Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

As @mb018538 points out, there are signs of a coming together in the models this morning in the D4-D6 range, but because of doubts over the intensity of the incoming low, I think the D7-D9 is far from resolved.

Again the new GFS/FV3 has done a good job picking the pattern at around D8-D10 - the ECM had not seen the ridge breaking to Scandi at all in this range. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope the ecm is off the scent at day 7-10....I’m off on holiday next Friday and it looks awful with low pressure becoming parked over the UK. It’ll be interesting to see the pressure ensemble and clusters later - I expect a host of different options will be there again. The second low coming in will be hard to resolve at this range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I hope the ecm is off the scent at day 7-10....I’m off on holiday next Friday and it looks awful with low pressure becoming parked over the UK. It’ll be interesting to see the pressure ensemble and clusters later - I expect a host of different options will be there again. The second low coming in will be hard to resolve at this range.

The ECM has been awful past day 7 for ages now. Constantly coming up with outlier solutions. They must be scratching their heads about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ICON 0z looks better than yesterday's 12z with more of a direct hit for the dome of very warm uppers..temps next week could soar into the low 30's celsius in the S / SE.🔥🔥🔥

icon-1-135.thumb.png.8ee2604676f7bfb0766db36d55b47300.pngicon-0-135.thumb.png.c8492edb1cb8e7293160680d91d62783.pngicon-1-156.thumb.png.0066957557bc54100b59e52d08c0f389.pngicon-0-156.thumb.png.6a28498f1bc41cd6be5568520ac5e4b7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning! Well looks like a very warm humid spell for next week but increasingly unsettled especially for southern Britain and if the models stick to there output this morning the news maker next week will be flooding issues over parts of the country which have not had much rain so far this month😗

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good morning! Well looks like a very warm humid spell for next week but increasingly unsettled especially for southern Britain and if the models stick to there output this morning the news maker next week will be flooding issues over parts of the country which have not had much rain so far this month😗

Really? Can you post a chart that implies flooding issues? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning's GEFS ensembles still show an awful lot of scatter!:shok: And the op, as has been the case for a while now, continues to flap between one extreme or the other---or both!

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Let's hope the other models start to show a little more consistency, past Day 7?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The EC mean looks very very warm next week, mon/tues could be hot in the sarf!

 

image.thumb.png.570138226a7d4cca148630597fb95ba2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Really? Can you post a chart that implies flooding issues? 

Wednesday to Friday does show some heavier rain on both ECM & GFS in the south

GFS to Wednesday evening

us_model-en-999-0_modusa_2019071800_165_7523_157.thumb.png.b00aad007bfd1963eece1a548a214092.png

And then to Friday evening

us_model-en-999-0_modusa_2019071800_213_7523_157.thumb.png.f178c9bbeb9ea2be150ace3dd29adc83.png

ECM to Wednesday afternoon

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019071800_162_7523_157.thumb.png.c37cc83483d765e243c182a17a895817.png

And then to Friday afternoon

us_model-en-999-0_modez_2019071800_210_7523_157.thumb.png.384e6e91101417f22df00299ef3a4686.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Insert other media.urlInsert other media.urlInsert other media.urlAs @mb018538 points out, there are signs of a coming together in the models this morning in the D4-D6 range, but because of doubts over the intensity of the incoming low, I think the D7-D9 is far from resolved.

Again the new GFS/FV3 has done a good job picking the pattern at around D8-D10 - the ECM had not seen the ridge breaking to Scandi at all in this range. 

Looking like a massive heatwave Monday to Thursday next week - GFS has 37 in Manchester and 40 degrees in Sheffield then temperatures plunging to 13 by D10 . Rain across London at the moment and turning fresher today 

Latest_Satellite_180719.PNG

Edited by NApplewhite
Upload

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC mean looks very very warm next week, mon/tues could be hot in the sarf!

