Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Mark wheeler]

25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looks like a N / S split..better for the south..another positive.

Yes looking at the Mighty Navgem it looks like we may see a north south split , obviously a positive for the south . 

[Downpour]

Some fabulous charts starting to come through for the final week of July. Interesting to see how these develop.

[Frosty.]

Some insane GEFS 12z members for heat in the last quarter of July..astonishing potential if we get lucky!!..our summers come and go so fast and I want to get the best out of it before it's gone!!!!...accentuate the positive..

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

A very interesting set of 12Z ensembles. I'd say that things might be starting to 'tip' toward a warmer outlook?

   

   

I also think it's fair to say, that the number of stonkers outweighs the number of stinkers?

[knocker]

The ecm progression Weds > Sat next week

Weds

The upper low to the NW of the UK with the next one leaving Newfoundland, The surface front approaching western Ireland

Thursday

The main low starts to swivel as the subtropical high ridges north west and the next trough tales closer order, The rain belt/front is now over the country

The trough ridge development continues on Friday as the new trough phases with the former The front has cleared resulting in a showery day

By Saturday the two troughs have completed their amalgamation and the whole caboodle has become negatively toted over the UK resulting in a shallow surface low moving across the country introducing some extensive wet weather

 

Edited July 13, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

Well, beyond the reliable few days, a number of possibilities emerging and I'm not confident of any of them to be honest!  

GFS legacy the pick, here T360:

But the uncertainty is much earlier than this, on the other hand the long range models are supportive of a warm/hot evolution into August, we will see....

Edit, the ECM T240 heading towards good times for summer weather enthusiasts:

This is what I'm now expecting to see more and more, the Azores ridge, and yaayyy!  that decent August I was on about the other day!

Just need the models to get their act together and support it!!??

Edited July 13, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Not a bad Ecm 12z operational, for the most part it looks warm, there is some rain indicated (especially further NW) once the largely fine weather this weekend and early to mid next week gives way and becoming a bit more humid again once we lose the northerly drift  but there also looks like being some more ridging at times bringing fine and sunny spells too, the best of these further s / se.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The mean after some unsettled conditions shows sign of hope towards later next weekend and beyond... Temps are very respectable, with some very warm conditions just to the South. Not looking for any positives or bigging it up... But that's the latest! 

The op was also quite a cool outlier with the mean trending warmer. 

Edited July 13, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

To me this Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks so much better longer term than the earlier 0z..at least for southern uk!!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Big daddy 49]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

A very interesting set of 12Z ensembles. I'd say that things might be starting to 'tip' toward a warmer outlook?

   

   

I also think it's fair to say, that the number of stonkers outweighs the number of stinkers?

Great!.Now if it wouldn't mind hanging around for the fist 10 or so days of August around Dorset as we will be down there then!. Weather please co-operate!..COYS.

[snowsummer]

ECM showing a lovely rainfest for my break at centre parcs next weekend. 3rd attempt at a 'summer break' this year. Looks like 3rd washout in a row. 

[Frosty.]

So many positives today, especially from the GEFS mean longer term which continues to show a warming trend, there's a chance of some really very warm / hot weather beyond next week..hope the current trend continues!

[Methuselah]

A rather messy set of 00Z ensembles, this morning; judging from the enormous amount of scatter evident, from July 23rd, any attempt at prediction looks like being rather fruitless---to say the least?

   

   

As the legendary Sherlock Holmes was wont to say...something's afoot?

Edited July 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

A warm up of some sort is certainly possible into the last week of the month, though trying to pin that down at this range is impossible! Could be a few days before we have a good idea of what to really expect.

We can say that it’ll be quiet for the next few days, unsettled between the middle of next week through the weekend....then potentially a fair bit warmer thereafter. 

[Frosty.]

Still some major heat potential late July on the GEFS 0z...

Edited July 14, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

The latest ECMWF NH-profiles are looking okay:

T+0:    

T+120: 

T+240: 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean certainly suggesting a warm up towards the last week of July ..

And the op is getting warm by day 8/9 too-

 

For sure this is outside the reliable but a trend that would be very positive if continued over the next 48 hours..

[h2005__uk__]

GEFS has been picking up on a hot end to July for several days now, as identified primarily by Karl.

Edited July 14, 2019 by h2005__uk__

[summer blizzard]

Both GFS and Euro this morning are in unison between days 4-10 on a more mobile period. Nothing really cool or especially wet but low pressure throwing fronts in the north and west especially.

[Methuselah]

06Z showing great potential at T+186:

   

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean just gets better and better, warmer and warmer!!!!

Edited July 14, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've been saying for a few days now the mean is heading in the right direction, and it's highlighted well again this morning... Towards next weekend any rain looks like being focused across the NW... with the South becoming more settled and increasingly warmer. At long last even the mean is going above the 10c upper air temps. 

Edited July 14, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Looking good. Looking very good. Just what the teleconnections ordered?

  

[knocker]

The progression of th EPS mean anomalies over the last five days shows a reasonable stability The main difference being more amplification in the eastern Atlantic and Europe, Thus we have the TPV in the western Arctic with associated troughs, and a secondary lobe NE Canada,flanking high pressure over Greenland, Thus still a strong upper flow exiting the north east seaboard across the Atlantic which starts to back a tad in the vicinity of the UK. This would suggest changeable weather subject to the day to day phasing of the different airmasses with a tendency, as is not uncommon in this type of pattern, for the south to benefit more from this. Worth noting that the source of much of tis air is quite away south so temps generally above average.

 

In the ext period there is less amplification (to be expected to some extent) and thus a flatter flow across the Atlantic and a continuation of the changeable weather, Last evening's NOAA not a million miles away from this

Satellite at 1045 UTC

Edited July 14, 2019 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

GFS is forecasting a reamplifaction of tropical westerlies in the Pacific which may be why the GEFS are suggesting FI joy.