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Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Posted (edited)

A brand new shiny thread to take us into the second half of the UK's storm season. It's been a fairly quiet convective year so far with predominantly cool weather since the beginning of summer, which isn't really conducive to proper summer storms. Some heat is expected to build later this week and hopefully this can be a fore-runner to some proper storms as we go into July and August. Feel free to discuss all things relating to current convective discussion in here. 

There have been a lot of disappointed storm lovers in recent days, that list probably doubled last night, if you need to have a good rant about lack of storms then you can do so in here. Hard to believe it is only 2 pages long considering the season so far 😛

The old thread is here for reference

Good luck to all who want storms.

 

Edited by Supacell

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I agree while there’s been a few underwhelming days of convective potential this week it would be nice to see less moaning about how it was much better in the past.

Last night could have been amazing had the conditions been just a little bit better for us. It only takes a tweak in the atmosphere. Last week’s storms were fantastic for those who were lucky to be in the narrow corridor they occurred in. I’m hoping the rest of summer gives us plenty of chances and that at least a small number of these are realised.

Personally I think the big events we get - while rare - are getting better each time. The increase in sea temps over time may make imports more likely in fact

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I agree while there’s been a few underwhelming days of convective potential this week it would be nice to see less moaning about how it was much better in the past.

Last night could have been amazing had the conditions been just a little bit better for us. It only takes a tweak in the atmosphere. Last week’s storms were fantastic for those who were lucky to be in the narrow corridor they occurred in. I’m hoping the rest of summer gives us plenty of chances and that at least a small number of these are realised.

Personally I think the big events we get - while rare - are getting better each time. The increase in sea temps over time may make imports more likely in fact

I was watching that storm system at hourly intervals throughout the night. Kicked off explosively over northern France at about 19:30 BST and continued to grow and intensify as it slowly moved NNE. However, when it reached the channel it lost strength for a bit, then came back to life suddenly again then fizzled out again to only about 7 strikes a minute and that’s continued to decrease. It even split and started to drift north and east and just ended up being some heavy rain with only one or two booms of thunder. Looked like we got a decaying storm! 

 

It it seems that the storms had used up all their energy in France as they were so violent it was pretty hard to believe that they would come back alive over the uk even though there was plenty of humidity and instability in the atmosphere. 

Bloody french stole all the lightning it seems ha ha! 

Oh well there’s still two and a half months of summer still! It will be truly memorable if any storms this year can live up to the colossal beasts over London in may last year

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

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So what’s next in the pipeline? Anything to look forward to in the coming days, maybe a few home growners? 

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1 hour ago, Supacell said:

A brand new shiny thread to take us into the second half of the UK's storm season. It's been a fairly quiet convective year so far with predominantly cool weather since the beginning of summer, which isn't really conducive to proper summer storms. Some heat is expected to build later this week and hopefully this can be a fore-runner to some proper storms as we go into July and August. Feel free to discuss all things relating to current convective discussion in here. 

There have been a lot of disappointed storm lovers in recent days, that list probably doubled last night, if you need to have a good rant about lack of storms then you can do so in here. Hard to believe it is only 2 pages long considering the season so far 😛

The old thread is here for reference

Good luck to all who want storms.

 

Just finished reading the old thread. I was tracking the radar, lightning maps and a variety of forecasting models last night, while intensely browsing the previous discussion, camera and tripod at the ready in the spare room looking over the fields to the south/east (London way) but I just had an inkling the storm was gonna be a Kent clipper after a while, around say 10PM. I woke up about 1AM and looked at the radar which pretty much clarified this. Hats off to you though mate, driving all the way from Derby to the south coast. Was it Hastings you said you ended up eventually? Glad you got to see some lightning. 

Fingers crossed the UK will see less disappointment when it comes to French imports (and thunderstorms in general) over July and August. 

Onwards and upwards! 

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Are those thunderstorms to the coast of Northern Spain the storms that could clip Cornwall and Ireland on Wednesday?

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2 hours ago, AIRMET said:

So what’s next in the pipeline? Anything to look forward to in the coming days, maybe a few home growners? 

Yes I think you will find a few home grown storms (if they can push through the cap) similar to yesterday over Welsh Marches.

Favoured places will be Brecon Beacons, Devon Hills,  converge zones.

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56 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Just finished reading the old thread. I was tracking the radar, lightning maps and a variety of forecasting models last night, while intensely browsing the previous discussion, camera and tripod at the ready in the spare room looking over the fields to the south/east (London way) but I just had an inkling the storm was gonna be a Kent clipper after a while, around say 10PM. I woke up about 1AM and looked at the radar which pretty much clarified this. Hats off to you though mate, driving all the way from Derby to the south coast. Was it Hastings you said you ended up eventually? Glad you got to see some lightning. 

