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Paul

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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5 hours ago, knocker said:

Current satellite

sat.thumb.JPG.581490f21c45b7a6117991b00a731577.JPG

Are those images publicly available, please?

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Absolutely brilliant spot! I also note that we can see past runs too. Here's yesterday's 12Z. Perhaps people could look and see if the 4pm temperature matched up with official readings from yesterday:

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/2019062712/england/temperature-2m-corr/20190627-1600z.html

My sense at a quick glance is that it overstated temperatures in some spots (close to me, Gosport had 25C but the model said 26C, Southampton had 23C but the model said 27C - oops!!). Might explain the Met Office errors if they've been following this and it has been too high.

Looking at yesterdays run, it seems a degree or two too high in this area yesterday. eg) Pembrey was 27c and it had 28/29.  However the standard temperature parameter only had 25c so that was too little! 

Standard temp parameter actually has 33/34c north london Saturday so using the "inbetween" rule. 35/36c possible Saturday in those areas.

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, most of next week most of the uk is influenced by azores ridging so plenty of fine and pleasantly warm / rather warm surface conditions, especially the further south you are so good news for week 1 of Wimbledon.. Further ahead, again a slack pressure field is indicated but still plenty of support for scandi troughs and cool troughs also affecting the uk at times but also a few members showing a warm anticyclonic spell between early / mid July and the odd plumey attempt too..a mixed bag then longer term currently.  

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Lots of uncertainty for later next week apparent, as the models can't pin down whether a low will zip across from near Canada to interact with the Scandinavian trough, how much that trough will back west if that does occur, and how quickly the pattern will tend to correct back east even so.

The overall picture looks pleasant enough, especially when accounting for FV3's temperature troubles. I've seen it predict, for example, mid- to high-teens maximums for lowland England on a July day with dry weather, sunny spells and light winds. Past experience points toward low-mid 20s on such a day!

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33 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, most of next week most of the uk is influenced by azores ridging so plenty of fine and pleasantly warm / rather warm surface conditions, especially the further south you are so good news for week 1 of Wimbledon.. Further ahead, again a slack pressure field is indicated but still plenty of support for scandi troughs and cool troughs also affecting the uk at times but also a few members showing a warm anticyclonic spell between early / mid July and the odd plumey attempt too..a mixed bag then longer term currently.  

 

You've not posted  our trusted friend CFS for a while karl? looking promising out towards mid month... What a model... ??

cfs-0-120.png

cfs-0-144.png

cfs-0-168.png

cfs-0-192.png

cfs-0-222.png

cfs-0-252.png

cfs-0-270.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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The GEFS 06Z ensembles definitely show a burst of uncertainty, come July 5th:

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

Though, they're really not too bad overall; reasonable temps and very little rainfall will come as a nice change from the first three-weeks of June...?

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Indeed Matt, my lack of faith in the CFS is disturbing!??

Darth-Vader-I-FIND-YOUR-LACK-OF-FAITH-DISTURBING.jpg

Edited by Jon Snow
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AROME ensembles 21z take on peak temperatures tomorrow.

Probability >30C:

image.thumb.jpg.5b8de1f87049dd91847e2ded9fde3408.jpg

Probability >35C:

image.thumb.jpg.0e741200455af4d3bf0d6a7191bd997d.jpg

Will be interesting to see how this changes on this mornings run, due out around 4pm.  My thoughts are that the probabilities will have increased.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Lovely plume of uppers from icon 6z...its now a waiting game for just what maximums can be achieved tomorrow. Fantastic update from exeter as well into mid July... Big turnaround.... ?

icon-1-30.png

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Lovely plume of uppers from icon 6z...its now a waiting game for just what maximums can be achieved tomorrow. Fantastic update from exeter as well into mid July... Big turnaround.... ?

icon-1-30.png

Surely, we will briefly see 34c/35c somewhere just NW of London on Saturday?

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

Lovely plume of uppers from icon 6z...its now a waiting game for just what maximums can be achieved tomorrow. Fantastic update from exeter as well into mid July... Big turnaround.... ?

icon-1-30.png

Yes only a courtesy mention of Exeter , it would seem they are backing the Euro models with HP never far from our shores, and i suppose we can include GFS now..

Sat in the garden with a larger shandy  lifes good ?

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6 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Surely, we will briefly see 34c/35c somewhere just NW of London on Saturday?

I’m going for a 36 and a new June record.

The 1 day plume in 2015 produced 36.7 and the uppers were lower. The uppers have not been a great guide this week, but with the flow off the baking continent tomorrow there is no reason to suppose that some very high maxima won’t be achieved. The only limiting factors could be cloud or the wind strength. Then again in 2015, the sun was gone for a couple of hours and we still nearly got 37.

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Tricky week to predict 8th July - 12th July but I'm going 60/40 in favour of a fairly good week at the moment, especially further west.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019062800_240.

Two big players - a ridge near the UK, and a trough close to Scandi. 

