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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
25 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - living in the West of Scotland I have never known so many thunderstorm risks/warnings for this area. (It has been almost on a weekly basis since mid June)

87EE2C09-D69D-4F26-B642-CD0FF5229FC9.thumb.png.a9e1cc96b53f6c81a6c136bb9f614112.png

Risk of overnight thunderstorms - which is always the best kind! We shall see.

But how many of these actually happen?

 

Welcome to our world - warnings almost every couple of days (usually low risk) and probably only once every 10 times do they actually materialise

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Raindrops Aficionado

Raindrops

Posted
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, NLC
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
Posted
3 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

I'm a Londoner. I just set up time lapse but hoping the rain will pass soon because I want the more interesting weather to happen later.

Been overcast here all morning (Dublin), I do see breaks in the cloud heading my way. Honestly I'm no expert but I can't see much action happening on your side of the world until tomorrow.

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Thunder and Lightning Aficionado

Thunder and Lightning

Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
Posted

I know. Is Pouring right now but doubt action until late tonight/tomorrow. Satellite showing cloud breaks across Ireland and Wales so they probably have the best chance of seeing anything.

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Popular Post
Posted

Good morning everyone. 

Despite what any computer model may tell you, the image below is in fact the most accurate forecast for any thunderstorms in the next week and beyond. 

You're welcome. 

 

storms.jpg.08e91d1ac21b7aa71938c066fdfec286.jpg.bb7201208ebee0c26acd69281c9e55f9.thumb.jpg.7653b7a2c15d78ee2ba551bd48eba199.jpg

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Mitch the motorbike storm Community Regular

Mitch the motorbike storm

Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Here's a UKV snapshot of rain totals up until 6am tomorrow:

55745230_viewimage(1).thumb.png.a0485f3249c1cb586383731c3163a681.png

mapantz my question is, do you think this is worth staying up for tonight down in the southeast? or is it just going to be heavy rain showers with infrequent lightning?

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

mapantz my question is, do you think this is worth staying up for tonight down in the southeast? or is it just going to be heavy rain showers with infrequent lightning?

I can't really comment on regards to staying up. It's certainly not a classic by any means. I would plump for mainly rain with some embedded convection. Kent shows some very slight interest during the early hours, though.

PWAT cross section showing high levels on the charts, so I would've thought that torrential rain would be more of a hazard.

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Mitch the motorbike storm Community Regular

Mitch the motorbike storm

Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I can't really comment on regards to staying up. It's certainly not a classic by any means. I would plump for mainly rain with some embedded convection. Kent shows some very slight interest during the early hours, though.

PWAT cross section showing high levels on the charts, so I would've thought that torrential rain would be more of a hazard.

Okay ill word it a bit more logical, Do you think the storm will have frequent lightning or no? Just i dont want to do what happened last time where i stayed up all night and fell asleep at 7am as soon as the storm arrived...

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Raindrops Aficionado

Raindrops

Posted
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, NLC
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
Posted
19 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Good morning everyone. 

Despite what any computer model may tell you, the image below is in fact the most accurate forecast for any thunderstorms in the next week and beyond. 

You're welcome. 

 

storms.jpg.08e91d1ac21b7aa71938c066fdfec286.jpg.bb7201208ebee0c26acd69281c9e55f9.thumb.jpg.7653b7a2c15d78ee2ba551bd48eba199.jpg

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Morning everyone. :oldsmile:
I know that this chart is for next Thursday, and that the GFS has a 'minor' tendency to overcook the Cape and Li figures but... :shok:
Its probably gonna down grade or be a Cap event knowing our luck, but we can always hope. :oldrolleyes:
Still with next weeks weather, there is currently a small chance... :friends:

Screenshot (3).png

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning everyone. :oldsmile:
I know that this chart is for next Thursday, and that the GFS has a 'minor' tendency to overcook the Cape and Li figures but... :shok:
Its probably gonna down grade or be a Cap event knowing our luck, but we can always hope. :oldrolleyes:
Still with next weeks weather, there is currently a small chance... :friends:

Screenshot (3).png

Plus it shows that it will be mostly dry over England with most of any organized shower activity over northern Ireland and Scotland.

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

NOT the first time for us up here we've seen charts like that this summer (and yes they were downgraded) but none the less some very serious nice eye candy to look at

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted
23 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning everyone. :oldsmile:
I know that this chart is for next Thursday, and that the GFS has a 'minor' tendency to overcook the Cape and Li figures but... :shok:
Its probably gonna down grade or be a Cap event knowing our luck, but we can always hope. :oldrolleyes:
Still with next weeks weather, there is currently a small chance... :friends:

Screenshot (3).png

It will turn into a Kent Clipper 

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
25 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning everyone. :oldsmile:
I know that this chart is for next Thursday, and that the GFS has a 'minor' tendency to overcook the Cape and Li figures but... :shok:
Its probably gonna down grade or be a Cap event knowing our luck, but we can always hope. :oldrolleyes:
Still with next weeks weather, there is currently a small chance... :friends:

Screenshot (3).png

I’d want a cap if this comes off - perfect loaded gun to store and build all that energy and release it at just the right moment...  

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

But how many of these actually happen?

 

Welcome to our world - warnings almost every couple of days (usually low risk) and probably only once every 10 times do they actually materialise

Currently 18c and blue sky here so hopefully that helps with the action later - if there is any! 

Spot on mate - that’s why I said risk/warnings.

I have had two notable long lasting thunderstorms. (CG Lightning, lots of thunder, small hail and torrential rain - pics below)

4BA4E655-7407-4B37-AFBA-9496F88A4246.thumb.jpeg.d0cbe07a6afef3db27dce567a954fa6e.jpegD5C93B33-98B8-4DA1-A527-1EAE2E7BBF41.thumb.jpeg.d7f14c99111ccee059ac46746ef0769b.jpeg

Apart from that numerous thundery downpours - more action that normal for the period up to mid July but risk/warnings wise it has been constant. (Quite a few thunderstorms have missed me just to my North and South so could have been a much better season so far)

If only we all lived in France, Italy, Croatia, Germany and so on.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Currently 18c and blue sky here so hopefully that helps with the action later - if there is any! 

Spot on mate - that’s why I said risk/warnings.

I have had two notable long lasting thunderstorms. (CG Lightning, lots of thunder, small hail and torrential rain - pics below)

4BA4E655-7407-4B37-AFBA-9496F88A4246.thumb.jpeg.d0cbe07a6afef3db27dce567a954fa6e.jpegD5C93B33-98B8-4DA1-A527-1EAE2E7BBF41.thumb.jpeg.d7f14c99111ccee059ac46746ef0769b.jpeg

Apart from that numerous thundery downpours - more action that normal for the period up to mid July but risk/warnings wise it has been constant. (Quite a few thunderstorms have missed me just to my North and South so could have been a much better season so far)

If only we all lived in France, Italy, Croatia, Germany and so on.

Your view is outstanding!

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

 Currently getting some intermittent good insolation. Temperature rising quickly. Feels promising. 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Sun is out strong now; coming up on 19°C. 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

A cell developing and heading my way I think now. 

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted (edited)

Thunder and Lightning in Bristol

Almost 'flash bang'. Maybe a few seconds between them.

Edited by Karl83
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Yea an unexpected clap of thunder and brief torrential downpour a few miles North of Bristol 

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