Fingers crossed the UK will see less disappointment when it comes to French imports (and thunderstorms in general) over July and August. 

Onwards and upwards! 

Thanks UKSupercell. Yes I ended up settling in Hastings and watched as the storms moved up from the Channel and it seemed like directly over Hastings. To be fair, although not to the severity I had thought they would be, it was the best storm I have witnessed so far this year in the UK. I have some footage to edit and upload to my YouTube channel but haven't had the chance today as I fell asleep for most of afternoon after arriving home just before midday today. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:41 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge will expand across western Europe on Wednesday, while an upper vortex pivots westwards to the west of Biscay. The net result is advection of a high Theta-W airmass from France, across the Channel Islands and out to the Celtic Sea. Weak impulses running northwards from the English Channel into southern England may produce some showery bursts of rain from high-based elevated convection during Wednesday daytime. Lightning risk is considered quite low.

By late afternoon into the evening, an environment with very steep lapse rates and significant CAPE (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg) will evolve across the Celtic Sea, engaging with the left exit of a strong southerly jet to the west of Biscay. Model guidance is in reasonable agreement for a cluster of potentially very active elevated thunderstorms to develop during this timeframe, expanding in coverage as they drift west-northwestwards on the leading edge of this instability plume over open waters to the south of Ireland. Depending on the exact track, these may pass close to SW Ireland on Wednesday night - and upgrades may be required if trends suggest a heightened chance of reaching SW Ireland, especially late in the night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-26

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, convector said:

france gets all the glory 😞

That storm appears to be somewhat unforecast - Estofex don’t even have a level 1 for that part of the bay.

Just got me curious if parameters could support that building over land...

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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18 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That storm appears to be somewhat unforecast - Estofex don’t even have a level 1 for that part of the bay.

Just got me curious if parameters could support that building over land...

It wouldn't surprise me. They had a level 2 out for the south east last night and nothing much happened. Then again, upper level winds are veering east so those storms will probably head right through france and not even hit the channel. 

Saturday looks interesting though - could be some decent cape around with a cold front passing through in the evening (if the timing is right by then). Forecast profiles look capped but with enough forcing, it might not be an issue. 

nmmuktempnew.png

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Just imagine if that Biscay storm carried on its current course for another couple of hours...

🤪

Was this  forecast?

a band of thunderstorms currently in the BOB with another one following on behind,will they reach the uk tomorrow morning,should say today lol.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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A lot of activity in biscay at the moment. Any likely to head our way pretty please. 🙏

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fisher-people in a boat may have more luck at the moment. storms have been going in the Bay of Biscay for several hours, and another load out to sea, west of Portugal.

Storm-chasing in a fishing boat... could be a thing, for the future 😉

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Is the stuff coming out of France forecast ?

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hay guys ..whats the chance of that nasty looking front hitting worthy farm aka glastonbury festival ..looking at radar and sat images ..id say its got a pretty good chance ... your thoughts ..stuck in a tent worthy farm 

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1 hour ago, Cableguy said:

Is the stuff coming out of France forecast ?

yep, Summer Sun posted it last night a few posts up on this page

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Posted (edited)

Nearly 4 years ago now. How I wish to see a corker like this again soon, the Bournemouth storm of July 2015

Still probably ranks as storm of the decade for me. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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15 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Nearly 4 years ago now. How I wish to see a corker like this again soon, the Bournemouth storm of July 2015

Still probably ranks as storm of the decade for me. 

That came up east of Swindon- great video 🙂

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1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Nearly 4 years ago now. How I wish to see a corker like this again soon, the Bournemouth storm of July 2015

Still probably ranks as storm of the decade for me. 

Amazing video - shame they weren’t focussing more on the sky - but for a short video that’s a ridiculous number of close strikes!

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, JK1 said:

Me the other night at radar as the storm slowly died The storm that could of been rip, but ey still have over 2 months of summer left so theres hope 🙂

6F12489C-ECFB-4785-A781-160A55AB8917.gif

Knock the next 3 weeks off that for the delay until we get signs of something, then give it a week to nearly happen but fail. Rinse repeat and it gets us to 8 weeks’ time, which makes it the start of September - guess what, we’ll have a storm then - but it won’t be for everyone - as always some will miss out, but it will be the last storm of 2019 (except for that 3 flash wonder over the northwest in November).

2019, what a year that was!

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Lightning strikes out to the south-west of the Uk, if they keep moving north, could be on track for S or SW parts of Republic of Ireland

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