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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If the 06Zs are anything to go by, a major cool-down at the very end of July now looks more likely?

Or a major warm-up!:shok:

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ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

Edited by Jon Snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Just having a gander at the CFS op.... Our trusted friend in times of uncertainty I think many will take what it's flagging up for later this month! Oh.... And still talk of hot spells in the south moving forward into August.... Source.... Confidential!!! Could we about to break our poor August run.....

Ps.... Suns just come out with some blue sky... First time in 6 days.... Things deffo looking up now.....

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cfs-0-312.png

cfs-0-330.png

cfs-0-354.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Based on what's happened since the heat started building to our south, in February (so, about 1% skill and 99% wishful thinking!) I'm hoping that the eventual emergence of deepish mid-Atlantic troughing will help to bring some real heat up here, come August...? To put it into something more technical, I hope we have an August like 1997!:oldgrin:

Bring on some TS remnants?:yahoo:

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just having a gander at the CFS op.... Our trusted friend in times of uncertainty I think many will take what it's flagging up for later this month! Oh.... And still talk of hot spells in the south moving forward into August.... Source.... Confidential!!! Could we about to break our poor August run.....

Have you been sleeping with the Metoffice Head Office cleaner again? 

Pleasant enough weekend ahead for many in the UK and Ireland - not hot by any means but sunny/warm will do for the time being! (Add a degree or two onto those charts)

90C838CA-902F-43CC-96F5-0305339348CA.thumb.png.c5b04a92bff98e3461d5c902523f47c9.pngECCD6616-CCF2-4BEB-A67E-244A928093ED.thumb.png.c1a94886874b986fe89c40a20e5592a4.png

7355FA91-7A61-4422-ABFE-5EC4E2E0431C.thumb.png.4840812c3f918ae499796ae7a4ef8148.png

 

Enjoy! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Have you been sleeping with the Metoffice Head Office cleaner again? 

Pleasant enough weekend ahead for many in the UK and Ireland - not hot by any means but sunny/warm will do for the time being! 

469730D8-7558-4E77-B437-53D5C927865C.thumb.png.2889e4e56fede1a0722c3b20c57fadfd.png8078AA13-97D8-496B-B1D6-91F18F1CA34F.thumb.png.65763124e70dd56ba8b7b7141866b289.png11AC1B71-EC6E-4853-AAF5-C9202E0179D1.thumb.png.8fe47db7a067988d4bc9a77c075b6944.pngD2FE20C5-B0A8-4073-89D9-190F0475684E.thumb.png.fee8023f38e2ee5eae6526c3651b6a6a.png

 

Enjoy! 

I never kiss and tell David.... Yes a very pleasent weekend coming up, not so sure the models have got a complete grip on takings for next week yet though.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Based on what's happened since the heat started building to our south, in February (so, about 1% skill and 99% wishful thinking!) I'm hoping that the eventual emergence of deepish mid-Atlantic troughing will help to bring some real heat up here, come August...? To put it into something more technical, I hope we have an August like 1997!:oldgrin:

Bring on some TS remnants?:yahoo:

dont you mean 1995 old chap?.. 1995 was a great hot sunny august...

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

dont you mean 1995 old chap?.. 1995 was a great hot sunny august...

It was the potential for hot and thundery weather I was thinking of, mushy...even up in the NW Highlands, 1997 was good for storms.:oldgood:

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

On topic please folks.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The ICON 12z looks good up to this point..so I'll stop it right there!

icon-0-51.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Not having Icons take on things... Look at the low pressure slap bang over us, compared to say... The Gfs 6z at the same time, which as low pressure to our North and clearing East! 

icon-0-180.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the ukmo 12h i'm sensing more of a NW / SE split once the high / ridge has collapsed with the lower heights to the NW meaning the coolest and most unsettled conditions for NW uk and the best of the fine and warmer spells for the S / SE with weak ridging  persisting across southern england  but nowhere would be immune from showers next week.

Edited by Jon Snow
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

GFS bringing a potent low across the UK next Friday - a real soaker that we haven't had for quite a while.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And by next Sunday, it's time for another ridge...:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS bringing a potent low across the UK next Friday - a real soaker that we haven't had for quite a while.

Yep. Just glad it’s a week away. There’s so much model disagreement at the moment!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yep. Just glad it’s a week away. There’s so much model disagreement at the moment!

Maybe we should just enjoy what's right in front of us..high pressure!

UW48-21.gif

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted (edited)

12z turns into a stunner....watch that line go way above anything else in the ensembles later though. Looks like a huge hot outlier.

Perfect NH profile:

image.thumb.png.799cb8ab88b67c7441d5cf87d4d6b1d3.png

Edited by mb018538
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z turns into a stunner....watch that line go way above anything else in the ensembles later though. Looks like a huge hot outlier.

Perfect NH profile:

image.thumb.png.799cb8ab88b67c7441d5cf87d4d6b1d3.png

Yes it could be an outlier of course- lets hope its a cold outlier

Next week looks showery and quite warm - after that, who knows ..

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Something a tad more thundery, perhaps?:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

It's a good run, this one!

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The gfs is developing an upper trough north of the Great Lakes at the moment and by 1500 Monday it is over NE North America

1759594188_mon15.thumb.png.3b12ae3960f309cb218ef341a24effae.png

It then tracks east and phases with our upper low on Weds  before impacting the UK on Friday

1563397200-y8lp0m3QXqE.thumb.png.b5ef17d971c0743ae0b5278f673418e5.png1563526800-Ha6iMg2Od7s.thumb.png.ebc164a0dd6ecbd8ccb5ebe0842643e0.pngindex.thumb.png.679167bd6f5238259643175252ff99c4.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

 it's a good run, this one!

Agreed, much more azores high friendly, there were quite a few 6z members looking like the 12z operational so hopefully the same applies to the GEFS 12z..much better than the 6z operational !!!

12_360_mslp500.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Once again, the ensembles are nae bad; however, the op is quite definitely on the warmer end of the pack...

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Though, that having been said, the mean's no' bad, either!:yahoo:

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Today was forecast to be 21c here, and that was from a forecast only 48 hours ago; it actually reached 25c mid-after. So why take notice of charts 7 days in advance? Just saying

Now into 3rd week of sun and warmth (imby) - decent Summer building.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM also going very unsettled for the end of next week/next weekend....we may have a bit of low pressure to see off in a weeks time. Hopefully an improvement after.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The ecm also develops the trough north of the great Lakes and tracks it east to be absorbed by the main upper low to our west portending a wet and possibly windy end to next week

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-3364800.thumb.png.38f6f3860ad8a7d554edc23961717a70.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-3451200.thumb.png.9f46cbc55289c2b2c017e37c5b00587b.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-3537600.thumb.png.a6255ff75370b22d08fd01297c94a616.png

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