good ol' fashioned observations from me, particularly being down here.

Yep! Sunbathing on the beach currently, Bournemouth at its best, tis a waiting game now and probably won’t look at model data in any great depth now. Having dinner at Hot Rocks with a friend by the pier so well placed for later. Just need to resist the beer urge and keep an eye on radar from about 5/6pm onwards and hope things start popping about 20miles SSE of Portland! 

[tomp456]

Just because you are not in the zones doesn't mean you won't get a storm/get a nice lightning show. 

Almost anywhere is primed for some action! 

[DanDorsetUK]

16 minutes ago, R Alto said:

Right, suitibaly enthusued about this one, if just for some cloud skapes, so will head to the Creech viewpoint, maybe kimmerage Bay in the Purbecks for this one. If any of you are in the area feel free to make yourself known, I'll be in and around a tatty old silver/grey clio!

I'll be right by kimmerage bay too up at the top car park by wolbarrow bay. Perfect spot to watch! Watch the big flag pole though! 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Rapodo