Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[northwestsnow]

Lots for the models to sort out over the coming days- 

EC very bullish about this troughing putting a spoiler on things later next week but i'm not convinced personally.

One problem we do have is the almost constant blocking highs over the Pole , its almost inevitable the jet and associated troughing will end up in our locale if this pattern doesn't shift.

 

Edited June 30, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, thestixx said:

BBC weather for the week makes the same assertion. The high just never creeps in enough! 

Not as this is the place for it, but they are again at complete loggerheads with Exeter who predict settled conditions out to mid month. There must be some kind of competition between them, because I for one just can't work it out... I thought the mean was better than the op... Small corrections could make a huge difference... Far to early to be saying the trough will win out with high pressure remaining to far West... 

The ens prove my point, the op was far to severe with a pressure fall. 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[mb018538]

I wouldn’t place too much faith in one over the other - in fact the bbc were much more on the money with regards to last weeks heat, the met went way over the top with their predictions. 

Personally my view is that you should enjoy the fine weather next week I til the weekend, because things will likely turn south beyond then. Once that Atlantic and Greenland high links up again we could be seeing something more like early June, though perhaps not with the silly amounts of rain.

[Frosty.]

We shouldn't overlook the fine warm weather from tues-fri thanks to the azores ridge..hoping the Gem is right, that was a gem of a run!!

[Mike Poole]

Taking a bit of a break now, after an awful lot of watching countless models and ensembles, record uppers, record continental temperatures, and intrigue as to how this would impact the UK, with things like Glastonbury going on....most of that panned out well in the UK.

As probably will Wimbledon, starts tomorrow, don't know why they need that No. 1 Court roof.  

12z runs?  Here's all of them at T144:

Pick the bones out of that, and the consistent is the cut off low west of Portugal, waiting in the wings while high pressure tries to influence the UK.  And beyond that, we wait and see....

i think high pressure to push in but vulnerable to another plume.  We will see.....

Edited June 30, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wouldn’t place too much faith in one over the other - in fact the bbc were much more on the money with regards to last weeks heat, the met went way over the top with their predictions. 

Personally my view is that you should enjoy the fine weather next week I til the weekend, because things will likely turn south beyond then. Once that Atlantic and Greenland high links up again we could be seeing something more like early June, though perhaps not with the silly amounts of rain.

Well that's just so pessimistic... Your talking like the link up with the Greenland high is a done deal at over 7 days away!! And to say we could end with a similar scenario to early June beggars belief... 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

its almost inevitable the jet and associated troughing will end up in our locale if this pattern doesn't shift.

 

Sincerely hope we don't become a trough magnet again like most of June..fingers crossed the 00z mean will be better.

[summer blizzard]

Strong upper high near Salvabard on both models. Quite rare for July.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Strong upper high near Salvabard on both models. Quite rare for July.

And a real pain for those of us wanting the jet to stay north of the UK..

For now at least things look OK, ive posted that im of the opinion that the initial troughing across Scandy will get pushed further east over the next few days  ..

Anyway, even if we get an unsettled spell it has no bearing on August, and we are long overdue a good August.

Edited June 30, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

Well at least July is going to start better than June, this month we never saw a High over us until last week, most of the week ahead we have a nice strong azores ridge / high pressure cell!

[Singularity]

It’s a very sensitive situation with the Arctic blocking; if there’s not enough Nino forcing then a lengthy cool spell is possible, perhaps unsettled at times. If there’s plenty then a prolonged very warm to hot spell could easily take shape. 

Majority vote from the models is currently neither here nor there; high pressure close to the west with intermittent ridging across. A lot of dry weather, generally sunniest and warmest in the SE due to the average wind direction being NW for the ten days as a whole.

[Man With Beard]

Looked through the ECM ensembles and, as I feared, a strong signal by D10 for the Scandi trough to influence not just our weather, but most of Europe too. 

