Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Recommended Posts

Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

It looks like some very nice warmth and sunshine'll be the order-of-the-day come the weekend after next...If the trusty old GFS is right, of course?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Sorry can't post the charts but the Ecm 0z ensemble mean is another improvement on yesterday, especially later in terms of the azores ridge / high!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
h2005__uk__ Enthusiast

h2005__uk__

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It looks like some very nice warmth and sunshine'll be the order-of-the-day come the weekend after next...If the trusty old GFS is right, of course?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

What likely maxes would this bring, subject to the usual caveats?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Sorry can't post the charts but the Ecm 0z ensemble mean is another improvement on yesterday, especially later in terms of the azores ridge / high!

Just to think Karl a couple of days a go, I said I thought the trough to our NE was being overplayed.... And I think some thought I was mad.... You no what I think it's about the only time I've got something right!!! I must be getting better, so many good posters on here, make that job much easier....,

Ps... Here are some highlights of the mean.. 

Edit... There was a couple of others stating things were not looking as bad as some were making out.... Hats of to you guys.... I award you a gold star... ⭐

EDM1-96.gif

EDM1-120 (1).gif

EDM1-168 (1).gif

EDM1-192 (1).gif

EDM1-216 (1).gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

What likely maxes would this bring, subject to the usual caveats?

I would say mid to high 20's celsius across southern uk, especially the s / se as long as the many factors are favourable..sunshine being high on the list!

PS..good call Matt (regarding your post above)..

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
47 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

What likely maxes would this bring, subject to the usual caveats?

Easily in the 25-28c range. Light winds, flow from the SW, uppers of 10-12c. Very decent!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Another excellent GFS run on the 6z. Next week is looking glorious for the vast majority:

D81AAF95-1E74-4C79-966D-D30E39F6BBDB.thumb.png.fac9ca5cab999ec3c2a700402844888e.png

FDED8056-4110-4E53-AEFA-9446588F2BE5.thumb.png.e3fac3ce115af36c732d1d7b0d3efdac.png

15C54523-3F88-4D66-AE88-F4B0AE3BE4D4.thumb.png.c980f978af5f554396ab9b1a5277ad60.png

85533236-3266-4AFE-A3EE-61FCDC38ABE1.thumb.png.f945a8843d0335ec814c94f9ceb18550.png

2A4CFFAC-787F-4DD0-B38E-B2E2E4DC3480.thumb.png.8c4d6afd158621a0c75cb0f7f800090d.png

40FB6C6D-92A9-4E30-9813-0FE1314D28F8.thumb.png.a62b229e2088875f34541d3b5bb1adb1.png

E178F26E-9BD2-4ADD-948B-5938DEECA31F.thumb.png.ede14f1d47773bb894577ab880c9b8eb.png

B73CDADF-9BFE-4599-AC54-E41D7EED752B.thumb.png.9e2177dc5bf9164612f68a2f5884f925.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Just looking through the GEFS 6z next week there is plenty of support for fine and warm, perhaps very warm surface conditions, far more than was the case very recently which compliments the nice looking operational for the same period!!.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

That's one very nice, sustained increase in 850s, on that thar 06Z!:yahoo:

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Literally all the models I've viewed so far today out to next week show low pressure to our W/NW, with the bulk of the U.k under a ridge of high pressure, so things looking very nice away from the far NW of the country. Its looks to me that high pressure to our SW is gonna be a dominant feature over the next 2 weeks, bar a blip this weekend with cooler conditions and some patchy rain on Saturday, things on the up from Sunday onwards... Not bad at all folks. 

navgem-0-180.png

J180-21.gif

gfs-0-180.png

gfs-0-180 (1).png

ECM1-192 (1).gif

gem-0-180.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

It would be interesting to see what the rainfall totals would be if the 06z GFS comes off. 

We have gone from a cool northerly to an anticyclonic pattern overall, though the 06z does push a bit of cooler air south again by the weekend but with high pressure close by.

