Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

[Summer Sun]

Quite early to issue warnings no doubt this'll change before Thursday 

[TJS1998Tom]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Quite early to issue warnings no doubt this'll change before Thursday 

My bets it'll extend further south as models also show parts of lincolnshire with good cape and heavy precip for that day 

[Smokeysmoggy]

Looks to be an interesting day, I'll be keeping a close eye on this one and see if it comes to anything. 

Last time we were under warning it was Scotland that got hammered and it skirted round us but we will see. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Quite early to issue warnings no doubt this'll change before Thursday 

I’ve read that these are unlikely to be organised storms. Seems a bit odd to release a severe weather warning - especially this early.

[TJS1998Tom]

hmmm yes please   (For Wednesday)

[NUT]

Looking forward to potentally thursday now. We got thunder last saturday but not much and very little rain. Thursday could be our main event this summer

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 09 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 10 Jul 2019

ISSUED 19:46 UTC Mon 08 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging will reside over the British Isles on Tuesday - however, renewed pulses of warm advection will occur as deep moisture is advected from the subtropics. Extensive cloud and frontal rain will tend to slide east and southeast across northern Britain through this forecast period, traversing the northern flank of the upper ridge. Embedded pockets of elevated convection are possible, particularly over the Atlantic to the west of Scotland. Saturated profiles, weak instability and only subtle forcing suggests lightning is rather unlikely, but isolated strikes cannot be ruled out.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-09

[Mullet69]

I'm sat on a rooftop terrace in Madrid watching lightning in 3 different directions, yet lightningmaps shows it sporadic at best. Same as being at home in York watching the same yet detectors seem to miss a lot of it.

Tonight ive watched 2 distinct cells, one from the south one from the north, join up and produce nothing for so long and now theres so much lightning yet minimal thunder.

[Chris.R]

 Wednesday night now showing modest CAPE here for me in Holyhead. 

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for thunderstorms issued for tomorrow

12:00 Tomorrow 21:00 Tomorrow

Heavy, and possibly thundery, showers may cause some travel disruption and flooding in places during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

What to expect

• Some flooding of a few homes and businesses likely, leading to some damage to buildings or structures
• Probably some damage to a few buildings and structures from lightning strikes
• There is a good chance driving conditions will be affected by spray, standing water and, leading to longer journey times by car and bus
• Delays to train services are possible
• Some short term loss of power and other services is likely

Heavy showers, some of them perhaps thundery, are likely to develop during Wednesday afternoon across parts of Scotland. Whilst many areas will miss the heaviest showers, where they do develop, slow-moving and heavy downpours are possible. There is potential for 15-25 mm of rain in an hour and 30-40 mm in 2-3 hours. Showers will then fade away during the evening.

Central, Tayside & Fife

• Angus
• Dundee
• Fife
• Perth and Kinross

Grampian

• Aberdeen
• Aberdeenshire
• Moray

Highlands & Eilean Siar

• Highland

SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

• East Lothian
• Scottish Borders

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-07-10&id=710b6be9-abee-406d-ac4b-598f8f54bd87&details

[Summer Sun]

Updated thunderstorm warning on Thursday has removed Northern Ireland and added parts of Lincolnshire

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-07-11&id=d448c056-2293-4ab6-9d40-8a7c8c5ce4ef&details

[howham]

Yep, Wednesday and Thursday warnings here now.  Probably nothing too severe in terms of lightning.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Marginal CAPE so I still don’t understand why a significant warning over lightning. Rain could be heavy though

[Mapantz]

 

Certainly scattered on the UKV model.

[IanR]

Im moving to Edinburgh   seems to be the new most thunder prone city in the UK 

[Norrance]

Possible thunderstorms in East Central Scotland again for pm tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. Have we suddenly become the UK hotspot having had a few already this Summer?