Still, Scandi troughs at this range often verify a little further east than planned. If you're taking a break next week in the UK, a betting person would go SW

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looked through the ECM ensembles and, as I feared, a strong signal by D10 for the Scandi trough to influence not just our weather, but most of Europe too. 

Still, Scandi troughs at this range often verify a little further east than planned. If you're taking a break next week in the UK, a betting person would go SW

Yup, we need to see these Arctic heights to go and get a life and vacate the premises!!

[Catacol]

July looks to be heading in a better direction than I thought might be the case a week ago. Trades in the pacific are forecast to be replaced with a wind burst that will help promote a Nino basestate to the pattern - meaning support for the azores ridge

and the cold SST profile over the tropical atlantic favours high pressure over western Europe - this my most recent reading and a new factor to my thinking. 

However - as @Singularity has pointed out and I have mused over through June, the extent of northern blocking is still a potential issue. EPS notes building pressure to the NW once again

and in general this will tend to feed in polar air into the mix. Whether rising pressure to the NW allows the scandy trough further south and west we will need to see. So overall another decent week - not especially hot (thankfully) and then a pattern that may sustain through to mid month. Exeter seem to think so. Average temperatures overall. Beyond that hard to see how these drivers will develop - too early for any substantial impact from the next MJO cycle.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Catacol

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

The ecm changes from run to run at 10 days so wouldn't worry too much about the scandy troughing affecting our weather just yet. I'm sure we can't have another spell of crap like early/mid June. It would be very unlucky. Until the mets long range forecast changes I think we should be OK. Roll on the 18z. Ps don't trust anything you see in models past 5 days. 

[northwestsnow]

Lovely UKMO this morning ..

Very warm conditions into next weekend as the warmer air from the south gets sucked up towards the UK..

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lovely UKMO this morning ..

Very warm conditions into next weekend as the warmer air from the south gets sucked up towards the UK..

Dog's dinner of a chart

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Dog's dinner of a chart

Dogs dinner but very warm.

In fact from 72 right through to 144 it looks warm, perhaps thundery by 144 as pressure becomes slack..

Edited July 1, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Dog's dinner of a chart

That’s what I thought too and backs GFS which leads into a increasingly chilly weekend and early part of next week with a screaming northerly fetched pretty much from the North Pole. 

A reasonable few days coming up however there’s a huge amount of cloud to filter around and down over the UK so don’t expect a huge amount of sun this week either unless your in the south west. 

[Weather-history]

Gfs 0z op run looks a northerly flow fest 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That’s what I thought too and backs GFS which leads into a increasingly chilly weekend and early part of next week with a screaming northerly fetched pretty much from the North Pole. 

A reasonable few days coming up however there’s a huge amount of cloud to filter around and down over the UK so don’t expect a huge amount of sun this week either unless your in the south west. 

Uppers look warm/very warm on ukmo moving through next weekend, so im not sure how that backs GFS?

Edited July 1, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

EC not backing down and showing a northerly setting up by 96

Huge difference to UKMO @96!

Edited July 1, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

EC/UKMO in quite strong disagreement for next weekend- UKMO looks warm away from the far north, EC looks anything but warm!

Shannon entropy reigns, for now..

Edit, EC shows the azores high moving back across at 144 but still 850s below average- 

 

Edited July 1, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Last one for me before bed- pretty much no agreement this morning between the big 3 ...

EC looks OK by 168 and says no thanks to the GFS idea of a N/NE ..

GFS 168

EC 168

Who do we trust at 96 though? UKMO usually really good at that range, but EC is top dog for a reason, i'm sure there will be some good posts today but i will be in the land of nod.:-)

Edited July 1, 2019 by northwestsnow

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Last one for me before bed- pretty much no agreement this morning between the big 3 ...

EC looks OK by 168 and says no thanks to the GFS idea of a N/NE ..

GFS 168

EC 168

Who do we trsut at 96 though? UKMO usually really good at that range, but EC is top dog for a reason, i'm sure there will be some good posts today but i will be in the land of nod.:-)

Its very exciting isn't it lol night pal