Fine lines between a northerly pattern for the UK, or a slowly toppling high which could bring a static settled few days, with increasing heat.

I think we generally expect ridges to correct slightly west / south-west between D10 and D6 - if a correction happens at all. It may be that the position offered in cluster 1 turns out a better position than if the ridge was bang over the UK at D10, only to be collapsed by the jet later on?

But if the Scandi trough has just a little more influence, like cluster 2 ... average to below average is likely.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Surely, we will briefly see 34c/35c somewhere just NW of London on Saturday?

I think we'll get 37 or 38 tomorrow in London. I can recall July 1st 2015 models were only showing 32/33C for maxes in the run up days.

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8 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I think we'll get 37 or 38 tomorrow in London

I feel that's too big a leap, around 22c in London today..can't believe it would be 15 / 16c higher tomorrow!?

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1 hour ago, Mandrake said:

I think Cardiff will not see 30C today judging from live data see map (12:45) however I would suggest somewhere like Exeter or Bristol are more likely to reach 30C today

weather_Map3.JPG

Porthmadog in NW Wales is currently at 28c, and the western Highlands also at 28c/29c. Those look like being the hotspots as they’re on the leeward side of high mountain ranges (fohn effect). So weirdly, it’s unlikely that any big city or town will top the table but actually localised rural hotspots on the west coast sheltered from the easterly breeze by a big mountain range. 

Edited by danm
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15 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I think we'll get 37 or 38 tomorrow in London. I can recall July 1st 2015 models were only showing 32/33C for maxes in the run up days.

38 is pushing it but I wouldn’t rule out 37. Think something like 36.2 will be the max.

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The 850mb temps at Camborne and Herstmonceux at Midday were 21-5C and 22-5C respectively above the not unexpected very large low level inversion. Above both have areas close to the DALR and indications of high and medium level cloud.

2019062812.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.5fa7d7a8e6121cfc0d2bff50734f101f.gif2019062812.03882.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.bec5c9876d57d96014eea0cd2c119040.gif

And another classy MODIS image

modis.thumb.JPG.0d8a9fdfd74195cd221ecd018223953a.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.3e900ffcb26599474602fa529068beb7.gif

Edited by knocker

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Today must be a record for the lowest ground temps in the UK produced by some of the highest 850 values .

Normally the 20 850 value is to heat what the -15 value is to cold .

 

 

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The EPS mean 5-10 anomaly has strong westerly upper flow exiting the north east seaboard south of a trough situated over NE Canada then across the Atlantic. The source of much of this air is the Arctic so as it swings around the subtropical high in mid Atlantic and then over the UK it is not that warm despite being modified by the sea track. Ergo surface temps a tad below average in the UK albeit the weather not bad with perhaps a N/S split

No huge change in the ext period although the flow is flatter across the Atlantic courtesy of a slack ridge/trough complex over Greenland/Iceland

5-10.thumb.png.d1203ff360cbe5a9a3488d9b42664cc0.png9-14.thumb.png.ee523c369b07b994f8d4144fa7ac42e7.png

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS mean 5-10 anomaly has strong westerly upper flow exiting the north east seaboard south of a trough situated over NE Canada then across the Atlantic. The source of much of this air is the Arctic so as it swings around the subtropical high in mid Atlantic and then over the UK it is not that warm despite being modified by the sea track. Ergo surface temps a tad below average in the UK albeit the weather not bad with perhaps a N/S split

No huge change in the ext period although the flow is flatter across the Atlantic courtesy of a slack ridge/trough complex over Greenland/Iceland

5-10.thumb.png.d1203ff360cbe5a9a3488d9b42664cc0.png9-14.thumb.png.ee523c369b07b994f8d4144fa7ac42e7.png

The volume of blocking across the pole is staggering.

If we get to mid July with little or no intefrrence from troughs i feel we might have been a tad fortunate, from a summer lovers perspective.

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The volume of blocking across the pole is staggering.

If we get to mid July with little or no intefrrence from troughs i feel we might have been a tad fortunate, from a summer lovers perspective.

Most of June we have been very unfortunate, rotten early summer!!..it's about time we were fortunate ?!!..anyway, next week, for the most part looks decent enough but more so further south.

Edited by Jon Snow
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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Today must be a record for the lowest ground temps in the UK produced by some of the highest 850 values .

Normally the 20 850 value is to heat what the -15 value is to cold .

 

 

It is surprising and a bit disappointing in a way, but it's still very warm and the air quality is wonderful.

Very clear sky too which makes the sun feel very strong. Not sure it will be like that tomorrow when we really feel the warmer uppers.

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30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Today must be a record for the lowest ground temps in the UK produced by some of the highest 850 values .

Normally the 20 850 value is to heat what the -15 value is to cold .

 

 

Indeed. Apart from tomorrow, which will give us proper heat (mid 30’s possible in the E/SE), this 3/4 day spell could have been something really memorable. 

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