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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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A good signal for a general warm-up between the 8th and 16th of July::oldgood:

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

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I would say looking at the GEFS 12z mean that next week is predominantly settled and warm across southern uk due to azores ridging or a high pressure cell, probably progressively cooler and more changeable / unsettled the further north you are..

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A good signal for a general warm-up between the 8th and 16th of July::oldgood:

 

prcpLondon.png

They have trended wetter again though, there were only a few and very low spikes a few days ago, particularly surprising as the Met have said the rain more likely in NW and high pressure more likely as we go towards mid month.

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Ecm shows a blip around midweek, before high pressure strengthens again by later next week, pretty much ties in with the Exeter update as well.. All good 

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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A quick mention about the Gem 12z, it ends pretty warm, warm uppers anyway!!👍😉

gem-1-240.png

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Posted (edited)

Very decent end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean with the azores ridge looking stronger, indeed there's some fine warm weather early next week too across the south in particular.👍

And not forgetting, the best of this week's warmth and sunshine is still ahead of us for tomorrow and friday, especially across the S / SE.🌞

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

Another good mean from ECM... we just can't grumble.... July shaping up to be so much better than June. 

Edit... We posted at the same time Karl, regarding the mean 👍⌚

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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Evening .. the difference in models is quite striking next week this time low in control from ecm  gfs has still a flirting ridge next week. Bonkers model output🤣

h850t850eu-23.png

ecmt850-21.webp

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Posted (edited)

Being greedy, I’d still like that Azores ridge to make it over us then to our east. Hopefully some more experienced posters can comment on whether the background signals support such an evolution.

Edited by Djdazzle

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One low manages to hit the UK on the ECM but the bigger picture is northern blocking disappearing in the mid range, which means the next low pressure misses us as it takes a more northerly path, allowing the azores to ridge into the UK by day 10. Will take that.

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14 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

One low manages to hit the UK on the ECM but the bigger picture is northern blocking disappearing in the mid range, which means the next low pressure misses us as it takes a more northerly path, allowing the azores to ridge into the UK by day 10. Will take that.

Yes, the Atlantic still looks quite active - i suspect a more traditional NW/SE split might be on the menu mid term but all in all a decent 1st half of July looks a safe shout at this stage.

 

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Posted (edited)

A wonderful week down these parts and for many others I suspect?! I wonder if we can squeeze a 28 or 29°C in the London area on Friday?

UKV:

viewimage.thumb.png.073c78f53c40d021eac36d70edb1cec9.png

Edited by Mapantz

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How often do we see the op and the mean tied together with the temperatures!! The ensembles clearly show the mid week blip with pressure falling... But note the operational was a little extreme with it!! Either way the mean and the op clearly recovering pressure later next week. 

graphe_ens3.png

graphe_ens3 (1).png

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening .. the difference in models is quite striking next week this time low in control from ecm  gfs has still a flirting ridge next week. Bonkers model output🤣

h850t850eu-23.png

ecmt850-21.webp 129.71 kB · 3 downloads

Really ? There isn't a huge difference between the two frames you posted - certainly not a bonkers difference.

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Posted (edited)

Just a quick one from me,the models was showing a trough coming down from the north by the end of this week and into the weekend,now that looks like a distant memory with upgrades to higher pressure from the azures taking over,so some upgrades in terms of warmth esp the south,anymore upgrades?

maybe so.

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.574d7f04356996076b4457e1df038250.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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As the pattern continues to evolve the ridge/trough complex over western Europe becomes briefly neutrally aligned but the mid Atlantic trough is gaining some traction. So Tuesday/Weds a couple of pleasant days and quite warm on Weds

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-2760000.thumb.png.53b867f2136bbb4c89d011a59dcfab7c.png

By Friday there is more mobile Atlantic with systems running around the Greenland high cell but best left here

gfs-nhemi-z300_speed-2932800.thumb.png.41631ac5bf0a6448ce22fe12691472cc.png

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At T144 the ecm also has the ridge/trough complex in western Europe becoming a tad tenuous and the Atlantic stirring with some robust ridging over NE America Thus some showery rain creeping in by Weds

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-2716800.thumb.png.6cd6acd8f528682e262a79cc9be766d8.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-2803200.thumb.png.8f8faff6a3a4cc214e00189e6f15c3b2.pngindex.thumb.png.f7ab6abd8788baccf936625838455fe4.png

The latest sat image

sat.thumb.JPG.cda1202d1a57be55a896ac22677ed824.JPG

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Lovely ECM again today - bank! Day 9 and 10 looking good.

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Posted (edited)

EC looks OK to me too- a few nice days coming up- esp the further south one heads , gathering momentum for a glancing blow from the Atlantic and then another pulse of ridging from the Azores- temps generally a little above average.

Not earth shattering, but not a disaster by any means..

Ends on a positive note for summer lovers.

image.thumb.png.f3bbae1e13c3e3c5ca7edee4c16f4c6f.png

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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All the big 3 looking generally good this morning. High pressure dominated, just a hint again of a temporary incursion from a small area of low pressure mainly further north on Thursday and Friday next week before another rebuild of heights from the Azores into next weekend. So plenty of fine, warm, sunny weather over the next week. 

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And still, the GFS is showing a nice over all warm-up::yahoo:

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

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Posted (edited)

Longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean looking good with a stronger azores ridge, early next week looks decent too across the south. In the meantime, enjoy the best of this week's warmth and sunshine today and tomorrow, temps across the S / SE could hit 26c today and 27-28c tomorrow..not to be sniffed at!👍

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

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