Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z is not a bad run out to day 8 with a bit of cloud and shower risk but mainly dry. After day 8, the Atlantic arrives.

[Methuselah]

And another reasonable set of GEFS ensembles. Even a minuscule chance of a mini-plume (thundery rather than hot) out there in lala land?

  

  

Edited July 5, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

Just had a look through the GEFS 12z and it's a really mixed bag although temperatures are generally average and occasionally on the warm side of average  across southern uk, cool at times across scotland, especially the northern half / third. There is some ridging, even a chance of high pressure building in but on the other hand there's showery troughs and even a chance  of Atlantic lows pushing east but the mean suggests to me more of a N / S split longer term with the best chances of warmer settled spells further south / southeast which is normal in summer, in this case mid summer.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational i 'm seeing plenty of ridging bringing a lot of fine weather and following a slight dip in temperatures this weekend it again warms up quickly from tuesday next week but then pressure falls slightly around midweek with an increasing chance of showers for a time before ridging builds in again from the west, the stronger ridging is further west, still a chance of showers further east and some cool air spilling south into scotland..a mixed bag overall but not bad for the time of year..in my opinion!

Edited July 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational i 'm seeing plenty of ridging bringing a lot of fine weather and following a slight dip in temperatures this weekend it again warms up quickly from tuesday next week but then pressure falls slightly around midweek with an increasing chance of showers for a time before ridging builds in again from the west.

Its not bad Karl, it still looks a bit slack for most of the time, one thing for sure its a marked improvement on a few weeks ago... Let's see what the mean says. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Can't complain with the ECM mean folks... Looks a good un!! Time for a Barby and beer me thinks... Have a great evening good peeps..

[Frosty.]

Agreed Matt, I've seen much worse..most of June being one example!...at least for southern uk there's plenty of decent summer weather to come judging by today's output.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Man With Beard]

Morning all... Though the pressure charts look tame for next week, I suspect there may be some annoying fronts embedded within the pattern. It looks rather hit and miss to me for rain between next Monday and Friday, I'm afraid, except maybe in the south west where it may be another excellent week. 

[Polar Maritime]

Mornin, Agree there MWB.. Here's some Net-wx mr daily snapshots fir Tue/Wed/Thur/Fri. With Monday being the better day of the week.

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Still with real differences as well during next week, the ECM for instance would probably deliver more sunshine and higher temperatures during the middle of the week thanks to the stronger area of high pressure.

As said, the south looks good with some kind of line drawn by a waving weather front as to where the cloudier and cooler conditions are.

[Methuselah]

GEFS 00Z ensembles paint a somewhat 'benign' picture, with plenty of unexceptional warmth throughout:

  

And, I'm sure the expected rainfall would be welcome by some:

  

[danm]

As others have said, the pressure pattern next week is looking increasingly slack compared to the output a couple of days ago. Still likely to be plenty of fine and pleasantly warm weather around, but there will also be a few showers and probably random areas of cloud milling around at times, which will be difficult to forecast. 

The operationals show that by next weekend pressure could rise further, so could warm up more by then and kill off the showers for most.

Edited July 6, 2019 by danm

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone 
Just been having a look at the month ahead on the ole CFS, and again its showing pretty fine, settled and summery weather, as the high pressure is anchored more or less over the top of us! 
The final chart from the 27th of July to the 2nd of August looks like we 'could' start dragging in air from the south or the south east! 
Now I know that these are ultra low resolution charts, but as a general guide, I'd say that the out look doesn't look too bad at all if you want fine settled and summery conditions. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean looks decent again with plenty of azores ridging, it's not fine all the time by any means but I've seen much worse..pretty similar to yesterday, actually, if anything it's  slightly better!

Edited July 6, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You took the words right out my mouth Karl... A very similar ECM mean to yesterday.. Still the op and the mean showing little difference with both temperatures and pressure... Not all bad at all. 

[Methuselah]

T+213 and things are nae looking bad...

  

[Frosty.]

There's a lot to like about the Gfs 6z operational with plenty of azores ridging and warm, sometimes very warm weather..

[Mike Poole]

I'm feeling fairly comfortable about the medium term trend this morning, it does look as though next week will be a little less settled, but by T240, things look to improve significantly on the GEM:

ECM makes more of the low in the Atlantic:

GFS 6z (both of them) at T234 for comparison:

Jet stream, if one can be identified, looks well to the north, looking good for the period from St Swithens day (15th) onwards, I would suggest.

And it is often around this time of year that the track of the jet stream can set a trend for the rest of summer.

 

Edited July 6, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Let's all hope you're right, Mike. T+384, and we're still in a warmish no-man's-land!

 

[Earthshine]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Let's all hope you're right, Mike. T+384, and we're still in a warmish no-man's-land!

 

Potentially showery in the south with that chart Ed?  Regardless this current spell of clement weather has been thoroughly enjoyable.  Temperatures in the low 70s makes outdoor activities possible and there's been bags of sunshine here recently.

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the GEFS 6z mean, there's plenty of azores ridging at times, more than yesterday's equivalent run..less troughy, more ridgy and warmer..compliments the operational!

[Methuselah]

GEFS 06Z ensembles follow a similar trend to the last lot: some sun, some rain, and little in the way of strong winds; daily maxes mostly between 22 and 25C.

  

  

Maybe some heavy thundery showers, Thursday & Friday, too?

[northwestsnow]

As pointed out well its a decent outlook  , generally settled with a few showery days next week.

Then another ridge from the Azores settling things down for the weekend.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cracking ending from the Icon 12z, temperature on the up as well.. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO out to day 6 showing a build of pressure from the SW.. looks like a very decent weekend is about to set up. 

Edited July 6, 2019 by Mattwolves