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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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The latest from the cpc anomoly's this evening is as you was from last night,trough stuck out west drawing in plume conditions from the S/SW,the latter more of an unsettled scenario with a possible breakdown from the west but still warm with a SW'ly/W flow

 875704895_610day.03(1).thumb.gif.4b08604ae9abeee1d9eaa0414a72e987.gif2053499001_814day.03(1).thumb.gif.f363f5afa23b4ed8a2b291ece54ccadd.gif

we do see temps on a down-slide towards the end of the week but that's miles away in terms of meteorology and we could see this warm/hot spell extend,we know how hard blocks are to shift!

I really hope the gefs mean comes up trumps cos the ecm mean is not as good at day ten.

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.a379bd9695fad441f12c1037bd5672af.pngEDH1-240.thumb.gif.2f290e537d51156dadc9d1c3738ef3ae.gif

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Now we are within the period of interest re: upper air/surface air, we can see some charts showing how, between 850hpa and 1000hpa,  a layer of cold air has worked its way into the North Sea and been

Just wanted to send a 'thank you' to several kind members who have sent lovely supporting messages over the last 10 days. It has been very much appreciated ? So to keep on topic, I had bette

Sorry, but this does just look like a bear having a poo doesn't it?  Or is it just me? ECM T192 drags the heat close to our shores...

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Just had a look at the extended ecm ensembles going out to end of July and thought till 2nd August... Basically the mean Is coming in at 7.9c at this point... The highest member was 14.9c and the lowest was 1.9c....wow...that would make  even Feb blizzard proud. 

On Friday the 26th the main run coming in at 23.3c with the mean coming in at 11.3c....thats some difference... 

Edited by Mattwolves
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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

If its of any interest the latest icon has joined ecm at 120 hours!!!atlantic trough backed further west and hot air incoming from the south!!

Woohooo!!

Any support for EC is welcome, 18z will give us a good idea if EC is in the right ballpark .. 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Woohooo!!

Any support for EC is welcome, 18z will give us a good idea if EC is in the right ballpark .. 

I did say earlier that i feel ecm could be the one thats right here!!maybe not as extreme as this evenings 12z run but defo better than the gfs 12z!!

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Woohooo!!

Any support for EC is welcome, 18z will give us a good idea if EC is in the right ballpark .. 

Several members disregard the 18z as the pub run. But I dare say many will be interested tonight. If the ECM has support, we could be looking at a prolonged heatwave. 

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9 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Several members disregard the 18z as the pub run. But I dare say many will be interested tonight. If the ECM has support, we could be looking at a prolonged heatwave. 

The Ecm isnt supportive of a prolonged heatwave though.... The mean is down below 10c by months end! I don't think the gfs 18z being supportive in any way will have much baring... The morning runs nearly always play down the 18z run. 

 

 

 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Either way we are going to see summery conditions next week,what the hell with the temps,lets just enjoy it eh

hopefully there will be the added bonus of some severe storms to come with it,a typical British scenario?

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The mean is down below 10c by months end! 

The mean is well below 10°C now, but it hasn't stopped temps getting in to the low - mid twenties quite widely today.

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The mean is well below 10°C now, but it hasn't stopped temps getting in to the low - mid twenties quite widely today.

Yes I agree a mean of 8c can bring low mid 20s...but it's not supportive of an extended heatwave... Ie... 30+ degrees. 

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The Ecm isnt supportive of a prolonged heatwave though.... The mean is down below 10c by months end! I don't think the gfs 18z being supportive in any way will have much baring... The morning runs nearly always play down the 18z run. 

 

 

 

Sure, but month’s end is an eternity away in forecasting terms. What’s the outlook until 29 July?

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2 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Sure, but month’s end is an eternity away in forecasting terms. What’s the outlook until 29 July?

Most definitely... Alot can change, I agree... And who's to say its not going to be settled... The mean was coming in at 1012mb and there was a fair few runs 1020+mb...so it still looks good regarding lengthier settled conditions. 

