Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst winds are predominantly northwesterly, the airmass through most of the ECM operational is pretty warm or indeed very warm in the south with brief incursions of continental air. A lot of dry weather and with strong sunshine it would feel very nice.

In essence I would take that output for most of summer.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just an overview of the operational models between 120 hours to 240 hours this morning:

GFS 00Z

The GFS starts with a thin ridge of High Pressure from the South-West of the U.K poking its way through mostly Southern UK. A Low Pressure system in the mid Northern Atlantic then slides down to the North-East of the UK likely to bring some rain and showers (probably most likely for Northern and Eastern UK areas). We then see High Pressure from the South West of the U.K ridging back in, with the Highest of the Pressure over Southern UK, but Northern areas could see some settled, brighter weather too! Warm too, especially in sunnier spells. Around 240 hours a shallow area of Low Pressure takes over from the North-West with Pressure lowering a little over the UK. But doesn’t look like anything particularly unsettled! 

ECMWF 00Z

The ECMWF at 120 hours starts with a bit more of a stronger build of High Pressure from the West/South-West over the U.K compared to the GFS. Some slightly stronger upper heights I suspect helping out with this. It makes less of a feature of that Northern mid-Atlantic Low, which gets mostly pushed to the North of the U.K (though Northern areas around 144 hours would probably see a few showers). For generally the rest of the run, it has the Azores High Pressure to the South-West of the U.K being mostly in control - the highest pressure concentrated over South and Western areas, but close enough for most areas to stay quite dry! The odd disturbance or two from Low Pressure systems to the North and North-West of the High spilling over the top to affect some Northern UK parts. Especially at 216 hours. Southern and Western areas, though, clinging on to the driest, brightest conditions. Overall, quite High Pressure dominated and nothing majorly wet.

GEM 00Z

Starts out fairly similar to the 00Z GFS with a wedge of High Pressure from the South-West ridging through mostly Southern UK. Again, a Low Pressure system to the North-West of the UK puts some pressure on the ridge and holds the High Pressure out to the West/South-West of the UK. But close enough to keep a fair amount of areas, especially to the South and West of the U.K, settled. And while Northern areas could see a bit of damp weather, that Low doesn’t make a huge impact for the U.K. Ridging of High Pressure then builds back in through most areas of the U.K and the High seems to then transfer more towards the East and South East of the U.K. Becoming quite warm I imagine in places. Some shallow and weak areas of Low Pressure do try to squeeze in from the West towards us between the Greenland High and the High Pressure to the South-West over the U.K, which could bring some rain and thundery showers in places. Quite a different ending compared to the ECMWF, and especially the GFS. Still, apart from the end of the run, it doesn’t seem terribly unsettled. Maybe more settled than unsettled. Especially for Southern UK. 

Despite going out up to 144 hours, the UKMO sticks to a similar theme of High Pressure being in generally control both Thursday and Friday next week. The highest of the Pressure and upper heights towards the South West and the lowest of the surface and upper heights to the North-East towards Scandinavia.

The 6 to 10 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA sticking to a similar theme:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[GeordieX9v]

GFS has todays max for the Southampton area at 25/26Cm according to TheWeatherOutlook we've already reached that.

[northwestsnow]

EC/UKMO look lovely this morning.

Broadly speaking it looks better the further SE one heads but all in all , a decent pattern setting up for the 1st week in July.

[knocker]

Nothing to add to previous comments

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO.. ECM.... GFS....GEM at day 6... Looking good for a build of high pressure... New month, new trend.... Hopefully. 

 

 

[Methuselah]

Next weekend (if the 06Z's anything to go by) is looking fairly decent:

 

[clark3r]

Wouldn’t surprise me if we see another plume develop in next  2 to 3 weeks

[northwestsnow]

Yes 6Z now looking more like Euro's..

Outlook looks great, for summer lovers..

[mb018538]

ECM clusters highlighting uncertainty next week: 



At 144 hours we either have the trough by Scotland, into Scandi, or slap bang over the UK. Looking likely it will mainly stay out of our way though.

Day 10:



Cluster 2 looks decent. We will take that please!

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters highlighting uncertainty next week: 



At 144 hours we either have the trough by Scotland, into Scandi, or slap bang over the UK. Looking likely it will mainly stay out of our way though.

Day 10:



Cluster 2 looks decent. We will take that please!

Hmmmm, my confidence in a protracted settled spell just took a knock!

LOTS of uncertainty next week ..

 

[danm]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, my confidence in a protracted settled spell just took a knock!

LOTS of uncertainty next week ..

 

Yes but according to the clusters it’s still 65% high pressure dominated. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, my confidence in a protracted settled spell just took a knock!

LOTS of uncertainty next week ..

 

What I'm seeing NWS is for lots of settled Conditions away from the North... Scotland and N Ireland being prone to showers and cooler conditions, and perhaps at times towards NE/E areas. It looks very promising S/SW of those locations. 

The uncertainty seems to grow behind mid month with very warm settled conditions either continuing or a displaced high bringing unsettled conditions.... So they tell me to far off to worry about though peeps

Edited June 29, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

06Z ensembles are looking good for a sustained period of warmish uppers, once the midweek dip has passed:

  

  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Slowly but surely we are cutting off that Ntly... 6z icon showing the improving picture. One mention on this heat plume... What have we learned in the build up to it!??? Not alot it seems!!! Record breaking uppers could have easily brought 40c+ in places.... On the other hand the 2m temperature forecasts from the models just a couple of days ago showing 24-25c maximimuns have also failed in quite a big way... Some places potentially being 10c higher than that prediction!!! What does this tell us.... Trust not man.... Or machine in these circumstances! 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the Gem 0z longer term..could be another influx of hot continental air, at least into southern uk!

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes 6Z now looking more like Euro's..

Outlook looks great, for summer lovers..

And for those who don’t like heat. Best of both worlds. All in all looking very pleasant with plenty of the all important sunshine.

[knocker]

. Heathrow 33C, Brize Norton 32C and Farnborough 32C  Luton 30C and Gatwick 31C Down here of course we are under the cloud blanket

 

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the ICON 12z because it becomes anticyclonic and pretty warm actually, especially further south.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Captain Shortwave]

High pressure close by on the UKMO, leading to warm or very warm conditions though nothing over the top. There is also potentially a game changer occurring from day 6 onwards. A rather lazy looking trough being modelled in the Atlantic - another cut off low opportunity with the ridge well established across the UK, especially as there will already be a cold pool present west of Iberia by this stage...

Edited June 29, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

High pressure close by on the UKMO, leading to warm or very warm conditions though nothing over the top. There is also potentially a game changer occurring from day 6 onwards. A rather lazy looking trough being modelled in the Atlantic - another cut off low opportunity with the ridge well established across the UK, especially as there will already be a cold pool present west of Iberia by this stage...

Yes, an interesting observation CS.

UKMO 12z has the UK warm for the first 7 days of July.

A lovely run.

WRT the trough, this could assist in the plume scenario.

Edited June 29, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely scenario from UKMO out to day 6...notice low pressure just west of Spain.... Plume no2 anyone... Or have you not got over this one yet...

[Methuselah]

Staying fine at least up until next Sunday...according to the 12Z.

  

[Snowy L]

Great GFS, looking good for most of us all week. A couple of glancing blows from low pressure to our North but that shouldn't bother most of England. Cant beat home-grown heat sunny and low twenties.

[Mike Poole]

Good start from the 12s at T144:

T

Cut off low there on all of them, could throw wild  cards into the cement mixer of weather later, but all good for now....