Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Guest]

 

38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I feel its very finely balanced hand on heart- the blocking across northern latitudes is not going away in a hurry, fascinating model watching at the moment.

 

Completely agree, it’s a finely balanced thing. With northerly blocking so pertinent it  could easily rear its ugly head by day 8/9. Big ECM coming up, it seemed overly keen last week to reintroduce the dreaded the Azoress / Greeny link up hopefully it doesn’t persist with the theme from the Ops run this morning. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the azores ridge gradually muscles it's way into the uk following a bit of trouble with a scandi trough and most of next week then looks pleasant, at least for southern uk but further ahead although the mean indicates a very slack pressure field, going through the members there are quite a few showing lows / troughs digging down into scandinavia meaning some cooler changeable / unsettled spells for the uk, at least the north as we head towards mid July but at that range it could easily flip back to something more summery..hopefully!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Completely agree, it’s a finely balanced thing. With northerly blocking so pertinent it  could easily rear its ugly head by day 8/9. Big ECM coming up, it seemed overly keen last week to reintroduce the dreaded the Azoress / Greeny link up hopefully it doesn’t persist with the theme from the Ops run this morning. 

I wouldn't say its a big ECM coming up though... It could indicate much better conditions, or much worser conditions, before completly backtracking again tomorrow and the weekend! The models currently are really struggling to gain any traction on forecasts beyond 5/6 days. Tonight's ECM whether good or bad will have little baring on procedures moving forward. 

Edited June 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the azores ridge gradually muscles it's way into the uk following a bit of trouble with a scandi trough and most of next week then looks pleasant, at least for southern uk but further ahead although the mean indicates a very slack pressure field, going through the members there are quite a few showing lows / troughs digging down into scandinavia meaning some cooler changeable / unsettled spells for the uk, at least the north as we head towards mid July but at that range it could easily flip back to something more summery..hopefully!

Karl, it's a bit of a minefield currently.. To me it looks like a 50-50 split of it remaining fine and increasingly very warm or cooler and more unsettled. Even the geezers at Exeter are head scratching moving forward! It looks like it could be another few days before we see just what direction of travel we are heading in.

[Methuselah]

According to the GEFS 12Z ensembles, average temps (and T850s) remain quite low, once Saturday's record-breaking heatwave is out of the way...the op is well on the cold side of the pack, however!

  

  

Does one detect the ordure-like whiff of an unwanted pattern-change?

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

According to the GEFS 12Z ensembles, average temps (and T850s) remain quite low, once Saturday's record-breaking heatwave is out of the way...the op is well on the cold side of the pack, however!

  

  

Does one detect the ordure-like whiff of an unwanted pattern-change?

I'm not concerned Ed,  most of next week looks pretty decent for the majority..one step or one week at a time!

[Mike Poole]

Some good posts on here today, particularly the analysis by @Man With Beard, this post is about Saturday in the UK, what can we expect?  Again, taking a probabilistic approach using the French models, first the ARPEGE ensemble 6z, here is the probability of >30C T57:

But taking the higher resolution AROME ensembles 9z, here's the probability of >30C at T51 which is the end of the run, Saturday 13.00 UK time (so significant power to add):

And probability >35C at same time:

Liking my bet in the peak temperature thread of 36.9C at Gravesend!

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Another day when the GFS shows a whopping amount of CAPE together with a very high negative lifted index. But of course let's not get excited as it's three times it's shown this for southwestern areas in the last 10 days. Looks like more tweaking is still needed on this model regarding these values, they're still way overdone 

[Guest]

At 120hrs ECM looks good and setting up for a strong ridge pushing in! By 168hrs it’s a car crash with a rapid ridge to Greeny high link with a long fetched northerly being lined up

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Another day when the GFS shows a whopping amount of CAPE together with a very high negative lifted index. But of course let's not get excited as it's three times it's shown this for southwestern areas in the last 10 days. Looks like more tweaking is still needed on this model regarding these values, they're still way overdone 

Enormous amounts of CAPE, however we’d need a trigger temperature of about 45c to release the energy

[knocker]

The em not adverse to the gfs take on next week

[northwestsnow]

I think i prefer EC 12z to its previous run..

There is a northerly, but it looks pretty brief at day 9.

That said, shannon entropy is now in full swing imo.

I am enjoying the lovely weather though..

Edited June 27, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think i prefer EC 12z to its previous run..