 

image.thumb.png.570138226a7d4cca148630597fb95ba2.png

Looking good in Southern England 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 0z mean is absolutely on board with a very warm / hot spell next week, especially further s / e / se!!!!🔥🔥🔥👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

41682569-4858-402E-8F63-66118D9A2D04.thumb.png.3778fdaae82cb55f8e1d04998c22fa52.png

43AF33B2-2EC9-4620-9D70-34F198B773B5.thumb.png.882b61c60a60d778b80fc8af0869fd61.png

 

As perhaps expected the ECM op run on the low side today - far too aggressive with the low pressure development at the end of the run, and below average temperature wise. It looks very likely that a breakdown will happen by the end of the week - just how unsettled it will be is open to debate.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a massive improvement on both ukmo and ecm in regards to next weeks heatwave!!hotter uppers have backed west compared to 12z yesterday!!gfs continues to be consistant with temps around 30 degrees pretty much everyday for monday to friday!!ukmo looks dangerously.hot at 144 hours!!make the most of whatever rain we get over the next 24 to 36 hours cos after that we shall be relying on those big thunderstorms to water the gardens next week!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM NH profiles, at 24, 120 and 240 look rather spiffing...:oldgood:

npsh500.024.pngnpsh500.120.pngnpsh500.240.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I still haven't found out why it is I get different outputs to just about everyone else who posts. It's a never ending mystery 😉 And I'm wondering whether the stipend from the SE tourist boards has been increased recent;y

 

Yes - unfortunately this happens all the time, if you would believe the ECM snowfall totals in winter that French website shows,, it still wouldn't have melted by now and we would be staring down the barrel at another ice age.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Studying the ECM individual ensembles for next Wednesday, a big split between op style runs that shunt the heat east quickly, and furnace runs that keep the heat over the UK, I'm guessing like the UKMO. About 30-40% of the members would threaten the July record (I'm thinking 35C or more, the record is nearly 37C), or hotter still. 

Edited by Man With Beard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Well the Gem may have said no yesterday but it says yes today!!!..I think support has increased so far today for a hot spell next week but probably becoming very humid too with an increasing risk of thunderstorms breaking out in-situ and imported from france!!👍🔥🌞🌩️........plumey!!

gem-1-108.thumb.png.f2438d8227e6a598a74009407747850a.pnggem-1-132.thumb.png.47bc38e2d8eeedede3b24873abfb0db1.pnggem-1-156.thumb.png.88e08e8459e86f8a62f1552174d9af07.pnggem-0-156.thumb.png.c303752d3557dc4f697cb3412511bb24.pnggem-1-174.thumb.png.b7d880c9968a0c83d43d718390438d98.png

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s interesting that both the Euro and GFS this morning both have messy ends. The front gets near the east coast but a wave forms near the south so we end up with a messy warm, wet pattern over eastern England.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

What little information is available recently on the 500 mb anomaly charts, chiefly nil from GFS and only anomalies with ECMWF, just NOAA with the full output, but it does suggest the possibility of a split NW-SE for weather including temperature in the next 6-10 days.

This is very well presented in this link

My 500 mb anomaly outputs, chiefly based on the NOAA output

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Just based on the NOAA 8-14 and the incursion of heat mentioned for the 6-10 day outlook is not shown at all on this period, no signal for significant +ve height anomalies east of the UK but the 500 mb flow still shows the flow into the UK from S of West, so not all unsettled for any part of the UK.

Edited by johnholmes
addition of word to qualify a comment

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Certainly the Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates an increasingly very warm / hot and humid spell across southern uk lasting most of next week, especially for the s / se and even by the end its still warm..based on current output i would expect hot sunshine but with an increasing risk of thunderstorms next week!!👍🔥

EDM0-120.thumb.gif.4d4055a9a0e1d372ca793d1e3c06acaa.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.5e3b2323bd2d57ef8ed78b87d353181d.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.b54ea4df7fc6e04d95713e8f8b085a79.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.b08996bf4589342d6975553769dda3cd.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.4ab566737211adbbacc17a7245a86331.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.90907817dba1b6488564b8642df6d1a9.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.45b2f80180b301def7d5db7f799a8566.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.2f54ec6c540916508186e6ac7b432aa4.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.600c106aaf0229805fbf669e7ed45024.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.b20b5349b234cc132a881b652de91eeb.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 6z looks like a sizeable step towards the UKMO to me.

Models converging on a spell of very warm/hot (maybe very hot?) weather next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday's looking good for my farmwork!🔥

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...