Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Frosty.]

The GEFS will deserve congratulating if next week pans out like I'm hoping for, it's been showing this heat spike since it was deep FI and now it's only a small number of days away..and I've followed its progress very closely since it first hinted at it..fingers crossed!!!!!

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The Euro 4 shows the wet weather tomorrow nicely across England and Wales, it looks to clear by early evening. And quite a few beefy showers in the N/NE into Saturday, more hit and miss elsewhere. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Not posted in here for a while but there looks to be a waft of plumatic air lol next week as can be seen on last nights cpc 500mb anomoly's,the trough stuck out west and a block to our NE,ok there will be fronts trying to cross the uk at times but it's looking good

6-10 days

even in the extended 8-14 days the trough still stuck out west with high pressure still in control but that's a bit far out 

De-built(Dutch) ecm ens show that temps could hit 35c next Weds just across the water so it will be interesting how far north into the uk these high temps get

 

i will be on afters next week so i will not be enjoying the heat and humidity but i hope it repays with some H'dingers(didn't want to say the full word lol)

i hope that you all enjoy next weeks weather,see you all for now.

 

[Frosty.]

The ICON 12z shows the heat dome building from the south during the first half of next week, becoming very warm and humid, indeed hot and humid further s / se and following a fine and sunny start, the threat of thunderstorms increases, there's another pulse of heat later next week that extends further n / nw than the initial one..great run for heat..and for storm enthusiasts!! 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Derecho]

Appears to be less digging of cool air from the trough to our south on the latest GFS.... which may mean the block isn't as stubborn on this run... still plenty of uncertainties to iron out.

and hot for many on Tuesday, the UKMO is more keen to dig the trough to our west. The T144 chart looks very thundery indeed

Edited July 18, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h becomes hot and humid, perhaps very hot and still going strong at day 6..thunderstorm threat increasing too, as per the icon!..stunning for heat as next week goes on!!

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Haven't got the 850's yet but the ukmo 12h becomes hot and humid, perhaps very hot and still going strong at day 6..thunderstorm threat increasing too, as per the icon!

Boooooooommmm...... Direct hit...

[Methuselah]

Tuesday night could be tad balmy, what with those 20C+ sat over SE and EA?

   

I've just remembered: I'll be out in the sunshine every day from Tuesday to Friday!

[Mike Poole]

T144 on GFS, GFS legacy and GEM:

 

Illustrates remaining uncertainty, glancing blow on the FV3, direct hit on the others, especially GEM. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

T144 on GFS, GFS legacy and GEM:

 

Illustrates remaining uncertainty, glancing blow on the FV3, direct hit on the others, especially GEM. 

UKMO looks really hot at 144.

[Djdazzle]

Hard to believe that we were looking at 20+ upper charts 4 weeks ago. And here we are looking at them again. Crazy times.

And no danger of a dodgy North Sea flow this time.

[Methuselah]

With this kind of temperature gradient, low pressure and little wind, any thunderstorms could last for a good while?

   

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

With this kind of temperature gradient, low pressure and little wind, any thunderstorms could last for a good while?

   

Complete rain maker on the 12z GFS. Frontal boundary pretty much straddles the UK at day 7

The result in that scenario is inches upon inches of rain

[Singularity]

Can’t say I’m impressed by FV3 having the Atlantic low 14 mb deeper at 6 am next Tue compared to the preceding run.

Certainly highlights the susceptibility of the hot air incursion to how much that low consolidates.

Interesting to see UKMO and GEM leading the charge of the heat brigade. Looking difficult to contain the heat for more than a few days though; Atlantic trough ironically becomes too amplified, keeping the door open to the north or northwest instead of closing it with a ridge (which would be on the SE flank of the trough) from the N. Atlantic.

[Gordon Webb]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Complete rain maker on the 12z GFS. Frontal boundary pretty much straddles the UK at day 7

The result in that scenario is inches upon inches of rain

looking at that rain chart extreme SE and EA might do alright rest of england and wales may as well break out the wellies , only thing worse than heat and humidity is heat,humidity and loads of rain

Edited July 18, 2019 by Gordon Webb

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Can’t say I’m impressed by FV3 having the Atlantic low 14 mb deeper at 6 am next Tue compared to the preceding run.

Certainly highlights the susceptibility of the hot air incursion to how much that low consolidates.

Interesting to see UKMO and GEM leading the charge of the heat brigade. Looking difficult to contain the heat for more than a few days though; Atlantic trough ironically becomes too amplified, keeping the door open to the north or northwest instead of closing it with a ridge (which would be on the SE flank of the trough) from the N. Atlantic.

We seem to keep touching base back to a N blocking regime- this appears to be the background synoptic at the moment

It develops again towards the end of the GEM run

After 2-3 years of pretty much consistent +NAO conditions, it's a welcome change considering we're just 5 months off winter.

Edited July 18, 2019 by CreweCold

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

looking at that rain chart extreme SE and EA might do alright rest of england and wales may as well break out the wellies , only thing worse than heat and humidity is heat,humidity and loads of rain

It’s so far out, I’m not bothered at this stage, although Crewe is correct in what he says.

[Frosty.]

Thunderstorms are usually the price you have to pay for hot and humid weather and I think it's a price worth paying...I love plumes and it looks like we're going to get one based on the 12z runs and much better than the last one at that!!!!!!!

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Something for everyone, with the heat and I would say potential downpours.. The ukmo covering the next 6 day shows some serious precipitation towards the West and Northwest... 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We seem to keep touching base back to a N blocking regime- this appears to be the background synoptic at the moment

It develops again towards the end of the GEM run

After 2-3 years of pretty much consistent +NAO conditions, it's a welcome change considering we're just 5 months off winter.

No sign of northern blocking on GFS right out to the end of July / beginning of August..

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No sign of northern blocking on GFS right out to the end of July / beginning of August..

Heights slicing right through the pole- 

UKMO has Greenland blocking at day 6-

Edited July 18, 2019 by CreweCold

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Something for everyone, with the heat and I would say potential downpours.. The ukmo covering the next 6 day shows some serious precipitation towards the West and Northwest... 

Ironically the W / NW probably won't see the best of the potential heat , that'll be for the S/SE

[Guest]

The GFS 12z Ops run was a big outlier in the way it clears the heat. By 19z next Thursday the Ops run over Bournemouth has returned to normal around 9.6c at 850pha, at the same time there are no less than ELEVEN members still above 20c and a further 4 above 17c. An outstanding ensemble grouping. 

[Methuselah]

Here's Gavin P's latest model-assessment video...NAO set to turn positive.

 

[Man With Beard]

Regardless of what happens Wednesday onwards, Tuesday itself is firming up now as a noteworthy day of its own - likely to be between 33C and 35C as a maximum in my opinion.