Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Zak M]

Here’s one of the positive strikes from that storm.

 

[chapmanslade]

6 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

That's what i'm hoping as Ronaldsway has a CATI ILS system so it's navigable to land with a minimum ceiling and winds, normally it's the sea-fog which is the cause for diversion or cancellations and the forecast has the worst of the *possible* storms way north by mid-morning.

The Cat1 refers to visibility not winds, but yes sea fog would make it impossible. In fact sea fog would make it impossible for all but Cat3 and none of the planes into Ronaldsway have that I suspect, even if the airport did. Cloud bases should be high anyway - certainly above 200ft - so I don't imagine visibility will be a problem.

[Another Kent clipper]

I know there's a lot of excitement for Tuesday but any thoughts on Thursday?  I don't think I can justify driving west of say Reading after finishing work if it's likely to happen again closer to home

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Trying get weds off. Gonna get all my gear ready tomo and have a dry run - take a photo of a tree or something.

Wooooo!

[Harry]

App saying 36C for here on Thursday now...rain symbol and a positively cool 25C for Friday...stormies in the offing later in the week???

[Another Kent clipper]

50 minutes ago, Harry said:

App saying 36C for here on Thursday now...rain symbol and a positively cool 25C for Friday...stormies in the offing later in the week???

Maybe good things will come to those who wait.

I must add though, I'm starting to have a good feeling about Tuesday regardless.  Anyone remember September 13th 2016?  It was the best storm I've ever seen and Tuesday's convective weather forecast reminds me of that Tuesday's convective weather forecast....

Edited July 21, 2019 by Another Kent clipper

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Maybe good things will come to those who wait.

I must add though, I'm starting to have a good feeling about Tuesday regardless.  Anyone September 13th 2016?  It was the best storm I've ever seen and Tuesday's convective weather forecast reminds me of that Tuesday's convective weather forecast....

I bet the place I'm going to the Lake District next week will end up getting a good storm and I'm gonna wish the storms were pushed back one week later lol, not too sure about our area unless we get anything elevated or if there's a sudden change on the day of radar watching which has happened

[Lu.]

40 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Trying get weds off. Gonna get all my gear ready tomo and have a dry run - take a photo of a tree or something.

Wooooo!

You heading west?

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Lu. said:

You heading west?

 

That’s the plan, haven’t told my dad yet cos I don’t know if ther will be time to sleep

[Mapantz]

I remember the 13th September 2016 very well:

Strangely, the 16th September was a better storm for me:

I'm yet to beat my rainfall record for that night.

[Lu.]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That’s the plan, haven’t told my dad yet cos I don’t know if ther will be time to sleep

As I’m off work id travel. I’ll keep my eyes on here but if there’s a significant chance that way will get hit - notify me please

I don’t want to miss this one!  

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I remember the 13th September 2016 very well:

Strangely, the 16th September was a better storm for me:

I'm yet to beat my rainfall record for that night.

Yes I remember that day well too - the afternoon was hot but it cooled down significantly in the evening as that storm approached. I was convinced it would die before reaching here but I was pleasantly surprised. Constant lightning was the main feature.

Edited July 21, 2019 by cheese

[Lu.]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I remember the 13th September 2016 very well:

Strangely, the 16th September was a better storm for me:

I'm yet to beat my rainfall record for that night.

I’m sure this is the storm I decided to stay in Portsmouth for... I had the chance to go to Bournemouth to my then partners but thought Pompey would get hit. 

I remember seeing the lightning from my room (I lived in a high rise then) and the strikes where so powerful, so many CG - was amazing 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, Lu. said:

As I’m off work id travel. I’ll keep my eyes on here but if there’s a significant chance that way will get hit - notify me please

I don’t want to miss this one!  

I think it’s odds on 80% that there’ll be good storms to the west. Maybe 30% it will be any further east than, say, Basingstoke

[tomp456]

Will the lightning be visible out to sea from Worthing or Littlehampton?

