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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Some of those GEFS 12z perturbations have the WOW factor about them..yet again!!!..the mean trends warmer!!!!!!!!!!!!??

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    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Now we are within the period of interest re: upper air/surface air, we can see some charts showing how, between 850hpa and 1000hpa,  a layer of cold air has worked its way into the North Sea and been

    Just wanted to send a 'thank you' to several kind members who have sent lovely supporting messages over the last 10 days. It has been very much appreciated ? So to keep on topic, I had bette

    Sorry, but this does just look like a bear having a poo doesn't it?  Or is it just me? ECM T192 drags the heat close to our shores...

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    52 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I'm on the cusp of thinking England might win the cricket world cup...?

     

    Well Karl,it looks from ECM at T72, the weather isn't going to stop them!  Glorious day for the final.

    image.thumb.jpg.2de75ac02d60ab0b215deee5e777e597.jpg

    Come on England!

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    I've been following the low for next week with interest for a few days now as I'd ideally like a more or less dry day next Thursday (North London). What's the chances it is weak enough to not cause too many problems? Perhaps the azores high may nudge in? Temps look reasonable at least but a dry day would be the icing on the cake! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The GEFS 12Z ensembles suggest plenty of interest, post July 21st. Though I wouldn't stake my house on the outcome; there is simply too much scatter.

    t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

    prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

    Though the 2m temps show far less variation than the 850s do, so maybe it's sunshine amounts that are making the difference...Who knows?:search:

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Maximum temperatures for the coming weekend

    Saturday

    arpegeuk-41-51-0.png?11-18

    Hardly a surprising situation given the wind is coming from the north so areas close to the north sea are cooler, mid twenties across southern and western areas.

    Sunday

    arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?11-18

    Warmth more widespread as the high is right over us so just light and variable winds.

    Not exactly earth shattering but, dry with good sunny spells and pleasantly warm is a fine outlook for any weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, Big daddy 49 said:

    My fellow Spur,what is an anti cyclone?.I'm a novice you understand!.COYS!.

    This is a weather system with a high barometric pressure at its centre. If the Northern hemisphere, then air rotates around it in a clockwise role. If in the southern hemisphere then it rotates around in an anticlockwise direction. Basically there are associated with fine settled conditions most of the time... The higher the pressure the less any rainfall and cloud amounts.. Sometimes there can be cloudy anticyclonic gloom.... Hope this helps. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, Big daddy 49 said:

    My fellow Spur,what is an anti cyclone?.I'm a novice you understand!.COYS!.

    Hi mate! I hope I've copied the url for a MetO video explaining how to read synoptic charts. Here goes: 

    Hope it helps, BD49.:oldgood:

    COYS!

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Not surprisingly the ecm is still indicating the pattern transition to energy running east away to the south as another ridge/high cell is established to the north. This initially involves the Atlantic trough faltering and becoming negatively tilted against the ridge.

    jet.thumb.png.508280b4e5d4adb909dfd2ef4205e3ca.png

    ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3278400.thumb.png.0c7618943a05c1bcfd62ca655049cb21.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3364800.thumb.png.061946d7f553c7f35414ac9c636cca50.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3451200.thumb.png.6d7e896e2a71003fdf2a66bacf6fc297.png

    The consequence of this for the UK is a more  changeable and showery regime to set in during the middle of next week

    1220811182_t120s.thumb.png.7f26757abc6739f3c1f4185935040dd9.png1617175111_t144s.thumb.png.dc68299695e847ee0c950a6f4970813e.png1689808370_t168s.thumb.png.4fc5a0f228c97a68ca53b4b2c7f260bb.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Best to not mention tonight’s ecm 12z run....blows up a load more northern blocking. Looks like models are struggling big time next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the Ecm 12z operational there's an increasingly spliffing weekend to come as high pressure builds in, the main thing about this run...at least it won't be cool!!!!! The 850's look respectable so any sunshine it's going to be warm!!..there's an increasing risk of showers / thunderstorms next week with increasing humidity again, at least the next few days will feel fresher compared to recently!!?

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    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Ecm does show Northern blocking, but that doesn't mean its ruins a UK summer!!! It's also an interesting finish with much warmer conditions pushing up from the South... 

    ECM1-144.gif

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    ECM0-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Best to not mention tonight’s ecm 12z run....blows up a load more northern blocking. Looks like models are struggling big time next week.

