Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The ECM op brings us more unsettled conditions later next week... Still not convinced by the extremity of that low just yet, so I await the mean.... Either way it shows an improvement in the later frames with hopefully a build of pressure from the SW. 

[Frosty.]

Pleasant end to the Ecm 12z operational following showery trough (s) for a few days with the azores ridge then building in strongly..it's not bad, we have a nice little anticyclonic spell coming up followed by troughs and ridges..temperatures close to average which translates to pleasant warmth at this time of year, especially further south and probably a bit humid at times too when there are heavy showers and thunderstorms around.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Singularity]

Overall, we have a picture building (being painted?) of a more unsettled spell lasting Tue or Wed until Fri or Sat, depending on how far north you look, and which model you examine.

Generally warmest and least rainy in the southeast - but I wonder if we could see further significant adjustments to the detail, as the models seem to be having a hard time resolving how much the remnants of tropical cyclone Barry will drive amplification to the jet stream, first across the U.S. next Tue-Wed and then downstream across the N. Atlantic & Europe over the following few days.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z once again there's considerable potential for a late July scorcher, the mean shows a warming trend..it's done this for several days now and can't be dismissed despite the timeframe..gotta stay positive!!

PS..it looks like tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is delayed..

Edited July 12, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

Uncertainty? yes.  But some guidance from the GFS and ECM, GFS first at T192 and T288, from both, FV3 first, legacy second:

But ECM T240 also looks good for the Azores ridge, good run this;

I still think the models are in a holding pattern, and they will eventually align with GloSsa5 and CFS to firm up on a hot or occasionally stormy second half to summer....

Edited July 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Decent end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, at least further south, indeed the south appears to largely escape any really unsettled weather and has the warmest of the conditions..as is usual in summer.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

At this juncture it does look like any troughing will not be locked in -acc to EC/EC mean..

Hopefully the signal to nudge the jet back north longer term will gather momentum.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Has I pointed out yesterday evening, I feel the ens are slowly but surely pointing in the right direction, bar a mid to late week blip... Below are last night's ens and also tonight's, which show gradual improvements in height rises. 

[summer blizzard]

The medium term outlook to day 8/9 is actually pretty unsettled. I remain wary of the GFS FI outlook given that the outlook is for minimal tropical forcing.

[knocker]

Outlook - High pressure will become influential over the next few days before succumbing to pressure from the Atlantic. But, although it will remain dry in most areas, because of the orientation and movement of the high cell, this does not mean wall to wall sunshine and very warm weather for all and there will be some marked regional variations.

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight.

The aforementioned high cell is nudging in from the west so a dry day for most but a lot of cloud around in eastern and northern regions, and even to some extent in the west, and this is reflected in the temps, particularly some coastal regions more effected by the northerly breeze/. In the areas of little cloud it will be quite warm The one caveat to the dry forecast is the possibility of a convergence zone down the spine of the north of England so there may well be a few showers here.

The showers will largely fizzle out this evening, albeit still the odd one or two around courtesy of a trough over central regions which will also ensure plenty of cloud here. Cloud will also tend to thicken up along eastern coastal regions.

Some marked regional variations again on Sunday with western regions dry, sunny and quite warm but still a fair amount of cloud in northern and eastern regions and this again will be reflected in the temps

The high cell is slowly nudged east over Sunday night and through Monday as the upper trough to the west becomes negatively tilted.  But still dry over the UK but once again some regional cloud and temps variations

On Tuesday the upper trough continues to swivel and on the surface a waving cold front will bring some showery outbreaks, with thunder in the mix, to NW and N regions. Elsewhere reaming dry and quite a warm day generally with temps a tad above average.

The front will tend to lose it's identity overnight Tuesday so the showery activity will fizzle out as it tracks south east so generally a dry start to the day on Wednesday with maybe a few odd showers lingering  but the upper trough is now aligned W > E and an occlusion tracking east bringing more frequent showers and more persistent rain to the NW later in the day.

[knocker]

We are now entering an area briefly covered in a couple of posts last evening.

Another trough has tracked east from Canada and this starts to phase with the main trough to the west and showery activity in the north on Thursday will be joined by more persistent rain in southern regions

This feature clears to the east by midday Friday and as the main upper trough continues to perambulate to the west the subtropical nudges north east ob Saturday. This is of course according to the gfs

[knocker]

The ecm has a band of rain associated with the occlusion traversing the country on Thursday with a showery day on Friday once it clears to the east, But by Saturday a new low associated with the previously mentioned new upper trough  tracks into England and Wales bringing with it some wet and windy weather.

[knocker]

Current satellite

[mb018538]

Starting to look very unsettled around next weekend now....plenty of wet weather to contend with for a few days at least. ECM is slow to push the low through as well.

