Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[danm]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z looking better too..

More emphasis on the Azores high ala ECM...

 

Yep, pub run also keen to build in the Azores high next week...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by danm

[northwestsnow]

Met office 1-0 BBC

Joking aside, much better outputs this evening, could swing back the other way tomorrow of course, 18z as posted, is better ..

night all

edit 18z goes all southerly tracking jet into low res..

Edited July 2, 2019 by northwestsnow

[StormChaseUK]

BBC are basically just using an App lol rather than Met Office super computers.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

According to the gfs 18z a couple of weeks of fine weather with little rain. Then southerly tracking yet. Bringing a low from the Atlantic towards the UK. All F.I at the minute of course. Been OK today in my area up in sunny south Yorkshire lol. sunny spells and warm sunshine. High about 19oC if everyday could be the same. Don't get me wrong I do love heat and a good thunderstorms after. But today has been spot on minds anything can be better than early June to be honest. Tomorrow supposed to be same and slightly warmer too. Enjoy all. Can't have it all. Night. 

[northwestsnow]

Another day, another lovely UKMO run, looks like EC  perhaps spotted the way forward last night..

Can't post charts im on my not very smart fone but the azores high is moving in a treat on this run 

Edited July 3, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

A warm and sunny day beckons for much of England and Wales, perhaps some small Cu bubbling up through the day, but cloudier in N. Ireland and Scotland, courtesy of the tail end of a warm front tracking around the northern perimeter of the high cell, This could also bring some rain to northern Scotland

Any  cloud over England and Wales will clear this evening resulting in another clear and dry night with perhaps the odd mist/fog patch by morning. N. Ireland and Scotland remaining cloudy with more persistent rain reaching the far north by dawn as another frontal system encroaches around the high cell.

The aforementioned frontal system will bring some quite heavy rain to NW Scotland on Thursday and the cloud from this will spread further south over N. Ireland and the north of England. Elsewhere it will be another sunny day with light winds and again perhaps some small Cu bubbling up

Over Thursday night and through Friday the evolution of the pattern that has been discussed in previous posts is taking place as an upper low tracks east across Iceland to merge with the TPV over Scandinavia. Thus by midday Friday there is a surface low north of Scotland with the associated cold front pushing south to bring rain to N, Ireland and Scotland whilst further south it will be sunny and warn with temps above average,

The low tracks into southern Sweden by midday Saturday and the cold front continues to move south down the UK introducing much cooler air and perhaps the odd shower, But the overall pattern is getting a tad complex with the sub tropical high to the west amplifying up over Greenland and other trough running around the TPV

And the NH 500mb profile midday Sunday is not an unfamiliar one  and on the surface there is a  slack area of low pressure over the UK which portends the odd shower with sunny intervals with temps a tad below average.

[knocker]

Over the next couple of days the quite intense ridge Greenland > east north of Iceland, aided and abetted by the Azores high manage to disrupt the TPV and the trough running around it is dislodged west and loses it's identity/ Thus the UK under a very slack high pressure Monday/Tuesday with temps around average.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Can we glass the gfs 00z run as a Stella summer one? I must admit it is a bit more touch and go the further north you go but even further north joining in on the summery conditions.. 

 

One thing.. Looks dry 

[knocker]

Current sat image

And the 6-11 gfs anomaly

 

Edited July 3, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

And talking about abnormal ridges and heatwaves

Southern Alaska's ongoing heatwave is expected to intensify significantly over coming week. Strength of high-pressure ridge at mid-levels of atmosphere may exceed all-time records over much of state. Surface temperatures may also reach all-time records in southern areas.

[northwestsnow]

Looking good, is it too early for a boom?

Edited July 3, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Looking decent at 168 - temps back above average for many

 

Can the Az high push north at day 8 though?

Edited July 3, 2019 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Over the next couple of days the quite intense ridge Greenland > east north of Iceland, aided and abetted by the Azores high manage to disrupt the TPV and the trough running around it is dislodged west and loses it's identity/ Thus the UK under a very slack high pressure Monday/Tuesday with temps around average.

The second image here is key at 156 hours - showing the UK sat in the only favourable position for this type of set up. Deep troughs either side, and the UK under the ridge. Looking more than decent again this morning, which isn't to be sneezed at.

[northwestsnow]

35 minutes ago, knocker said:

Current sat image

And the 6-11 gfs anomaly

 

Blimey, think we might have had a stroke of good luck here Knocks- could have been a very different story.

[Methuselah]

Well, the GEFS 00Z ensemble looks better, and things appear to be headed in the right direction; though, clearly, the operational is very much at the warm end of the pack?

  

  

And, lastly, ONE possible destination out of very many. NWP clearly has its limits.

  

[northwestsnow]

Most of Europe looks warm at day 9- a battle royal going on with energy distribution in the Atlantic , UK still warm/very warm ..

I would suggest Summer is here to stay in the South and South East in particular ..

Edited July 3, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey, think we might have had a stroke of good luck here Knocks- could have been a very different story.

One could almost say sublime nws

The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs Mon/Tues but is it preparing the ground for a weak east Atlantic trough?

Edited July 3, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

The next week looking very dry barring the far NW of Scotland
 

 

[northwestsnow]

The heat seems to become stationary on the EC det-

By day 9 temps are still in the warm cat- possibly very warm in the SE?

I was feeling a little despondent a couple of days ago if i'm honest- i was harking back to 2012 , EC 12Z yesterday seemingly picked up a change of direction and perhaps crucially is now going down the same path with the Azores high gaining traction.I guess it shows things can change very suddenly ..

 

[mb018538]

I also think a key point is perhaps all of the models slight over-eagerness to ramp up and keep heights over the pole and Greenland.

Here's a NH snapshot for the 11th July from the 1st July ECM 00z and from today's run:



Much lower heights.....as a result the trough is tilted in a different direction and doesn't affect the UK anything like as much.

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I also think a key point is perhaps all of the models slight over-eagerness to ramp up and keep heights over the pole and Greenland.

Here's a NH snapshot for the 11th July from the 1st July ECM 00z and from today's run:

Much lower heights.....as a result the trough is tilted in a different direction and doesn't affect the UK anything like as much.

I think its more that they always seem to shift Eastwards as you get nearer to T0 to be honest, its like in winter, sometimes the fear of a West based - NAO is over egged and it ends up too far East based with all the cold going into mainland Europe.

[SMU]

The top 3 most negative AO Julys

2009 - The lowest...  ( -1.35 )

2016 & 1962 !! 

Hummmm...

Jan 63 -3.3 AO

Feb 10 -4.26 AO record breaker.

 

 

Edited July 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[danm]

Cross model agreement on the Azores high rebuilding next week after a cooler blip this weekend. Here’s the big 3 at 144hrs:

 

[Frosty.]

I agree it just looks a mini blip this weekend as a weak cold front pushes down, briefly returning to low 20's c for the south and then warming up again next week, the next few days could see 27c in the s / se.

[Methuselah]

A coolish but mainly dry weekend on the way...Can polar bears get suntanned?