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The Gfs legacy should now be renamed the gfs legend, as it smashes the core of heat right through the uk and quite far North to.... The FV3 only bringing a glancing blow to the SE.... The new kid on the block the party pooper once again... The legacy.... Absolutely Stirling... 

gfs-1-138.png

gfs-1-144.png

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Hmm... FV3 18z came a lot closer than the 12z did to the ECM 12z / ICON 18z solution, but didn’t split the trough cleanly enough or have the additional trough into the N Atlantic come into play fast enough.

The mere presence of adjustments closer to it from even the furthest away of the models on the 12z cycle is noteworthy. The ECM outcome doesn’t look quite as much of a wildcard now, especially after those very interesting points from Tamara. 

Trough deconstruction - the buzzword of the next few days...?

 

ECM-style outcome now at 20% odds in my mind. Yikes.

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Though the GFS 18z is rarely the most reliable run for some reason, it does seem pretty much down the middle of all the options seen today - heat building until Wednesday, swept away Thursday. 

Indeed, and then the trough to the west fills out. Leaving it dry and settled, but not hot, in the SE by next weekend...

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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Hmm... FV3 18z came a lot closer than the 12z did to the ECM 12z / ICON 18z solution, but didn’t split the trough cleanly enough or have the additional trough into the N Atlantic come into play fast enough.

The mere presence of adjustments closer to it from even the furthest away of the models on the 12z cycle is noteworthy. The ECM outcome doesn’t look quite as much of a wildcard now, especially after those very interesting points from Tamara. 

Trough deconstruction - the buzzword of the next few days...?

 

ECM-style outcome now at 20% odds in my mind. Yikes.

More a phrase than a word no? ?

No on a serious note both the FV3 and Legacy attempt to  deconstruct the trough ECM style. Regarding the N Atlantic trough it seems relevant to notice that the ECM 12z was more amplified initially allowing for the newfoundland trough to aid the pattern transition. 

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM op of the past 3 days has either been in the hottest or the coolest clusters! 

But judging by where cause of the uncertainty lies - namely, the dealing with the Atlantic trough - I think things will start to firm up tomorrow. One needs to also bear in mind - a UKMO/ECM op run combo will usually lead the way at D5/D6. So a very hot Wednesday looks in the lead right now, to me. 

Not sure what is going on with the ECM. It sure doesn't seem to be the model it once was.

I genuinely think people are clutching at massive straws with regards to the 12z ECM DET output. It's so far above its ensemble pack that it really is hard to take it seriously at all. I'm not poo pooing the idea of the trough splitting like that but I don't think if it happens it'll be as clean nor as far west. 

Edited by CreweCold
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So far nothing going with the ECM op, the UKMO looks similar to the 12z. Wednesday very hot but with a front moving east later on into Thursday.

GFS, poor consistency here, it will take two attempts to break the pattern down with Thursday possibly being hot on this run as well.

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10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So far nothing going with the ECM op, the UKMO looks similar to the 12z. Wednesday very hot but with a front moving east later on into Thursday.

GFS, poor consistency here, it will take two attempts to break the pattern down with Thursday possibly being hot on this run as well.

Yes, cant see much backing for the sensational EC det last night,perhaps to be expected.

That said , at face value UKMO doesn't look great at 144 but the 850s reveal the warm air still in place across the UK.

Are thunderstorms going to be on the menu i wonder.

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The movement of the upper trough and energy distribution, and subsequently the ridge, are paramount of the next couple of days and according to the gfs it goes like this

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3969600.thumb.png.35f8f75414fbb4ba2fcb8574b1925ee9.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-4056000.thumb.png.d682ebdc97d0c065663f809deb242903.pnggfs-nhemi-z300_speed-4056000.thumb.png.5ada15c0a29189e2858d56da6ffc60a0.png

Thus on the surface frontal activity and cooler air will push slowly in from the west with the possibly of a classic Spanish Plume scenario whilst the south east remains very warm

gfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4066800.thumb.png.a9e90a727e4c354bed2a73143d0849c2.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-4077600.thumb.png.331cc4224be116fb8ca03dd52a451cdb.png

Edited by knocker
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