There is a northerly, but it looks pretty brief at day 9.

That said, shannon entropy is now in full swing imo.

I am enjoying the lovely weather though..

Decent end, high pressure building in again from the west..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Summing up in a nutshell.... ECM brings some high pressure ridging in the early stages. Towards the middle stages we see high pressure retreating Westwards with a Northerly setting up!! It looks brief... Towards the latter stages high pressure again showing signs of extending Eastwards.... For me... That's a decent run... Bring on the mean.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think i prefer EC 12z to its previous run..

There isva northerly, but it looks pretty brief at day 9.

That said, shannon entropy is now in full swing imo.

I am enjoying the lovely weather though..

Yes, I think I agree, this looks to be a transitory affair, and maybe heights ridging into Greenland occasionally might be something that persists occasionally, after all there is no polar vortex to reset things in summer so the last remnants of that strong final stratosphere warming might persist, but the main signal from that looks to have largely dissipated.  ECM in full, and T240 chart not to be sneezed at:

[SMU]

Note the long lasting -NAO this year- Its been Negative since April 26th to the current date - about 60 odd days...

ENS paint a negative picture continuing oscillating between weak -NAO to strong.    -NAO

The correlation here is rather crude but indicates large swings in weather over the UK in July from chilly unsettled Northerlies to stonking southerlies-

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The correlation here is rather crude but indicates large swings in weather over the UK in July from chilly unsettled Northerlies to stonking southerlies-

Variety is the spice of life, I would take that over boring run of the mill changeable average July any day!

Edited June 27, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Note the long lasting -NAO this year- Its been Negative since April 26th to the current date - about 60 odd days...

ENS paint a negative picture continuing oscillating between weak -NAO to strong.    -NAO

The correlation here is rather crude but indicates large swings in weather over the UK in July from chilly unsettled Northerlies to stonking southerlies-

That NAO better be negative- come Nov/Dec !!

OK OK i'm getting a bit ahead of myself, saturday could be a real tarmac melt job down in the SE , will be intersting how hot its gets..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

At 120hrs ECM looks good and setting up for a strong ridge pushing in! By 168hrs it’s a car crash with a rapid ridge to Greeny high link with a long fetched northerly being lined up

And by 216 and 240, the car crash has been cleaned up, paramedics have left the scene with no reported injuries and everybody is now good to go again...

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And by 216 and 240, the car crash has been cleaned up, paramedics have left the scene with no reported injuries and everybody is now good to go again...

And of course the Ecm op may be wrong about the cool Northerly, it could be a glancing blow or miss the uk completely and we could see a pretty decent spell developing next week onwards.

[knocker]

A not so subtle change from the current pattern

[nick sussex]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And by 216 and 240, the car crash has been cleaned up, paramedics have left the scene with no reported injuries and everybody is now good to go again...

That’s a brilliant post , very funny ! 

The ECM is a lot better than this morning. As long as the Azores high can topple sufficiently ne then it looks like nice after the brief northerly .

As an aside for heat junkies how many would have liked to have been in Montclus , France today had its hottest June day on record  , 43.5 c !

Its possible 45 c might be passed tomorrow in the same area .

Thankfully nowhere near here . That’s vile heat , and hence why there’s a red warning issued .

Edited June 27, 2019 by nick sussex

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean 12z:

Follows the op to an extent, probably a variety of solutions at the end, but not of any significant concern at this stage.  High pressure not to far from the UK, in what direction not yet determined.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s a brilliant post , very funny ! 

The ECM is a lot better than this morning. As long as the Azores high can topple sufficiently ne then it looks like nice after the brief northerly .

As an aside for heat junkies how many would have liked to have been in Montclus , France today had its hottest June day on record  , 43.5 c !

Its possible 45 c might be passed tomorrow in the same area .

Thankfully nowhere near here . That’s vile heat , and hence why there’s a red warning issued .

Thanks Nick... That's extreme heat to say the least. Just reading your post has made me switch me fan on. Seriously though, red warning! No laughing matter... A serious danger to the vunerables health.. Hopefully things will ease a bit for you before much longer mate..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM mean nay to bad, the cooler interlude is also being shown up, but tentative signs of high pressure regaining the initiative by the later stages... Certainly no signs of us being thrown back into an early June situation anytime soon... Thank the lord for that... 

Edited June 27, 2019 by Mattwolves