Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Frosty.]

Decent ukmo 12h, especially when a nice juicy area of high pressure builds in for the weekend / early next week..and could the azores ridge build in again post T+144?.maybe link up with weak heights to the north.....hopefully!...I'm peddling optimism like Boris Johnson!!!

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jon Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

9 hours ago, mb018538 said:

NAO is favoured to tank yet again too. 


 

Its never gone above neutral in the first place TBH. A -NAO doesn't always mean cold and rain though in summer, you could get a tropical continental flow if its a bit East based which is a fairly warm airmass in summer.

[Methuselah]

12Z looks okay for next Tuesday:                                                                                                        

Can't say as I'm bothered by the 'value' of the NAO; I find that the weather charts contain much more useful information...

[Frosty.]

Looking at the 12z output so far, the idea is that the showers will become fewer in number once we hit the weekend as a ridge of high pressure / high pressure cell builds in for a few days bringing a window of largely fine and warm weather for sat / sun / mon..perhaps longer further southeast..indeed the next few days don't indicate many showers across the south / southeast at all..the main risk is further n / ne !!!!!!!. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Being as the GEM hasn't been mentioned... Here goes... Its a cracker, and it keeps low pressure we'll to the NW. lots of warm and settled conditions with this little gem. 

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Being as the GEM hasn't been mentioned.... 

I was gonna mention it Matt but I thought I would give someone else a chance seeing as I have hijacked the model discussion quite a lot today.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mr Frost]

Well after the joy of the brief plume at the end of June (glorious four days with highs of 25/26c and fantastic thunderstorms) it has all been a bit...meh.

When you see the words useable and average mentioned lots in here you know it’s time to take a wee break from model watching if you are chasing heat/thunderstorms! 

It has been very average but not very useable here for about a week now (weekend just past was decent)  - patiently waiting for some heat to build but I can’t see much hope of this in the short term. (I know it has been lovely down South for quite a while now with temperatures in the mid 20’s - not jealous at all...)

This weekend looks nice with 21c and plenty of sunshine but I am looking for 25c + with a risk of some intense thunderstorms - really should just book a flight to Central Italy or the Adriatic Sea.

This from the latest GFS is what I would like to see but with the heat MUCH further North - really desperate to see another plume! 

Anyways it is only 10th July so plenty of time for proper heat to arrive. (Pretty sure I had said the same about snow in Winter and it never really did arrive. )

Special thanks to @Jon Snow @Ed Stone and @Mattwolves (to name a few) for posting on a daily basis during this pretty boring time for model/chart viewing. 

Have a good night all.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Frosty.]

There are again plenty of very warm / hot members showing during late July  (the final third) on the GEFS 12z..the mean shows a warming trend longer term!!

PS..thanks Mr Frost

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

The ecm has some significant amplification in the eastern Atlantic between Friday and Sunday midday. along with some cold air plunging south over Europe courtesy of the vortex lobe and trough. Thus a pretty good weekend for the UK with the usual caveats vis eastern coastal regions in this sort of pattern

But continuous pressure from the Atlantic trough splits the ridge as it phases with it's European counterpart which looks suspiciously like some NB reinforcement. Thus more unsettled weather is introduced by midweek

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows an improving picture as we head into the weekend as high pressure builds in across the uk from the west, still a risk of showers forming down the spine of the uk on saturday but not as intense as friday but sunday looks the best day of the weekend and monday probably equal or slightly better than sunday.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

This afternoons output looks to support ridging into the UK from the Azores about T144.  But there looks like considerable uncertainty post that point, GEM looks the pick at T240, GFS legacy also promising, but ECM rather messy, and GFS rather uninspiring also.  Won't post charts as others have already posted most of them.  

[Frosty.]

Not a bad T+240 Ecm 12z operational further west and north, hopefully that ridge would nudge eastwards subsequently!!

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

The 12Z GEFS ensembles are nae too bad, though the 850s do fall off a cliff, right at the end.

