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Paul

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Disappointing GEFS 00z mean beyond this working week, scandi troughs, cool northerly flow..not very July like!👎

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Disappointing GEFS 00z mean beyond this working week, scandi troughs, cool northerly flow..not very July like!👎

A rather disappointed set of 00Z ensembles too, Karl...Next weekend is no-longer looking to great?

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

However, given the GFS's disagreement with the UKMO, we need to stay calm?

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQilDLi410zdsAK_tB9oaC

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Uppers look warm/very warm on ukmo moving through next weekend, so im not sure how that backs GFS?

I think the point I was trying to make (and did a bad job) was that despite ukmo looking better through the early part of the weekend and pretty warm the inevitable is waiting behind its 144 chart, ie Scandi trough digging down and an Azores / Greeny link up. 

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Following a largely fine and pleasantly warm working week under a strong ridge, the question I'm asking is will the force be stronger with the scandi trough or further azores ridging, or just some ebb and flow between those two forces?

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Another spell of mid to upper 20s looks very possible later this week in the south at least according to 00z UKMO with high temps extending further north by Friday and Saturday

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019070100_90_7523_1.thumb.png.d8731963a0ee5b20c128da411c7ef0b8.pngus_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019070100_114_7523_1.thumb.png.15ce8d7f23f514fbfbbd23fd48963278.pngus_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019070100_138_7523_1.thumb.png.19832bebf6190aac4982f9b053f690ca.png

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Bit of an overreaction from some in here this morning? Yes the GFS looks poor from next Monday onwards, but the ECM and UKMO look decent to me. ECM shows a glancing blow from the Scandi trough for the NE on Friday before pressure rebuilds over the weekend. It’s shown this for several runs now. Beyond that we’re getting into FI and even then next Monday and Tuesday looks high pressure dominated before some more influence from the Scandi trough to the NE again. So most of the run shows settled, sometimes warm, sunny weather. 

UKMO makes less of the Scandi trough on Friday than the ECM and is also largely settled and warm. Yes, the Scandi trough is close to our shores again by Sunday but it isn’t over us and the south at least looks potentially very warm. 

Anything from next Monday onwards is too far out to get worked up about, especially as a small shift east of the entire pattern could put us back into heatwave territory again. 

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A slight step back from the Scandi trough at D8/D10 on the ECM ensemble mean this morning:

EDM1-216.GIF?01-12

The models can't quite make up their minds on what to do with the UK next week. The Azores ridge is close enough to ridge in and keep us settled (and inevitably warm/hot at this time of year), but the Scandi trough is strong enough and positioned sufficiently to bring down northerlies with rogue troughs on the west flank too. It could go either way. The one fairly certain observation is that the South West has the best chance of staying fine throughout the period.

 

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

A rather disappointed set of 00Z ensembles too, Karl...Next weekend is no-longer looking to great?

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

However, given the GFS's disagreement with the UKMO, we need to stay calm?

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQilDLi410zdsAK_tB9oaC

Indeed, not looking good Ed, following a very poor June this isn't what I wanted to see in the height of summer but it could be an overreaction.

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55 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, not looking good Ed, following a very poor June this isn't what I wanted to see in the height of summer but it could be an overreaction.

With a nagging continuation of the negative AO and NAO forecast well into July, the odds of the UK being warm are reduced.....but last week showed it's possible to get hot weather from such a scenario. More often than not it's cool weather prevailing though.

I really don't like the ECM day 10 chart on the 00z, it just opens the door for southerly tracking lows to persist around the UK. With so much difference between the big 3 at 96-144 hours i won't worry too much just yet.

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC not backing down and showing a northerly setting up by 96 😞

image.thumb.png.9be5ac68a79e584ed4b602947833d000.png

Huge difference to UKMO @96!

image.thumb.png.7a9d6d31b79a4c05a467824c7d08e07c.png

That is disappointing as it's patterns like this the UK need to take advantage of. Green crap from the North just sets us back weeks and weeks again.

We don't often get the low over Iberia with SE flow and it can be weeks or month before it appears again.  Unless that green area can just go down into Mid Europe, Russia allowing pressure build to the west like a rollercoaster movement.

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Not a great Sunday, if one takes the 06Z as gospel. But, hopefully, it'll be only a temporary swipe?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

image.thumb.png.61f8fe96735bdbc26ef058bee724637e.png

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Back to rubbish May/early June again.    Although only subtle changes could turn hot again. 

 

ukmaxtemp.png

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To my eye the GFS 6z is nowhere near as bad as the 0z. All FI though post this weekend, so anything in that timeframe is taken with a pinch of salt etc.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

With a nagging continuation of the negative AO and NAO forecast well into July, the odds of the UK being warm are reduced.....but last week showed it's possible to get hot weather from such a scenario. More often than not it's cool weather prevailing though.

I really don't like the ECM day 10 chart on the 00z, it just opens the door for southerly tracking lows to persist around the UK. With so much difference between the big 3 at 96-144 hours i won't worry too much just yet.

It's a real mess on the clusters after T192 (which is thankfully more muted on the Scandi trough than the op) - doesn't inspire confidence but at least keeps the door open for something more settled to persist. 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, danm said:

To my eye the GFS 6z is nowhere near as bad as the 0z. 

Disagree, if anything it looks worse, temps well below average at times..after the current working week.

