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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

As highlighted now many many times in many threads we have entered a new era of Extremes... In this case heat.

France has broken its heat record @45.1c today.

Remember these ' super highs ' I keep referring to ( @shaky ) they are very real.

We have record global heat anomalies, record slow stratospheric winds, probable record period of consecutive -NAO days & so on....

Every day is a record of somekind these days...

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Not a bad icon it has to be said. There is I feel a brief flirt with a Ntly, but this is far from certain.. I feel high pressure again having the momentum further ahead.. 

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As highlighted now many many times in many threads we have entered a new era of Extremes... In this case heat.

France has broken its heat record @45.1c today.

Remember these ' super highs ' I keep referring to ( @shaky ) they are very real.

We have record global heat anomalies, record slow stratospheric winds, probable record period of consecutive -NAO days & so on....

Every day is a record of somekind these days...

The new Era? Funny I remember records being broken in 2003 then a long wait for anything substantial... Most of the east coast has been shivering this week with that awful wind from the North Sea

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
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Posted (edited)

H/t Mika Rantanen and the sounding I posted this morning

The Saharan air in the lower troposphere was transported all the way to UK last night, which resulted in quite a remarkable sounding from Camborne. T850 of 24.8°C beats the previous records from 1988, 2000 and 2003 by 3.4C.

2019062800.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.284ee3b637ae0b83170ac70fbadfa2f1.gifCapture.thumb.JPG.162a14f01acd233df622aa14fb9c843d.JPG

 

Edited by knocker
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Are we in with a chance, tomorrow, or are we not? How will my own guess of 36.*C fare? Touch-and-go I reckon...:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Plenty time for more plumes?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Can't post the charts right now but the ukmo 12h looks increasingly settled from next tuesday with first of all an azores ridge and then a high pressure cell across most of the uk by next midweek and another strong surge from the azores strengthening the settled spell further!!.

Edited by Jon Snow
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Can't post the charts right now but the ukmo 12h looks increasingly settled from next tuesday with first of all an azores ridge and then a high pressure cell across most of the uk by next midweek.

Indeed. UKMO looking good from the middle of next week (120h and 144h charts below). Although beyond 144h we could see more influence from the Scandi trough, particularly if it starts to phase with that low west of Iceland. 

 

8EBF8222-3EB8-4358-8E61-546F87A5F354.png

DD9C4EF8-9401-4C92-B168-753E5F6ABF3B.png

Edited by danm
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

UKMO charts out to day 6

How's that for a slice of fried gold.... Yehhhhh Boyyyyyyyyyyy!! Perfick

Edit just noticed danm posted them as well.

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

giphy-3.gif

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As highlighted now many many times in many threads we have entered a new era of Extremes... In this case heat.

France has broken its heat record @45.1c today.

Remember these ' super highs ' I keep referring to ( @shaky ) they are very real.

We have record global heat anomalies, record slow stratospheric winds, probable record period of consecutive -NAO days & so on....

Every day is a record of somekind these days...

Can these hold out for another 6 months though??

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, danm said:

 Although beyond 144h we could see more influence from the Scandi trough, particularly if it starts to phase with that low west of Iceland. 

 

 

DD9C4EF8-9401-4C92-B168-753E5F6ABF3B.png

Indeed but my focus was on the strengthening azores high / ridge..hopefully will be our friend through july & august..even september although I notice it's not everyone's cup of tea..it's certainly mine!!!.. that's where most of our summery spells start..with the azores high building in!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

And by day 6 we have perhaps the first sign of warmth building again... Plume no2 anyone!!! Suite you sir, suits me sir!!

UW144-7.gif

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can these hold out for another 6 months though??

They will come to an end on November 30th 

Been an interesting week for sure. 850s have been a poor guide but the GFS 2m temperatures have been just as woeful. This is the forecast maxima for today from Sunday night compared to the actual! Quite a difference... despite the forecast synoptic charts being almost identical.

image.thumb.png.4657fa5965a5b0b65d9c076d52082bda.pngimage.thumb.png.2df56680e3c6333438c866fcfdb758ec.png  

Here is what it forecast for tomorrow when it still had the hot uppers over us....

image.thumb.png.9b68219868e0dfd85af28cdc14ce6be0.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

And by day 6 we have perhaps the first sign of warmth building again... Plume no2 anyone!!! Suite you sir, suits me sir!!

UW144-7.gif

Looking good just south of the UK, plenty of heat to tap into, although not liking the look of that cold pool over the Norwegian Sea. Hopefully it slides east. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, danm said:

Looking good just south of the UK, plenty of heat to tap into, although not liking the look of that cold pool over the Norwegian Sea. Hopefully it slides east. 

Just watch that cold pool get modelled further and further East with each run... That cold pool is more than welcome to make a return come Dec 1st though.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

What a fantastic set of 12z runs this evening!!ukmo and gfs high pressure dominated and temps close to mid twenties!!fantastic!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Will probably give up Nov 30th...

I'm looking for a new era of cold starting in November

Anyway...good signs already that next week could be better than the Ecm 12z was showing last evening..i.e..no cool northerly later next week!!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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SMU Maestro

SMU

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32 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

The new Era? Funny I remember records being broken in 2003 then a long wait for anything substantial... Most of the east coast has been shivering this week with that awful wind from the North Sea

The uk isnt the benchmark mate. The globe is the benchmark, we are just lucky we sit in the bit thats the least effected - A non continental climate ( at the moment ) ...

Heres another startling statistic-

Svalbard in May was 8c Warmer than average at -4c monthly mean (ave is -12c )

8c !!

S

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Steady as she goes...get the heat in first, the thunderstorms will follow!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The uk isnt the benchmark mate. The globe is the benchmark, we are just lucky we sit in the bit thats the least effected - A non continental climate ( at the moment ) ...

Heres another startling statistic-

Svalbard in May was 8c Warmer than average at -4c monthly mean (ave is -12c )

8c !!

S

Good news Steve - a big sea ice melt season could affect the vortex's ability to gain strength in late Autumn winter, thus feeding back to HLB during high winter.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gem 12z...actually I'll stop right there, it's not a run i want to see again!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

It's nae the day-to-day details, at the end of the 12Z, that interest me, it's two generalities: the heat is still firmly entrenched over Europe, and there's no sign of any substantial HLBs.:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Today must be a record for the lowest ground temps in the UK produced by some of the highest 850 values .

Normally the 20 850 value is to heat what the -15 value is to cold .

 

 

An inversion in the daytime incredible.

22c upper air here and 22c.

Rmgfs062.gif

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