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Paul

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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06Z not looking too shabby at T+183.:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z not looking too shabby at T+183.:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Yep cracking 6z, especially for the south. High pressure dominated throughout next week. Only the NW sees low pressure encroaching, and even that is only by the weekend. 

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The GEFS 6z mean looks warm and ridgy next week, that's probably a good way of describing it!👍🌞

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After a decent start to next week, the EC clusters suggesting a trough to the east is a possibility towards the end of next week (clusters 1, 3 and to some extent 4) - would introduce a temporary N Sea influence again. The op cluster is the most settled for the whole of the UK at this point, though not a cert for dry weather everywhere.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019070400_168.

A big improvement by the weekend, with clusters 1 and 2 looking particularly summery

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019070400_240.

After that a slightly strange evolution to these T300 charts, which are not particularly convincing in either a settled or unsettled way. I'd guess the absence of negative anomalies over France would suggest that southern parts of the UK may continue with good conditions (it would be the fourth consecutive week of settled weather there if so), whilst northern parts would be in the familiar in-between zone, not knowing with certainty until much nearer T0.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019070400_300.

 

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019070400_300.

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The only way I can describe the current output from the models is incredibly benign and entirely usable. There's been some beautiful weather and after a cloudier, cooler blip (typically over the weekend) it looks like a repeat performance next week with a weak area of high pressure building in and temps in the south increasing from the high teens to possibly mid twenties by Thursday/Friday next week.

Practically speaking its almost perfect, however the weather enthusiast in me says 'Bore-off, can we please get some heat and especially some proper TS activity thrown in'

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Good summary again from MWB, looking at the ECM mean and ensembles, yet again we have them neck and neck in the race to settled conditions 😉pretty unusual to see the mean and op on exactly the same page. Pressure looks good as well. No complaints from me, but do you ever hear me complain! 😂

graphe_ens3 (2).png

graphe_ens3 (3).png

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Icon bringing a good deal of settled Conditions, especially at first, low pressure to the North could bring a blip by next Wednesday/Thursday. High pressure should start to influence things again by the end of the week into next weekend... The far NW however could remain more troubled with more unsettled conditions at times... Perhaps a N/S split starting to shape up as we go further ahead. 

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Still looking like settled rather than unsettled up to 144 hours with weak high pressure holding on. Very usable weather - today has been great, 25c and sunny all day. I’d take a summer of that, doesn’t have to be in the 80s/90s F to count as good.

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Gem 12z, there could be a link up between heights to the N / NE and the azores making for a largely fine warm period for most of next week following a slightly cooler and for some, cloudier blip this weekend...not a bad finish either!👍

gem-0-120.png

gem-0-144.png

gem-0-240.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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UKMO only goes out to Wednesday but shows a fantastic start to the week with high pressure dominating. The low to our north west starts to drift further SE by Wednesday to leave us with more of a N/S split. If the UKMO follows the ECM and GFS post Wednesday it should hopefully start to rebuild heights further north too by the end of the working week. 

950ECE70-38F3-418D-AA62-CB9C545899C8.thumb.png.9bb590f7dba992d22420a86a8e924382.png

BE334741-D0CD-494F-A630-DD8CCEB98B05.thumb.png.43e3d98ec1d57ba1d25f6ccfa162db2e.png

9D139939-C5DE-4E0C-A38D-4D6774D39B72.thumb.png.794b28af517768dd4f2bb3ce89cb96f9.png

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Posted (edited)

GFS also looks largely fine next week but starts becoming low pressure dominated by next Sunday. That is miles off though. 

4077B30C-C664-452E-856B-F4D522FFC64F.thumb.png.b2fa2c433c47bc1f4a5fa0dcb78741db.png

8FB9B7A4-8D0E-42A5-BFBE-0AA20DB22856.thumb.png.a784fd7e2343146296e4b966537d5f10.png

D09B8B9D-803F-469E-A753-0EBEB6606B38.thumb.png.0399963bd816945595bc124e29b53359.png

E2F5D7C1-E152-4978-837D-BB52D0D1EE4E.thumb.png.d061cc3a1bc6e6fb18f07050d0d63e2e.png

73EDE65E-9DFB-4E49-8176-A9DE9CCC1A62.thumb.png.7d121c60ace0e608cf717aaea8ac4a11.png

42D61C2C-8001-42F7-A9C4-C1D86A50475D.thumb.png.b4d31b4e4462f4c90b5a081ef164a6c3.png

2D777FD6-87BD-4B86-97A1-E000168A7CCF.thumb.png.bce5dfef843cfe2456f9c63aec795c60.png7168EE02-6EFC-4149-B88E-B584F063A3C9.thumb.png.921bc40f02cfac9217725f95531fced3.png

 

Edited by danm

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Just now, danm said:

GFS also looks largely fine next week but starts becoming low pressure dominated by next Sunday. That is miles off though. 