   

   

Though, as with yesterday's incipient superplume, there's only a vanishingly small chance of it verifying!   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've gorra feeling in me water this evening... No, its not a water infection!! Ecm is moving this low pressure further SE, last nights run for the same time was slap bang over us, it also looked more Intense. I'm expecting a good mean later. 

[Mike Poole]

Let's see what the ECM ensembles say about things.  

For perspective, here's the GEFS mean at T240:

Suggestive of an Azores ridge not supported by all members.

ECM:

This looks an odd chart to me, highlighting the uncertainty at this range, hopefully things should become clearer on the operational runs in a couple of days.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the mean folks... It certainly doesn't paint the unsettled spell the op was showing yesterday... We seem to be in the twilight zone with this mean. Basically it sort of shows the uncertainty in the forecast moving forward... But the idea of much more unsettled from the op the other day seems to be declining. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here are the ensembles from last night and tonight, I feel its slowly bit surely pointing to an improving picture moving forward. 

[mb018538]

Looks ok, but with the mean below 1015mb and not even the top ensemble members touching 1020mb, it’s not going to be wall to wall sunshine. Expect some unsettled weather, though no washout like June it would seem. Still lots of uncertainty after the middle of next week, all models varying a fair bit still.

[knocker]

Outlook - The influence of the quite complex trough will slowly wane over the next couple of days as the subtropical high amplifies over the UK

The North Atlantic 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight

A cloudy start in most areas this morning with still a lot of showers around associated with the old occlusion. These will tend to dissipate this morning but only to be quite quickly followed by another belt of showery rain associated with the shallow wave and associated occlusion which is slowly traversing the country. These could well be quite intense in places with thunder in the mix later for north east Scotland

The showers will mainly clear this evening as the wave moves into the North Sea but some may linger over Scotland courtesy if the trailing fronts,

By tomorrow the ridge is starting to build in the west as the wave continues to edge east so a generally sunny day with just a few showers but these will develop in the northern and eastern regions in the now northerly flow.during the afternoon.

By Saturday the amplification is well underway so essentially a dry and sunny day but there is a convergence zone running down the spine of the country in the north so some showers here and a tad cloudy and cooler downs eastern coastal regions.

The high cell is in situ over Sunday and Monday so dry with just the odd shower around but the next AAtlantic trough is starting to take closer order so perhaps some showery rain into western regions during Monday.

Edited July 11, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the gfs the upper trough in the Atlantic continues to track east so by midweek low pressure has replaced the high cell and more changeable and showery weather is back on the table. The detail of all of this yet to be finalised,

Edited July 11, 2019 by knocker

[Guest]

Definite downward trend in the last few gfs runs that the middle of next week onwards becomes more unsettled with pressure falling away from the north west and showery rain, cooler temps and cloud becoming more widespread even in the south. UKMO at 144hrs is also becoming more unsettled, in fact the sort of little feature it produce could be accompanied by a fair amount of rain.

 Certainly seems like Plume watch is over for now unfortunately

[Djdazzle]

Watch the models swing back later Chris. Still a week away so lots can change.

[mb018538]

ECM continues us on our merry voyage of nothingness today - neither high nor low pressure really in charge towards next weekend. Temperatures around average. No signs of any prolonged settled or very warm weather at the moment.

Quite a uniform set of 850 ensembles too, sticking very close to the average for the next 10 days:

[knocker]

The ecm does not follow the gfs in as much as the ridge is much more resilient next week resulting in the approaching trough disrupting and making little eastward headway. Still some showery unsettled weather with a pattern that would again adversely effect eastern regions. Still to be resolved.

[Methuselah]

Good morning, peeps. This morning's 00Z is nae bad; The 21st (or thereabouts) could be the start of something rather spiffing?

Anywho...on to the ensembles:

  

 

Which do, I think, still suggest a that a pattern of some sort might eventually take-hold -- I only hope that, if one does, it'll be a favourable one!