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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Heights slicing right through the pole- 

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UKMO has Greenland blocking at day 6-

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I should have made myself clearer Crewe- no sign of northern blocking having any impact on our weather on GFS- UKMO can have as much Greenland blocking as it likes if the uppers into the UK are what is progged ?

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Now we are within the period of interest re: upper air/surface air, we can see some charts showing how, between 850hpa and 1000hpa,  a layer of cold air has worked its way into the North Sea and been

Just wanted to send a 'thank you' to several kind members who have sent lovely supporting messages over the last 10 days. It has been very much appreciated ? So to keep on topic, I had bette

Sorry, but this does just look like a bear having a poo doesn't it?  Or is it just me? ECM T192 drags the heat close to our shores...

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My God the GEFS 12z mean is the best I've seen this week so far regarding next week's heat..astonishing..what a scorcher we could be in for next week!!!???

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Just now, northwestsnow said:

I should have made myself clearer Crewe- no sign of northern blocking having any impact on our weather on GFS- UKMO can have as much Greenland blocking as it likes if the uppers into the UK are what is progged ?

Well yeah, we've ridden our luck a lot so far this summer bar one week in June. We could just as easily have been stuck under a trough for most of the time. The background -NAO has been as such that we've only really suffered dregs of Atlantic troughing.

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A quick glance at the GFS ensembles suggests that the OP was very much at the progressive end of the lot. They appear an upgrade to me.

A lot of runs build further heat after wednesday but some of these runs also tone it down a tad on Tuesday too (ie no 20C uppers crossing the UK!)

Clearly that low to the west come Monday is causing a lot of trouble with regards to how exactly next week pans out.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

There are some incredible ensemble members breaching the 20c uppers threshold towards day 10. Would imagine the all time record would be under threat.

That’s interesting coming from one of the most rational and talented members on this forum (and one who is NOT a heat fan?). I’ll take a look. Eyes down, look in, for the ECM.

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1 minute ago, Downpour said:

That’s interesting coming from one of the most rational and talented members on this forum (and one who is NOT a heat fan?). I’ll take a look. Eyes down, look in, for the ECM.

Take a look at P4 and P10, blimey.....

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There are some incredible ensemble members breaching the 20c uppers threshold towards day 10. Would imagine the all time record would be under threat.

Could do but we had above 20c uppers before with only 34c breached, although that was earlier in the year so perhaps the SST's hadn't warmed up to quite the extent for a record to be broken.

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1 minute ago, Downpour said:

That’s interesting coming from one of the most rational and talented members on this forum (and one who is NOT a heat fan?). I’ll take a look. Eyes down, look in, for the ECM.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could do but we had above 20c uppers before with only 34c breached, although that was earlier in the year so perhaps the SST's hadn't warmed up to quite the extent for a record to be broken.

The difference this time is that we're not going to be seeing a surface flow from the N Sea by the looks of it- the upshot being that the only thing available to moderate temperatures will be the saturation of the air- will storms be prevalent/will detritus from decaying storms obstruct surface heating etc etc.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could do but we had above 20c uppers before with only 34c breached, although that was earlier in the year so perhaps the SST's hadn't warmed up to quite the extent for a record to be broken.

It was a little different in June. Now we have SST’s 3c warmer, drier ground and the possibility of several days on the bounce to really take advantage of the higher partial thicknesses. I think on the 34c day in June Heathrow started at around 14c, possibility of a couple of nights above 20c next week so 35-37c could be on the cards assuming the more progressive solutions aren’t correct. 

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11 minutes ago, Downpour said:

That’s interesting coming from one of the most rational and talented members on this forum (and one who is NOT a heat fan?). I’ll take a look. Eyes down, look in, for the ECM.

No I'm not a heat fan- and it may well surprise some on here that I am always impartial and pragmatic when approaching the analysis of weather model output ?

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could do but we had above 20c uppers before with only 34c breached, although that was earlier in the year so perhaps the SST's hadn't warmed up to quite the extent for a record to be broken.

Yep but even on the Saturday, the cool flow wasn’t cut off until morning. Some places were down near 12C, so there was a low base.

Next week, there will be some warm nights.

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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr take on Tue/Wed/Thu temps, 36c possible for the S/E Tue.. 

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That shows a 34C for NW England on Tuesday. That's about as hot as it gets here.

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47 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Ironically the W / NW probably won't see the best of the potential heat , that'll be for the S/SE

The exact airflow and where any rainfall ends up will be determined in the coming days but bear in mind that high 20s / low 30s is just a few degrees off the Scottish record, so would be the equivalent of 35'C etc showing for the south east. 

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That shows a 34C for NW England on Tuesday. That's about as hot as it gets here.

 

5 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr take on Tue/Wed/Thu temps, 36c possible for the S/E Tue.. 

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drops backs to the mid / upperish 20's away from SE from Wednesday assuming these are correct , which is better anyway don't want to have an ice cream melt away before I start it

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Last summer we saw two days on the spin where 35c was reached. Given the current output we could have a good chance of repeating that feat next Tuesday/Wednesday.

A small cluster deliver a potentially severe heatwave by taking the approaching trough out of the equation leaving the UK under a slack heat dome as others have shown already. But resolving the gate like behaviour of the upstream Atlantic ridge is going to be tricky.

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not bad, even at T+297: lots of sunshine with maxes in the low to mid-twenties; much more comfortable.:oldgood:

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Yes and over 5/6 weeks since the solstice at that point, direct sunshine should be a little more pleasant to those who don't like the full force of the solstice sunshine (me included!)

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19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No I'm not a heat fan- and it may well surprise some on here that I am always impartial and pragmatic when approaching the analysis of weather model output ?

Doesn't surprise me, always rated your analysis, thanks.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yes and over 5/6 weeks since the solstice at that point, direct sunshine should be a little more pleasant to those who don't like the full force of the solstice sunshine (me included!)

There was me thinking you’d joined the hot crew! ??

ECM rolling . . .

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