Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Marcus_surfer]

So south wales looking like a good position right now? Will probably push north 

[Azazel]

You know what, even if I don't see anything, I've got the day off Wednesday so don't have to be home early - I've got camping chairs in the boot, camera and tripod, shutter cable etc. I'm just gonna find a field and have a relaxing evening with a newspaper.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

You know what, even if I don't see anything, I've got the day off Wednesday so don't have to be home early - I've got camping chairs in the boot, camera and tripod, shutter cable etc. I'm just gonna find a field and have a relaxing evening with a newspaper.

The perfect chase

I remember the 2014 storms that summer. Leisurely drive down into Hants after work, dinner in a pub then a couple of hours up on Buster Hill reading posts, texting and nowcasting on the radar - a beautiful warm evening without a cloud in the sky, storms rocked up just after dusk in the channel and went on until about 3am...

Something like that tomorrow would just be amazing

 

[ancientsolar]

I don't know what the risks are for the SE valleys, but i'm thinking I should buy a nice webcam and livestream tomorrow night on Youtube... would anyone be interested to watch that if I can pull it off ?

[Carl46Wrexham]

2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

I don't know what the risks are for the SE valleys, but i'm thinking I should buy a nice webcam and livestream tomorrow night on Youtube... would anyone be interested to watch that if I can pull it off ?

Count me in...I’ll definately be looking out for good webcam coverage of this event......

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ventusky seems to think the storms will power across Scotland into the sea  

Their CAPE charts don’t look great - but that’s SB I think so it’s kind of irrelevant

Edited July 22, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Carl46Wrexham]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ventusky seems to think the storms will power across Scotland into the sea  

Their CAPE charts don’t look great - but that’s SB I think so it’s kind of irrelevant

Showing CAPE of around 1500j/kg with lifted index of -6. Should go off a treat..

[Supacell]

18 minutes ago, Azazel said:

You know what, even if I don't see anything, I've got the day off Wednesday so don't have to be home early - I've got camping chairs in the boot, camera and tripod, shutter cable etc. I'm just gonna find a field and have a relaxing evening with a newspaper.

My advice, depending on how far you can travel, is wait for the event to come into the 24 hour timeframe and then check out the hi res models. I find Euro4 to handle convective events very well.

[ancientsolar]

I am very cautious to trust any charts with thunderstorm timings, espicially when low pressure it on our doorstep hitting the high pressure..surely that is a squeeze of potential ?

[Azazel]

HIRLAM showing the bulk of activity pretty far west over cornwall up into southern wales. Does show an arm of precipitation reaching into central southern counties though. Same with Arpege.

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Azazel said:

HIRLAM showing the bulk of activity pretty far west over cornwall up into southern wales. Does show an arm of precipitation reaching into central southern counties though. Same with Arpege.

 

 

Generally with a mass of thunderstorms/MCS the eastern edge has the most frequent lightning/highest rainfall rates. Potentially could be what the Hirlam & Arpege are showing.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Maybe Taunton will be the sweet spot?

[Mapantz]

I still think Wales in to Northwest England and Scotland look to do best. The South looks to be the harvester and then the good stuff occurs as it moves North.

[Azazel]

GOOFUS has a large area impacting the SW all the way across the South coast - this sort of then splits in half, one half travelling up through Wales etc and the other half more north easterly towards East Anglia/Lincolnshire etc. Hoping that's the one!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Azazel said:

GOOFUS has a large area impacting the SW all the way across the South coast - this sort of then splits in half, one half travelling up through Wales etc and the other half more north easterly towards East Anglia/Lincolnshire etc. Hoping that's the one!

Lincs maybe, but EA is a bit of a stretch I reckon.

if it’s showing a split perhaps this is a splitting cell?

Are models even capable of predicting detailed cell activity like that?

[Mapantz]

Why concentrate on low resolution models when we're in the time frame of all high resolution models?

[Karl83]

Think I'm just going to sit tight in Bristol and see how the night pans out. Will definitely chase if required.

[Azazel]

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Why concentrate on low resolution models when we're in the time frame of all high resolution models?

Because everything is too far West and i'm clutching at straws.

[Ben Sainsbury]

11 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Think I'm just going to sit tight in Bristol and see how the night pans out. Will definitely chase if required.

My exact thinking! Probably will make a trip up Dundry or towards the Bristol Channel if further west.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[Karl83]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

My exact thinking! Probably will make a trip up Dundry or towards the Bristol Channel if further west.

Yes Ben I was thinking of the Bristol Channel too. Maybe Pilning? 

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

My Missus will be wondering what the hell I’m playing at, spending the first night of my hol in Crete looking at webcams of the action taking place in the UK. Sod’s law eh? Last major night thunderstorm event I saw was in July 2001, now that we could be looking at another one, and yours truly is thousands of miles away. Hope you guys have a good one.

OMG 3rd July 2001. What an amazing night that was. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, Karl83 said:

Yes Ben I was thinking of the Bristol Channel too. Maybe Pilning? 

Depends, may head down to Brean/Burnham-on-sea if storms look quite potent initially. If they develop as they move northwards then Pilning will be a good shout.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Certainly hoping there is a 50 mile shunt east on the 12z runs. Most of the good stuff is now shown to head up through wales then into Lancashire and Cumbria on a fair few of the models.

I need this to come off for my sanity 

[Guest]

I think parts of Dorset will get a good show tomorrow evening, eastern edge is always best as usually tapping into the best environment, also prefer storms going up early evening watching them form and they usually have the best lightning rates just after firing.

[TJS1998Tom]

Anyone got thoughts on lincoln for storms tomorrow night?