Edited July 9, 2019 by Norrance

[Nath]

Enjoy Norrance, just give us some of your snow come winter in return... deal?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Finally, there looks to be what could be a decent day across the board, but for the starved eastern areas this summer too, at long last. A small shot into tomorrow, and then the main possible event on Thursday! 

Not expecting anything near what the likes of Italy and Croatia have been experiencing these past few days though! If anyone’s visited the European storm thread. They’ve had 3 days of nothing but epic acrobatic lightning displays! 

[Allseasons-Si]

17 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Finally, there looks to be what could be a decent day across the board, but for the starved eastern areas this summer too, at long last. A small shot into tomorrow, and then the main possible event on Thursday! 

Not expecting anything near what the likes of Italy and Croatia have been experiencing these past few days though! If anyone’s visited the European storm thread. They’ve had 3 days of nothing but epic acrobatic lightning displays! 

Yes it has been monumental over there and i have just posted in there that the N Adriatic sea is waking up

as for here,i am on afters this week so i hope that thu's night might light up or i may catch one early thu's afternoon before i go to work.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

34 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it has been monumental over there and i have just posted in there that the N Adriatic sea is waking up

as for here,i am on afters this week so i hope that thu's night might light up or i may catch one early thu's afternoon before i go to work.

Hopefully we get something decent. 

And wow! The Adriatic is the gift that keeps on giving at the moment. Relentless stuff. Wish we had them sorts of conditions over here. If only the channel and Irish Sea had temps of 26-27c!  

Edited July 10, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Thunder and Lightning]

GFS seems to be showing some consistency towards the end of the forecast period with a period of high cape between the 21st and the 25th!!

[Summer Sun]

Updated thunderstorm warning for tomorrow

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-07-11&id=d448c056-2293-4ab6-9d40-8a7c8c5ce4ef

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 10 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 11 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:51 UTC Tue 09 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge initially over the British Isles on Wednesday will gradually retreat to the southeast, allowing an upper trough to approach from the Atlantic and ultimately allowing the flow aloft to gradually flatten. The surface pattern is rather messy, with fairly extensive cloud layers courtesy of a broad warm sector - surface dewpoints will widely be between 13-15C, but 16-17C widely over Ireland behind a second warm front which will move eastwards across the island during Wednesday morning / early afternoon.

In general, cloud cover could be a major inhibiting factor for deep convection - however, guidance favours some clearance over eastern Scotland and portions of Ireland during the afternoon and evening hours. Provided sufficient heating of this rather moist low-level airmass occurs, scattered heavy showers may develop.

Over Scotland cloud depth may be somewhat limited, which combined with very weak shear suggests that there may not be much in the way of lightning activity, despite the potential for heavy, slow-moving "pulse type" showers. We have tentatively included a low-end SLGT to highlight the main area of interest, and it could be the case that most activity occurs quite late in the day (i.e. in the evening hours). Localised surface water flooding is the main concern given slow movement of showers.

A low-end SLGT has also been issued for parts of Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland, where a slightly better environment will exist for lightning potential. It seems plausible that scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon through the central areas, drifting to the NE with time - with most activity then weakening and/or clearing to the Irish Sea by mid-evening. A few isolated strikes from elevated convection is also not out of the question along northwest Atlantic coasts, running NE into W Scotland during the evening/night hours, though confidence is not particularly high given a lack of widespread NWP support.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-10

[Chris.R]

Just drizzle for me now

[Mr Frost]

12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it has been monumental over there and i have just posted in there that the N Adriatic sea is waking up

as for here,i am on afters this week so i hope that thu's night might light up or i may catch one early thu's afternoon before i go to work.

It really has been insane over there recently - Italy in the firing line again today.

This is the fourth day in a row of massive storms in parts of Italy.

BREAKING! Big #TORNADO reported in Milano Marittima, north Italy today, July 10th! Report: Massimo Fusari

 

Always makes our UK and Ireland storms look pathetic - let’s see what the next couple of days bring for us. 

Would really like another plume to arrive end of July/start of August!

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mr Frost