4077B30C-C664-452E-856B-F4D522FFC64F.thumb.png.b2fa2c433c47bc1f4a5fa0dcb78741db.png

8FB9B7A4-8D0E-42A5-BFBE-0AA20DB22856.thumb.png.a784fd7e2343146296e4b966537d5f10.png

D09B8B9D-803F-469E-A753-0EBEB6606B38.thumb.png.0399963bd816945595bc124e29b53359.png

E2F5D7C1-E152-4978-837D-BB52D0D1EE4E.thumb.png.d061cc3a1bc6e6fb18f07050d0d63e2e.png

73EDE65E-9DFB-4E49-8176-A9DE9CCC1A62.thumb.png.7d121c60ace0e608cf717aaea8ac4a11.png

2D777FD6-87BD-4B86-97A1-E000168A7CCF.thumb.png.bce5dfef843cfe2456f9c63aec795c60.png7168EE02-6EFC-4149-B88E-B584F063A3C9.thumb.png.921bc40f02cfac9217725f95531fced3.png

42D61C2C-8001-42F7-A9C4-C1D86A50475D.png

GFS = Atlantic obsessed.

Looks very different to UKMO 144 so i'm not bothering to give it much attention, actually, i'm just plain ignoring it.

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GEM looks mainly dry and warm, brief Atlantic attack and then back to ,dare i say it, the July status quo-

image.thumb.png.5e39fc5fa6d4c5c47b2502019aa34f4e.png

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Looking at the GEFS 12z mean I would say next week is looking pretty good with heights from the azores linking up with high pressure to the north so predominantly decent summer weather with warm spells of sunshine, especially further south where the warmest temperatures would be.

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41 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean I would say next week is looking pretty good with heights from the azores linking up with high pressure to the north so predominantly decent summer weather with warm spells of sunshine, especially further south where the warmest temperatures would be.

I think temperatures would be pretty constant throughout the country with high pressure dominating to the north and a south easterly breeze? Low 20s pretty widely? 

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EC , as i suspected, nothing like the GFS...

Looks very dry and by day 8 increasingly warmer.

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Posted (edited)

ECM looking good countrywide next week...

36F91162-5C46-4712-B269-4115893993A1.thumb.png.97a138d0434d78f01af07375d847df8c.png

FAF25082-A8B9-4612-BEA4-5B000DCAEC4E.thumb.png.d871c542ea08e3be42d4dee137219861.png

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2093CFE3-9D54-4689-BB79-6C94CA411314.thumb.png.fc97c68bfbee65d2a57190bd8919784a.png

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6E6924C5-8F66-484C-81EC-14014FC2B524.png

 

Edited by danm

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Posted (edited)

Definitely no complaints about the Ecm 12z operational, plenty of high pressure / strong ridging, ergo largely settled and warm, very warm later!👍🌞

Edited by Jon Snow

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15 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Any signs of a plume on the horizon?

Not so sure about plume, but if you like warm and settled conditions you will be happy with the ECM mean 🌞👍

EDM1-120 (1).gif

EDM1-168 (1).gif

EDM1-192 (1).gif

EDM1-216 (1).gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

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Evening....! No general concensus from the ecm or gfs has to what type of weather will be next week ,great divergence from the models , but the looks likely that we will see more changeable weather next week   .........😉

h850t850eu.png

ecmt850.168.png

h850t850eu-1.png

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A very decent Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight which compliments the operational..especially for southern uk the azores ridge / high looks influential bringing a good deal of fine and warm weather, actually similar to what the south currently has..and will be enjoying again tomorrow!👍

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

A very decent Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight which compliments the operational..especially for southern uk the azores ridge / high looks influential bringing a good deal of fine and warm weather, actually similar to what the south currently has..and will be enjoying again tomorrow!👍

A very fine, benign and pleasant summer outlook on the models. You just can’t been the English summer in early July when the Azores high is ridging in. No oppressive raging heat, just long bright warm days. Long may it continue.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening....! No general concensus from the ecm or gfs has to what type of weather will be next week ,great divergence from the models , but the looks likely that we will see more changeable weather next week   .........😉

h850t850eu.png

ecmt850.168.png

h850t850eu-1.png

Perhaps you should take a closer look at the ECM and the mean!! 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed.

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