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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards


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29 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I used to film thunderstorms but I got fed up of lightning striking in every direction but the direction I was pointing my camera, so now I just watch and enjoy!

Same.......watch it and take it in! You never know when the next one will come along....

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

I am loving this!

Seems quite a long time since the UK and Ireland had such a widespread risk all at the same time?

 
Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Wow. I’ve never been under a SVR zone from Convective Weather... This is a first...

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Wow okay I wasn't expecting such an upgrade from Convective Weather! I'm in the Moderate and on the outskirts of the severe. If this pays off direct hit or not this should hopefully be a sign for good elevated displays

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

That's moved me from the edge of the green area on there to being inside the SVR area and not far off the yellow area. Wasn't expecting that much of a change on their forecast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Just now, matt111 said:

That's moved me from the edge of the green area on there to being inside the SVR area and not far off the yellow area. Wasn't expecting that much of a change on their forecast. 

My areas also just about in the moderate and near the severe, was expecting to be in the green at the very most. 

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

the plume is underway.. lightning strikes in bay of biscay

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

So I'm located well in the moderate and severe range. Be interesting to see how this will pan out... Could this be more widespread than we were expecting it to be? 

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Hopefully the storms and cloud stay away from the east - Thursday is looking a bit shaky. Some of us want the record breaking temps to come to fruition. 

Edited by Stabilo19
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
23 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this!

Seems quite a long time since the UK and Ireland had such a widespread risk all at the same time?

 

Slap bang in the middle of the severe risk area......that'll do nicely....Carlsberg don't storm risk maps, but if they did.........

edit....and in the Estofex level 2 zone

Edited by A.J
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

To be honest from what I can see from the latest Icon,Arpege,Arome and Hirlam runs I think that moderate should be extended further west into parts of Wales and the North West although maybe I'm wrong and spouting rubbish but the latest Higher Res run i can find the Icon 18z keeps it further west.

iconeu_uk1-1-30-0.thumb.png.d901055004096d7bd0030d04b9fd01a1.png

 

Although the ECM has a much wider spread event so maybe that's why they are putting out moderates out further east. 

 

 

 

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

MO have nothing warning wise for Tuesday yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
27 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Wow. I’ve never been under a SVR zone from Convective Weather... This is a first...

Same!

i thought we were too Far East for anything!

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

They should have warnings out for storms and heat!

Maybe they aren't confident enough to pin an area down yet but getting warnings out early is important.

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

For me there are two distinct area of storms which could grow into an MCS system and I've highlighted them in green. The first one moves into SW England during the early evening and gradually works its way north-eastwards (broadly the MDT zone convective weather have) becoming increasingly elevated as it moves NE, could be some spectacular lightning south of about the centre of this area, lightning perhaps less frequent in the northern half. 

The second area of interest is N Wales and NW England as a second batch of potentially severe storms develops later on in the night, 11pm onwards which could again upscale into an MCS system bringing frequent lightning etc.

Areas outside of these of the above mentioned zones (anywhere in brown) are also at a good risk of seeing torrential rain, thunderstorms possibly locally severe especially across the SW but perhaps not in the highest risk zone of severe thunderstorms at this stage.

Usual caveats apply etc.. 

Screenshot 2019-07-22 at 22.46.50.png

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Maybe they aren't confident enough to pin an area down yet but getting warnings out early is important.

Given the extremity of the potential situation, i'd give a blanket warning for both to be cautious and frequently keep up to date with developments.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Given the extremity of the potential situation, i'd give a blanket warning for both to be cautious and frequently keep up to date with developments.

Oh yeah i agree for sure they ramped the possibility up in their video forecasts and social media but that's not enough and people could be at risk. Also @Met4Cast I'd say that forecast is a solid shout with some scattered showers elsewhere as you mention. Certainly ties in with what i've seen from the Met Office although maybe we'll be able to resolve it in more detail tomorrow. It may also become a nowcast situation as either of the systems could correct further east or west.

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
21 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

MO have nothing warning wise for Tuesday yet.

No doubt they'll be introducing warnings tomorrow morning particularity for the West then perhaps last minute ones elsewhere if needed

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

I rang up Estofex to ask them if they could move the severe zone further east to accommodate Reigate, They didn't answer the 'phone.

Hope those in the zone have a good session! Keep us all posted please.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
3 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I rang up Estofex to ask them if they could move the severe zone further east to accommodate Reigate, They didn't answer the 'phone.

Hope those in the zone have a good session! Keep us all posted please.

Thursday night is looking just as good if not better in my opinion for the SE!

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