Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Mike Poole]

So after a brief break from me, what are the prospects for the second half of summer?  ECM 12z op, supported by UKMO and GEM, seems to offer the best guidance, Here T144 and T240:

Takes us to mid July with decent but not exceptional summer weather.

I was taken by a comment in the UKMO contingency planners forecast that SSTs favour warmer temperatures, but not as much as last year.  Here current SST anomaly:

Compare to a month ago:

Warm anomaly around UK persists now, but the cold anomaly SW of Iceland has all but gone.  Compare July last year:

Both anomalies were strong....I think what this is saying is that all other things being equal, to the limited extent that SSTs affect the jet stream, they are less likely to promote a prolonged  SW-NE jet stream this year than last year.   

Meanwhile, AAM bubbling along a neutral line before rising in the second half of July according to CFS model:

If I understand this correctly (and I may not! - AAM knowledge is a work in progress!)  we can get a decent ridge into the UK with lower AAM in July than earlier in the year, so if we see a settled spell now, it might improve even further as we go into late July and August.  We will see. 

Edited July 4, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I've seen worse..I endured that horrific June..I've seen much worse!!!

[damianslaw]

Not commenting much on the models at present - because not much to talk about. All very benign standard summer fayre, very decent useable weather, never too hot or cool, fresh at times in the north, mostly dry overall. 

As we move into 'high summer' no real signals, the azores high whilst influential at the moment and for the foreseeable doesn't seem to have a major forcing influence, atlantic continues to stir, and in an average year often comes alive later in July.

[Djdazzle]

I think we will have a better idea in a week or so where July may be heading. As some have said. no real signals either way.

Just hoping that our 16 year wait for a decent August comes to an end this year. It’s been average at best.

[ChezWeather]

Much better GFS at +240

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone 
Now I know that this is the CFS, and it hasn't been updated since Wednesday, but IF it's right, then July does look too bad a month summer wise, with high pressure anchored either very close to of right over us here in the UK. 
In other words it looks as if summer 2019 is, at long last carrying on quite nicely. 

[danm]

All of the big 3 this morning are good for next week and into next weekend if you like warm, settled, sunny weather. Pressure looks a little slack at times so we could see one or two showers pop up, but from all 3 it’s almost completely high pressure dominated. Can’t complain. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by danm

[Methuselah]

This morning's 00Z looks really rather spiffing, old beans; could be great for haymaking?

  

  

And, for other bucolic pursuits: 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Can't  complain about the ECM mean again, if anything a slight improvement in temperatures moving forward... Looking good to day 10.

[Frosty.]

I agree, the Ecm 0z ensemble mean is an upgrade compared to yesterday and that wasn't too shabby either..hope the upgrades continue!!

Edited July 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

A very nice 06Z for next Wednesday: things look like staying fine and warm...

  

[Methuselah]

And, quite a nice set of ensembles too; 850s mostly between 5 and 10C will do me fine!

  

  

Also, there being quite few rain-spikes, serious water-shortages look rather unlikely...?

[Frosty.]

Here's a few good charts from the GEFS 6z longer term..shameless cherry picking..face..bovvered !!.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Singularity]

With a modest Nino standing wave competing against weakly enhanced Indian Ocean tropical thunderstorms, and a deficit of cold air at the high latitudes, there's not a lot driving our weather next week, and this really shows in the NWP modelling.

Shallow troughs and ridges loosely arranged into the climatological 'norm' which includes some ridging of the subtropical high across the UK. This weak enough that shallow lows may cut through from time to time.

It may be some of the 'slackest' output I've ever witnessed. Temperature variations from average largely determined by cloud and wind patterns right down to the local scale, such as sea breezes and associated low-level convergence lines (leading to bands of cloud, typically narrow). Generally though (as an average across the period), tending to be a bit below normal by night and above by day.

Could be better if you like it hot and sunny, could be worse if you don't like it autumnal at this time of year.

[danm]

35 minutes ago, Singularity said:

With a modest Nino standing wave competing against weakly enhanced Indian Ocean tropical thunderstorms, and a deficit of cold air at the high latitudes, there's not a lot driving our weather next week, and this really shows in the NWP modelling.

Shallow troughs and ridges loosely arranged into the climatological 'norm' which includes some ridging of the subtropical high across the UK. This weak enough that shallow lows may cut through from time to time.

It may be some of the 'slackest' output I've ever witnessed. Temperature variations from average largely determined by cloud and wind patterns right down to the local scale, such as sea breezes and associated low-level convergence lines (leading to bands of cloud, typically narrow). Generally though (as an average across the period), tending to be a bit below normal by night and above by day.

Could be better if you like it hot and sunny, could be worse if you don't like it autumnal at this time of year.

I think that will suit many of us. Average at this time of year is generally pretty good (24c here), and as we’ve seen this week, we can get short notice upgrades to temperatures with subtle shifts in wind direction and position of ridges (27c/28c currently whereas earlier forecasts had us at 23/24c). 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Has singularity pointed out so well, not alot driving our weather in the coming days... We have quite a slack pressure flow this would entail the weather stays rather benign for most of the time, perhaps some showers around mid week period. But I'm seeing signs from the Icon 12z that pressure is slowly but surely Increasing again by the end of next week, and more importantly next weekend... At this stage we should also start to see a temperature increase... Not all bad tbh. 

[Gael_Force]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not a lot driving our weather in the coming days.

... nor, according to the ECM 6 week run,  the weeks to follow. Unusual to see such a blank canvas from wk2 onwards.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/07/04/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom.html

[feb1991blizzard]

6z GEFS suggests another bout of wetness coming up. thought it wouldn't be quite that bad tbh, i wonder if that is just a rogue suite.

 

[Methuselah]

Could we be in for a stonking 2-weeks' weather?

  

[Frosty.]

My take on the 12z output so far, it's a mixture of ridges and showery troughs so not settled but not particularly unsettled either and temperatures around average which means the south in particular would be feeling warm into the low 20's celsius and under any decent ridging and more sunshine, it would be warmer still, again more so further s / se where mid 20's c would occur at times.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The GFS legacy looks so much better than the new one... High pressure is much more dominating and keeps low pressure to the NW. Where as the new one puts it over us... Once again this model as issues, when the 2 versions are completely at loggerheads with one another. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by Mattwolves

[h2005__uk__]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could we be in for a stonking 2-weeks' weather?

  

Wouldn't that initiate a plume with the low to the west of us like that?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

My take on the 12z output so far, it's a mixture of ridges and showery troughs so not settled but not particularly unsettled either and temperature around average which means the south in particular would be feeling warm and under any decent ridging and more sunshine, it would be warmer still, again more so further s / se.

Pick one Karl... It has to be settled, or unsettled.. A big difference from both models again.. Which one is your money on mate? 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Which one is your money on mate? 

I'm skint

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm skint

I'm always skint, Karl...but I just blame it on high-latitude blocking!

Edited July 5, 2019 by Ed Stone