Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Even if the core of the system doesn't pass overhead, I think it'll be one of those times where lightning can be seen 30 to perhaps 50 miles away. 

Impossible to get that kind of visibility here, being only 10m above sea level. The only possible place is direct from the South where 20 miles is a push. Or, get on top of the Purbeck hills. However, I like to be at home during a storm, just like I do when it snows.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Impossible to get that kind of visibility here, being only 10m above sea level. The only possible place is direct from the South where 20 miles is a push. Or, get on top of the Purbeck hills. However, I like to be at home during a storm, just like I do when it snows.

Ahhhh ok. Keep us posted on the UKV mate

[Sparkiee storm]

42 minutes ago, Dami said:

Dying of the heat and getting no storms is standard Beddy fare. I shall be therefore dancing in the garden under the sprinkler bashing the lid of a bin very loudly with a stick. 

You need a Party strobe light too, for the flashes of lighting 

[Lu.]

Some interesting reading from the charts you have all shown.

Week off work now so can travel

lets hope something dose actually kick off!

[Sparkiee storm]

44 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I don't want to count any chickens this far in advance because the form for storms here is patchy at best. However, as things stand this looks to be more of a classic 90s destabilisation event, whereby the core of the plume destabilises on its western edge. The SE looks to be within the core of the plume at that point which ultimately means that the SE area remains dry at that point. 

Destabilisation looks to occur from SW England, running up through the Marches/west Midlands, NW England and then Scotland. However, there will likely be some fluctuations to this as we get closer to Tues night- hence I'm counting no chickens!

I agree with this, by looking at the models, its reminding me of a classic 90s plume event too. 

[ChezWeather]

Plenty of great South facing view points around here, some where you can see near enough 40 miles on a clear day, work or no work if there is lightning around on Tuesday night I will be seeing it!

 

 

[Azazel]

Tempted to take Wednesday off but I don’t knowwwwwwww

[Tim Bland]

Big shift East on ECM 

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Big shift East on ECM 

Now that's more like it 

[Mapantz]

Latest 15Z UKV:

   

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

The eastward shiftward beginwards!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Latest 15Z UKV:

 

Looking at that, it looks like anywhere across England and Wales could see a light show on Tuesday night.

I've looked at the ECM for the period and the location looks fairly similar to other guidance. Storms make landfall around Devon/Dorset and develop more widely across Wales, the Midlands and into N England as they move N.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The eastward shiftward beginwards!

If anything, the UKV has shifted slightly back West since the last run.

To me, I can see this being a good one for places like North Wales, North West England and in to Scotland.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM take on things...

[Weather-history]

Some interesting cloud formations in the sky.

[shaky]

25 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If anything, the UKV has shifted slightly back West since the last run.

To me, I can see this being a good one for places like North Wales, North West England and in to Scotland.

Was gona say i dont think there is any eaastward shift if anything it stayed the same or gone westwards!!the batch of showers was always forecast by the gfs across eastern england overnight!!you had one batch moving through western england northwards and another developing across the east moving north again!

[Weather-history]

ECM 12z suggesting some poky storms Tuesday evening 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019072112/england/significant-weather/20190724-0200z.html

[Zak M]

I just had the thunderstorm of my life here.

Incredible close lightning strikes, at least 5 of them were positively charged, and around 3 of them were within 2 miles.

I’m speechless.

[viking_smb]

nothing on blitzortung

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

nothing on blitzortung

He's in Florida!

[viking_smb]

ah sorry

[Zak M]

[carl1980]

33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Some interesting cloud formations in the sky.

Noticed that before the rain started

[Azazel]

Sod it i’m gonna see how many days holiday I have left and if I have enough, book Wednesday off so I can be out and about Tuesday evening.

if nothing materialises here I blame you lot.