Rather warm days but cool nights overall if the GFS were to come into fruition. It's been a while since we have had a month of average temperatures but with low rainfall along with minima pulling temperature anomalies down... as opposed to maxima as is typical these days.

With an anticyclone around or near the UK however the outlook could easily change to a warm one and the ECM has less in the way of cool air.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Just had a glance at the cfs 0z and there's plenty of good news longer term, frequent high pressure from the azores extending across the uk, especially southern uk with some very warm conditions..obviously it's not all perfect, there are some cooler changeable interludes but it's better than the cfs was showing recently!!

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

 Not a bad icon... High pressure looking to strengthen from the SW towards the end of next week. 

icon-0-96.png

icon-0-120.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-180.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 Not a bad icon... High pressure looking to strengthen from the SW towards the end of next week. 

icon-0-96.png

icon-0-120.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-180.png

Really, its terrible compared to GFS 06z run with low much more firmly in control through the early part of next week......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Really, its terrible compared to GFS 06z run with low much more firmly in control through the early part of next week......

I said high pressure looks like becoming more dominant towards the end of the run... If you don't like that, how about ukmo, or is that not to your taste as well. 

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

giphy.gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

UKMO only goes out to 144 but follows the trend of recent GFS and ECM runs to build in the Azores high again next week. Monday and Tuesday charts below:

4CA48A0F-A8AE-46BD-B76D-C147B803BFBF.thumb.png.7ad570d95abfcbf53753f542c1d770e7.png

49538145-A714-4FF5-B548-EAACFCE4D0CE.thumb.png.095949da449c22897857f9f8f5ad39d9.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Excellent GFS/UKMO with the Azores high ridging in to settle things down after a very brief incursion from the trough , first half of July now looks entirely acceptable with High pressure never far away .

ukmo 144

image.thumb.png.9d702df2e4b736a19d9d889e1a1436f5.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

12Z not looking too 'abysmal' after next weekend?:search:

h850t850eu.png h500slp.pngimage.thumb.png.d688696c762abe41e81259ae530e91ce.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Really, its terrible compared to GFS 06z run with low much more firmly in control through the early part of next week......

He's being positive which is what I like to read! and there are positives again today..more than yesterday regarding the azores high / ridge influence!

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

image.thumb.png.b8f6da1086d420cbbfd3493c4e3fb1bd.png

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Another stellar GFS run if you like warm, settled summer weather. Next week looks excellent. Just a hint of more of a low pressure influence further north and west towards the end of next week on this run, however that’s a long way off. 

28C07F0E-1B02-4E80-AAFC-0F2E90CCD13F.thumb.png.340d6a7a55c609d0c01f2a4c0efca252.png

81AECADA-BFE8-46F6-A41F-8F1088D6ED5D.thumb.png.765fd3d44dbac78e0deccee8391da67f.png

A1426263-1348-488C-A0F6-B25CA25D9D50.thumb.png.f18620edb63ce756c7a399eaf9efb0bf.png

E36130F6-B28A-4DBD-A904-4F74E438A9BF.thumb.png.5c6cc463c9f419926e06e8d7091e5faf.png

5A90517C-95C6-4FA4-A340-F1DC3AD7D68B.thumb.png.a8fd37a362777f1ca88a64e715a9e8b2.png

98F59521-9960-452E-8970-C42E0D398B3F.thumb.png.476ded6a6f3e412caccc705ed64ebd7b.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Oh, I say! h500slp.png  image.thumb.png.77edbee93150048fb556b73e78e99a7d.png

Looks like there might be a wee bit of heat building-up down in Europe?

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)

Bit of a wobble from the ECM. Wednesday into Thursday the Azores high retreats 

 

B28F7E07-7E5A-423E-97FC-7909A28AD1C5.png

FC899F31-BD51-437B-9CE4-16857B4218F5.png

Edited by danm
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

GFS 12z seems keen to let the Atlantic hurricane season wake up early...

image.thumb.png.716d379a51cffb74723e448837e04add.png

Probably won't be there next run.

Hopefully not an omen for the season ahead though....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...