    Well i guess its all about opinions - i actually like the run, its generally warm and possibly thundery at times, and ends with warmer air still wafting up from good old Espana.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    It’s not a terrible run at all - but very different again from the 00z. I was more hinting at the uncertainty rather than it being a stinker. Looks fairly warm towards day 9/10. Hopefully something good will start appearing towards the end of July to tie in with the family holiday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    In the light of the GloSea5 output for August and beyond, I have looked at the last 8 CFS runs for August, here they are:

    image.thumb.jpg.09cc24ce9ed6236edc519df7b1776ada.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f836bb4387c37c0d419322cdd29724d8.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.61026330bb731ace474c5d8e1be7fbbe.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.eeddfa65c94d1e0f58f047c5ea2c544e.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.5a86c0e042dca78015a9f267c3866a5d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.de1badbf24e36c468ce7a4c44862ff5b.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.90355fdb45272eab3602f610016b72c3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7edec8a9e17dbcda5ec188b0cc79c882.jpg

    CFS always needs to be considered probabilistically, one run won't do, most of these show a high pressure dominated August, one or two failing to play ball.  Consistent with probabilities from the GloSea5 output I would suggest...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Here is the mean.... Little change... Low pressure mainly to the NW....its also a warm run, especially towards the end... Repeat of early June!???   Are you having a laugh. 

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    EDM0-240.gif

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    ??Evening All! Looks like a settled spell weekend and early next week, , then it becomes changeable to unsettled ,ecm thundery ,gfs Atlantic influence. ,The schools break up next week, usually the nod for the fountains to turn on!!! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Preety decent Ecm 12z ensemble mean, increasingly fine weekend and early next week then pressure falls a bit to the NW with increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms and it's a very slack pressure pattern meaning any changes are sloooow, temperatures look generally warm, especially further south and humidity levels rise again during next week following a slightly fresher feeling pleasantly warm few days ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Here is the mean.... Little change... Low pressure mainly to the NW....its also a warm run, especially towards the end... Repeat of early June!???   Are you having a laugh. 

    EDM1-96.gif

    EDM1-120.gif

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    Aye, Matt...IMO, high-latitude blocking is like a negative NAO, in that it receives far more attention than it's due? Except on those rare occasions when it does deliver, of course!:search:

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Aye, Matt...IMO, high-latitude blocking is like a negative NAO, in that it receives far more attention than it's due? Except on those rare occasions when it does deliver, of course!:search:

    What I will say is HLB in summer won't guarantee a washout, in the same instance that an SSW won't guarantee a very cold period! Not so sure about the NAO... obviously when it plumits we have a weaker than normal pressure, which would entail winds more likely to be from the E/NE. Then perhaps the weaker more meandering jet leading to less in the way of Atlantic systems and Storms. Hopefully the NAO will be very negative come winter, but it's quite possible right now that the NAO being negative could be leading to a less active jet... Its one possibility of many. 

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    What I will say is HLB in summer won't guarantee a washout, in the same instance that an SSW won't guarantee a very cold period! Not so sure about the NAO... obviously when it plumits we have a weaker than normal pressure, which would entail winds more likely to be from the E/NE. Then perhaps the weaker more meandering jet leading to less in the way of Atlantic systems and Storms. Hopefully the NAO will be very negative come winter, but it's quite possible right now that the NAO being negative could be leading to a less active jet... Its one possibility of many. 

    I’ve wished for this so many times....and like clockwork it re appears stronger than ever. Just reminds me of Mickey chopping up those broomsticks in Fantasia, then thousands more appear!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Slow and suttle signs of a slight pressure increase after a dip from the ensembles.... Don't shoot me down for this... Its slow but it maybe heading in the right direction longer term. 

    graphe_ens3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I’ve wished for this so many times....and like clockwork it re appears stronger than ever. Just reminds me of Mickey chopping up those broomsticks in Fantasia, then thousands more appear!

    Sooner or later we will get lucky mate... So they keep telling me... ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    37 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    What I will say is HLB in summer won't guarantee a washout, in the same instance that an SSW won't guarantee a very cold period! Not so sure about the NAO... obviously when it plumits we have a weaker than normal pressure, which would entail winds more likely to be from the E/NE. Then perhaps the weaker more meandering jet leading to less in the way of Atlantic systems and Storms. Hopefully the NAO will be very negative come winter, but it's quite possible right now that the NAO being negative could be leading to a less active jet... Its one possibility of many. 

    But that's just the synoptic pattern, Matt -- from which the NAO (along with any number of other numerical indices) can be easily observed, just by looking? Don't allow yourself to be bamboozled by the use of acronym-like abbreviations; being a form of shorthand, they'll blind you to so much other information weather-charts possess...?:oldgood:

    In the meantime, my cat's telling me to go to bed. Night all!:oldgrin:

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    2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

    This is a weather system with a high barometric pressure at its centre. If the Northern hemisphere, then air rotates around it in a clockwise role. If in the southern hemisphere then it rotates around in an anticlockwise direction. Basically there are associated with fine settled conditions most of the time... The higher the pressure the less any rainfall and cloud amounts.. Sometimes there can be cloudy anticyclonic gloom.... Hope this helps. 

    Cheers!

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    Message added by Paul

    This thread = Models, models and more models
    Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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