 

will defo head to the beach if yes 

[Chris.R]

 I actually feel I’m in a good place for Tuesday night. Feel like this is the most promising event for a few years here. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Would like to see a slight eastward correction on the 0z suites. It seems to have been pushed W slightly on the 18z runs which means the bulk of the feature runs up through Wales and into the Irish Sea before affecting SW Scotland. The Arpege even has N Ireland joining in!

This is the best chance at a decent light show here in years...please do not go the way of the pear AGAIN!

Edited July 21, 2019 by CreweCold

[Ben Sainsbury]

Certainly feels a while since we've had any imported thunderstorms here in Bristol. Hopefully we can be the breeding ground for a huge MCS to track across all the areas further North! 

[Zak M]

That storm I had today lasted for almost 4 hours.

I thought the storm was over, but then it started unleashing strikes from the anvil of the storm. I’ve never seen so much frequent CGs in my entire lifetime.

Check this strike out.

 

This is my last post for today. Night all.

Edited July 21, 2019 by zmstorm

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, tomp456 said:

Will the lightning be visible out to sea from Worthing or Littlehampton?

 

will defo head to the beach if yes 

Apart from the most very atmospheric of flashes... no

[offerman]

Hello Fello Storm Entbusiasts, 

i just wondered if you would know roughly if any and where storms are most likely during this week? 

 

I live in Northeast Somerset right on Som/Wilts border in Frome and I have no idea if there are any storms likely this week during the heatwave and on which day/night. 

 

Would any any of you have a rough guide please .

i caught some amazing lightning shots here last year in April. Was a strange month with very heavy snow at the start then heat and electrical storms at the end more Akin to Canadian weather . 

Many Thanks . 

[Weather-history]

FAX charts for Wednesday 0z and 12z

Edited July 22, 2019 by Weather-history

[Cheshire Freeze]

The UKMO has precipitation breaking out widely across England and Wales on Tuesday night.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Hello Fello Storm Entbusiasts, 

i just wondered if you would know roughly if any and where storms are most likely during this week? 

 

I live in Northeast Somerset right on Som/Wilts border in Frome and I have no idea if there are any storms likely this week during the heatwave and on which day/night. 

 

Would any any of you have a rough guide please .

i caught some amazing lightning shots here last year in April. Was a strange month with very heavy snow at the start then heat and electrical storms at the end more Akin to Canadian weather . 

Many Thanks . 

Hello there. 

Its pretty hard to pin down where exactly the storms will occur at this range still. 

I would say as things stand, there’s a decent chance of elevated storms firing up on Tuesday night, as a slight upper trough heads north, providing lifting mechanism and probably breaking the cap. Southwestern areas up through the West Midlands into the NW would have the best shot with this forecasted round, but other areas could still see some storms, potentially dry storms further East, as that’s where the hotter and drier air will be. 

After that, Wednesday and Thursday could well see some storms brew both day and night, and potential for surface based storms in the daytime in the East. 

Thats what I’m thinking currently, but hi resolution models should be watched closely from now on in, as marginal changes could make huge differences. 

Nick F I should imagine will issue warnings and storm forecasts tomorrow at some point. Estofex and convective weather will no doubt be on it too. Keep an eye on them. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[offerman]

15 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hello there. 

Its pretty hard to pin down where exactly the storms will occur at this range still. 

I would say as things stand, there’s a decent chance of elevated storms firing up on Tuesday night, as a slight upper trough heads north, providing lifting mechanism and probably breaking the cap. Southwestern areas up through the West Midlands into the NW would have the best shot with this forecasted round, but other areas could still see some storms, potentially dry storms further East, as that’s where the hotter and drier air will be. 

After that, Wednesday and Thursday could well see some storms brew both day and night, and potential for surface based storms in the daytime in the East. 

Thats what I’m thinking currently, but hi resolution models should be watched closely from now on in, as marginal changes could make huge differences. 

Nick F I should imagine will issue warnings and storm forecasts tomorrow at some point. Estofex and convective weather will no doubt be on it too. Keep an eye on them. 

Good morning EES

Really appreciate you're reply and many thanks for taking the time and effort for me.

 

It looks like many could see storms and I hope we all do.  

 

Thanks again , my eyes are fixed for Tuesday Wednesday here . I might even drive a little too to find them .