Edited by Jon Snow

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And the charts for T+339 look rather familiar...and familiarity only breeds contempt!:shok:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the charts for T+339 look rather familiar...and familiarity only breeds contempt!:shok:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Early Autumn?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the charts for T+339 look rather familiar...and familiarity only breeds contempt!:shok:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Looks like the start of Autumn, would take about a month to shift that, so pretty much in time for Autumn to start officially. 

but so far out it would be impossible to be certain 2 weeks away. 

Edited by StormChaseUK

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Disagree, if anything it looks worse, temps well below average at times..after the current working week.

Disagree. Let’s peruse some charts for early next week and compare Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday between the GFS 0z and 6z. 

0z first - Scandi trough much more dominant with virtually the entire UK under a cool N/NE’rly airflow. 

BECDACEC-8417-4336-917C-19FD892893AC.thumb.png.3cf3285597ccc2b0d97c5cae4a623e03.png

A402F233-2655-48B7-973C-52B19508DF12.thumb.png.962ce1be32565bf0213c15b7777dbab6.png

1225B18B-1DDF-415F-B4C7-2ABDC5EDBBAA.thumb.png.4c1973b495894e398d8f9ff844768b41.png

6z - Scandi trough much less dominant and retreats east, with pressure building in from the west. 

F510D255-DD0F-417E-A830-694DD8618B2D.thumb.png.89c9a7b11d29873b3a26b4921fc35701.png

F16A4BBD-EB7B-4CCE-8676-E206F8B9EC69.thumb.png.6295fbbaee9bdfffe897942775eb7328.png

1C4A3616-CEB3-4A12-A658-C991BC61A8FD.thumb.png.b3640fa645da1c44e8e9d303490c7a5a.png

Not suggesting we’re going to see a heatwave but early next week looks better at face value on the 6z than on the 0z. Anything beyond that time frame isn’t worth getting concerned about. Frankly, even Monday next week is not worth getting concerned about yet as it’s 7 days away, but the latest run is an improvement. Could all change again by this afternoon! 

Bottom line is I don’t think we need to be getting too down yet. Plenty of fine weather this week and into the weekend. Next week and beyond is too far off to be getting worried about. 

 

Edited by danm

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1 minute ago, danm said:

Disagree. Let’s peruse some FI charts for early next week and compare Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday between the GFS 0z and 6z. 

0z first - Scandi trough much more dominant with virtually the entire UK under a cool N/NE’rly airflow. 

6z - Scandi trough much less dominant and retreats east, with pressure building in from the west. 

Not suggesting we’re going to see a heatwave but early next week looks better at face value on the 6z than on the 0z. Anything beyond that time frame isn’t worth getting concerned about. Frankly, even Monday next week is not getting concerned about yet as it’s 7 days away, but the latest run is an improvement. Could all change again by this afternoon! 

Bottom line is I don’t think we need to be getting too down yet. Plenty of fine weather this week and into the weekend. Next week and beyond is too far off to be getting concerned about. 

BECDACEC-8417-4336-917C-19FD892893AC.png

A402F233-2655-48B7-973C-52B19508DF12.png

1225B18B-1DDF-415F-B4C7-2ABDC5EDBBAA.png

F510D255-DD0F-417E-A830-694DD8618B2D.png

F16A4BBD-EB7B-4CCE-8676-E206F8B9EC69.png

1C4A3616-CEB3-4A12-A658-C991BC61A8FD.png

I'm not getting down about about it, just saying what's currently showing and it ain't pretty beyond around day 5, temps become very unseasonably cool further north in particular..but of course it could be wrong..it usually is!👍

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm not getting down about about it, just saying what's currently showing and it ain't pretty beyond around day 5, temps become very unseasonably cool further north in particular..but of course it could be wrong..it usually is!👍

Understand, just making the point that the latest run is better, not worse. Let’s hope the improvements continue on the GFS because the ECM and UKMO overnight runs were much better. 

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Far to much gloom again, some folk must have got out of the wrong side of bed this morning. I pointed out the ECM mean was better than the op last night, and I stand by it this morning, the mean is again an improvement.. The Scandi trough is further East. The N/NE may get  some cooler and perhaps more unsettled conditions, away from these areas it looks largely fine... Absolutely no point in looking for any kind of guidelines at 14 days out on a GFS op.... 

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Posted (edited)

Beyond this week's fine pleasantly warm spell, the GEFS 6z mean is an improvement on the 0z, the cool trough to the NE is more of a glancing blow  and going even further forward the temperatures look higher, especially further s / w.. much better than the 6z operational for sure!👍

Edited by Jon Snow

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The week just gone will quickly become a blip and distant memory if the 6z comes off. No sign of any extreme heatwave coming anytime soon either..  Definately could be a curtain closer on Summer 2019 if it came off.

bye summer.png

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1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

The week just gone will quickly become a blip and distant memory if the 6z comes off. No sign of any extreme heatwave coming anytime soon either..  Definately could be a curtain closer on Summer 2019 if it came off.

bye summer.png

Yeh but we can't write of summers based on a gfs 6z operational... Much more data needs to ba analysed before that conclusion can be made.... Anyway the mean was better than the op... But I have a  feeling in me water that just a couple of more dodgy op runs, and a few on here will indeed begin to write off the next 8 weeks. 

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