Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[elfinpunk]

Just noticed I am rather in the middle of the zone and the rainfall map from the MetOffice (which i know isn't exactly accurate) shows a big splodge of white 32mm/ph over here at 7pm... I am suddenly a little nervous and glad I live on the first floor.

[Lynxus]

41 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Estofex has a level 2 for the south coast. 

Now I am interested.

Estofex are my Go to for warnings and are typically pretty damn spot.

 

Now its got interesting!

[weirpig]

Aperge  has a large area of the country under potential storm risk  heavy rain confined more towards the west  dividing line  south Wales  through parts of west Midlands  up towards the spine of the country  

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m excited because the rain is hopefully gonna be subdued by the warm layer. Could be some perfect picturesque skies for photography

[DanDorsetUK]

This is looking very good for large swathes of the country. I'm inside level 2 in Bournemouth Dorset and a repeat of 2015 would be very nice please! 

[ancientsolar]

If the Bay of biscay keeps moving at the rate it is.. it'll be hitting the South Coast in 10hours 

[Robert Lewis]

Seems unusual in the UK to have a Thunderstorm and then the next day be just as hot as the day before let alone how hot Thursday is predicted to be. Hoping for some good Thunderstorms to break up the humidity at least.

[Summerstorm]

Here is the Hirlam 18z run's take 

Followed by the Arpege 

The Arome is yet to come out yet. 

[Superstormuk]

I'm surprised the met office still haven't released any weather warnings, they're normally trigger happy. I mean T-Storms in the SW are a pretty much a given, it's now just a matter of the actual positioning of these storms. 

I reckon convection is going to be crazy as these storms track NE. We could see some nasty weather. 

What's the chance of these storms shifting slightly further East? I would love to some activity closer to me. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Superstormuk

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Here is the Hirlam 18z run's take 

Followed by the Arpege 

The Arome is yet to come out yet. 

Hmm seems to be moving further and further west

[Robert Lewis]

2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Here is the Hirlam 18z run's take 

Followed by the Arpege 

The Arome is yet to come out yet. 

Annoyingly seems to avoid Berkshire completely. I don't think we have had any Thunder this year at all from memory. I wouldn't mind something this week. Would be happy to see another July 3rd 2015. Gosh what a night that was in Bournemouth.

[ChezWeather]

12z AROME 

 

 

[Summerstorm]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmm seems to be moving further and further west

Still think you've got a chance especially later in the night as some storms form further east. Plus these are only snapshots really but the bulk of precipitation is further West. As shown on the Arome charts above there are plenty of showers around and there is a chance that you might catch the eastern half of a system. @Robert Lewis Maybe you'll get lucky i don't remember much of that day as i think it mostly avoided this area.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Summerstorm

[Mapantz]

There's thick fog here at the moment. There's an old saying around these parts.. Fog on a July night, tomorrow there's thunderstorms.

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Here is the Hirlam 18z run's take 

Followed by the Arpege 

The Arome is yet to come out yet. 

Hirlam following the classic Welsh Marches route

[Robert Lewis]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

There's thick fog here at the moment. There's an old saying around these parts.. Fog on a July night, tomorrow there's thunderstorms.

That's something i miss about that area, the random mist and fog you might get, used to leave work in clarity, drive through thick mist and fog on occasion and be all clear by the time i returned home, was pretty cool.

[Summerstorm]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Hirlam following the classic Welsh Marches route

fingers crossed mate  

[TJS1998Tom]

Could this be storms for the West during the weekend or just rain if it comes off? would be perfect timing for me going on holiday if so lol

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

12z AROME 

 

 

I like the look of that,it gives me time to get in at 10 0'clock to set things up

camera is fully charged and settings sorted to man focus,ISO set to between 100-200,tripod ready,beer and snacks and a perfect platform in my back garden facing south with great views

good luck everyone.

[Superstormuk]

Looks like I'm taking a little road trip tomorrow night. Any predictions on what areas will see the most severe weather? 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Superstormuk

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

12z AROME 

 

 

That looks amazing- oooooo some of that in my area .

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Superstormuk said:

Looks like I'm taking a little road trip tomorrow night. Any predictions on what area will see the most severe weather? 

Best to look at the radar tomorrow buddy,storms are the most unpredictable to forecast but the general warning envelopes are a general guide as to where they might be,i think you might be too far east but the warning envelopes can be wrong too

now-casting and radar watching is the best source. 

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That looks amazing- oooooo some of that in my area .

I hope you haven't triggered the auto  storm shield with that off the cuff remark

[Schnee]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

We had hail the size of 2p coins that day, the roofs of a local Sainsbury’s and Boots caved in. 

I was at a convention in Birmingham at that time but apparently the storm caused a 2ish hour power cut in Crossgates.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Stelmer

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

I was at a convention in Birmingham at that time but apparently the storm caused a 2ish hour power cut in Crossgates.

Yeah I was living in nearby Whitkirk. I think I remember reading about that on Facebook.