[thestixx]

34 minutes ago, knocker said:

Current satellite

We'd be better off with a South Westerly than an anticyclone that's basically a mass of swirling cloud! Can't believe how poor the outlook is today and tomorrow with a high sat right over us! The devil is always in the detail isn't it.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, thestixx said:

We'd be better off with a South Westerly than an anticyclone that's basically a mass of swirling cloud! Can't believe how poor the outlook is today and tomorrow with a high sat right over us! The devil is always in the detail isn't it.

I really don’t understand why so many were looking forward to / bigging up this weekend, it was always a cloudy cool affair for the majority, another 30mins or so and we’ll lose the sunshine here after a beautiful start. The mid term outlook is now starting to look poor for many, low pressure that initially was models just to graze the north west now looks like being a feature for at least 3 or 4 days. 

[Methuselah]

This morning's 00Z GEFS ensembles are, to be honest, nowhere near as good as yesterday's 12Zs were; a myocardial infarct on the 23rd sees to that...

   

   

All of which will, no doubt, be erased from human consciousness come the 06Zs!

[Downpour]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I really don’t understand why so many were looking forward to / bigging up this weekend, it was always a cloudy cool affair for the majority, another 30mins or so and we’ll lose the sunshine here after a beautiful start. The mid term outlook is now starting to look poor for many, low pressure that initially was models just to graze the north west now looks like being a feature for at least 3 or 4 days. 

It seems to be bang average summer conditions to me. Dry and warm in the south this weekend. Some much needed rainfall midweek, a slow improvement through next weekend. That’s very typical for England, if you want wall to wall heat and drought, this is not the country for you. There has been almost no measurable rain here for a fortnight. It is welcome! 

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I really don’t understand why so many were looking forward to / bigging up this weekend, it was always a cloudy cool affair for the majority, another 30mins or so and we’ll lose the sunshine here after a beautiful start. The mid term outlook is now starting to look poor for many, low pressure that initially was models just to graze the north west now looks like being a feature for at least 3 or 4 days. 

I commented a few days ago that it wouldn’t be a good anticyclone due to the muck coming down from the eastern side. Looks disappointing for the majority now, with late next week rapidly becoming at risk of being a write off as the low dominates.

[Downpour]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I commented a few days ago that it wouldn’t be a good anticyclone due to the muck coming down from the eastern side. Looks disappointing for the majority now, with late next week rapidly becoming at risk of being a write off as the low dominates.

A write off? Really? Implied totals look fairly modest to me, to be honest. I could use more rain for my parched garden.

[Frosty.]

Still some hot GEFS 0z members for late July and the mean still warms up..nothing's changed!!

Edited July 13, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Still some hot GEFS 0z members for late July and the mean still warms up..nothing's changed!!

Yes Karl, plenty of warm summery weather to enjoy- sun - wed look mainly dry and warm with even manchester up at 22-23 degrees

Looks mainly dry and warm for the south , more changeable the further north ..

Longer term is still up in the air - EC a little less keen to bring the azores high back into play longer term ,waiting game for now to see how later in the month plays out..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

I really don’t understand why so many were looking forward to / bigging up this weekend, it was always a cloudy cool affair for the majority, another 30mins or so and we’ll lose the sunshine here after a beautiful start. The mid term outlook is now starting to look poor for many, low pressure that initially was models just to graze the north west now looks like being a feature for at least 3 or 4 days. 

I really don't understand why you are giving a misleading forecast!! What I am seeing and what most senior forecasters are stating is for plenty of warm sunny spells away from North facing coasts. A cloudy start on Sunday followed by warm sunny spells especially away from the East! Shower risk increases by Wednesday.....but it stays warm throughout!!! It says nothing about a cool and cloudy depressing affair for the majority! And folk calling a decent weekend with sunny spells is hardly bigging it up tbh. 

Edited July 13, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

A chance of something thundery, at least in the SE, Thursday night-Friday morning?

  

[danm]

19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I really don't understand why you are giving a misleading forecast!! What I am seeing and what most senior forecasters are stating is for plenty of warm sunny spells away from North facing coasts. A cloudy start on Sunday followed by warm sunny spells especially away from the East! Shower risk increases by Wednesday.....but it stays warm throughout!!! It says nothing about a cool and cloudy depressing affair for the majority! And folk calling a decent weekend with sunny spells is hardly bigging it up tbh. 

Yep, the last couple of weeks and the week ahead is typical British summer weather - some warm sunshine, some cloud, some rain (more further N/NW, less further S/SE), temperatures ranging from the high teens in the north to mid 20s in the south. You couldn’t get a more typically British summer weather pattern than that. 

Those expecting day after day of sparkling clear blue skies and temperatures in the high 20s/low 30s should move to the Med or reset their expectations. Ofcourse we do get that kind of weather here in the UK, but intermittently. 

The model output this morning could ofcourse be better, but it could also be far worse. I’m generally seeing fine weather until Wednesday when it turns a bit more unsettled, particularly further north. The south could escape with a little rain over a couple of days before fine and settled weather returns - again, standard British summer fayre.