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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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23 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 8, slack southerly with 850s up to 23c. Probably the closest we will get to a chart capable of producing 40c in the UK.

Raw ECM data shows 36 at 1:00 PM next Friday...So only imagine the peak temp...

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Now we are within the period of interest re: upper air/surface air, we can see some charts showing how, between 850hpa and 1000hpa,  a layer of cold air has worked its way into the North Sea and been

Just wanted to send a 'thank you' to several kind members who have sent lovely supporting messages over the last 10 days. It has been very much appreciated ? So to keep on topic, I had bette

Sorry, but this does just look like a bear having a poo doesn't it?  Or is it just me? ECM T192 drags the heat close to our shores...

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Evening all ?

A hot or very hot ECM 12Z for the south and south east with 72 hours of 850s above 20c and the 24c line flirting with the south coast.

The problem is of course we don't know how much cloud there will be and that will have a big impact as we saw last month. High 850s under cloudy skies with thunder mean sticky humidity but no heat records. The key, as we saw on 29/6, was to get the clear skies and sunshine from dawn to dusk. 

Other shave noted it's likely to be an outlier - doesn't mean it won't verify but it does mean, as we see with easterlies in midwinter, the rollercoaster ride will be open for business over the next few days.

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28 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

850hPa temperatures have little baring on surface temperatures. 

No GEFS member showed surface heat on par with the ECM run.

You may want to take a look at the GFS ensembles...

850hPa's are a good guide as long as there isn't a temperature inversion. The ECM would threaten 40C if it came off but the chances of it coming off are only small.

More members are going for heat later on in the weak but the ECM looks suspect on Tuesday. The splitting of the energy of the low to the SW looks suspect to me.

We shall see...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Friday on ECM is astonishing judging by its raw data. Allowing for usual adjustments, most of England would exceed 90F (yes, MOST of the country), and a fair few places would exceed 100F.

Mind boggling charts, dangerous heat really!???

ECM0-168.thumb.gif.39c2fb42da3042513f00325f917f867b.gifECM0-192.thumb.gif.064db9b0c677c53adda29b45a41465e3.gif

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Would need to see the Euro precipitation charts before saying that we could break the record but the Tues-Weds charts amount to perfection for heat building and Thurs-Fri has insane uppers.

GFS starts to develop storms Tuesday night and drenches a lot of the UK from Wednesday night.

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I suppose that if we want to challenge 40C, then all the ingredients are there to give it a chance. Is it likely - no. Possible - yes. If these type of op runs are being repeated tomorrow then I think the Met Office will start to put out advance warnings.

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Friday on ECM is astonishing judging by its raw data. Allowing for usual adjustments, most of England would exceed 90F (yes, MOST of the country), and a fair few places would exceed 100F.

It's no joke that the ECM would actually represent a serious situation, as some parts would have temperatures between 34C and 39C on five successive days. 

We'll probably get a good idea on next week by this time tomorrow. A shift to the hot path this evening, for sure. 

Here are those raw values.

The site always shows the maximum temperatures being around 7am. I think it's because it's based on US time.

friday.png

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I don’t understand the need to use both F and C when quoting temperatures, it’s just tabloid sensationalism.  Everything as usual is so knife edge. It’s interesting to see how the rest of Europe cope with a few warm days, we always seem to have an excuse.  Back to the charts and it looks good for a few days, hopefully the cloud stays away and temperatures rocket, the ECM looks good, but come the morning it could all be so different 

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2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Would need to see the Euro precipitation charts before saying that we could break the record but the Tues-Weds charts amount to perfection for heat building and Thurs-Fri has insane uppers.

GFS starts to develop storms Tuesday night and drenches a lot of the UK from Wednesday night.

Precipitation up to the end of Friday 26th July.

precip.png

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Here are those raw values.

The site always shows the maximum temperatures being around 7am. I think it's because it's based on US time.

friday.png

There's actually a UK equivalent of this website, showing in Celsius and the BST timezone.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/temperature/20190726-1200z.html

Edited by Loifeless
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Here are those raw values.

The site always shows the maximum temperatures being around 7am. I think it's because it's based on US time.

friday.png

Not quite the 40c being touted by some on this forum, then? ?

The ECM is certainly exceptional but it's not like we haven't been here before with this model, it does like it's extremes in recent years. Looking at the ECM mean it certainly seems the Op was one of the warmest if not THE warmest of the pack. I still think 32-34c is likely widely with a localised 35/36c somewhere in the usual spots. 

If we see a continuation of this evenings ECM in the morning (given it's lack of consistency in recent days) and some support from other models, then we could probably expect to see something exceptionally warm. But as things stand, it's one run and it's an extreme run at that.

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Thats twice now in a summer where such hot anomalies have been pushing up into western europe what a bizarre summer this. The pendulum swings once again and this time round the temperatures are responding on the ground compared to end of june. It is concerning however if this does happen, what will happen if that air source sticks over us for a lengthy period 

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The ecm NH profiles for T120 and T144 and the clusters from this morning at T132 and T156. This is just not right one way or tother The shape of the trough dropping into the Atlantic this evening very early on  has diverted the jet which facilitates the following evolution. The mean anomalies this evening, as far as one can tell, reverts to the previous version

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071800_132.thumb.png.183896368c212ff8981218a3aa8f2da1.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-3883200.thumb.png.99e05019c0a2d8204c53dd8a462c95b2.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019071800_156.thumb.png.0c855d96f03f9180b48d5d42671c8877.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-3969600.thumb.png.b673431baf02f4ed910badd1e61d17d8.png

Edited by knocker
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15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Here are those raw values.

The site always shows the maximum temperatures being around 7am. I think it's because it's based on US time.

friday.png

You can change it to BST/GMT at the bottom of the page by selecting the UK

586602150_download(1).thumb.png.c0a40ca764be11434330810a08859abb.png

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Well I say if in doubt look up the mighty Navgem .  ( Tongue firmly in cheek ) Ahem actually this is the best it gets so not on this occasion. But Navgem we still love you we really do .

8FB1F40B-3720-4123-9391-711F507CA91A.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not quite the 40c being touted by some on this forum, then? ?

 

This has been done before, those charts are for 12pm a whole 4-5 hours before typical peak temperatures. If its 35C at 12pm it will be a few degrees higher at 4pm. Not saying we will get 40C, very low probability in fact, but if that exact ECM chart came off then I would say it would be a huge possibility. Not really seeing what is silly about that.

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