Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Moving away from this week for a moment, what do you guys think to the general pattern will be as we move into July? 

Im no expert obviously so its far beyond my ability to call it, but what sort of evolution could we see from say here at 240hrs (gfs)

That particular chart suggests to me that we would likely see Mid-Latitude blocking reloads, mainly from the Azore's high ridging in from time to time. Can't give a temperature approximation though. I'm certainly not amazingly knowledgeable, but that's my two cents, FWIW!

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

I assume it's because it appears to be the most known, easiest to access and quite basic.

Or because its output is just as worthy of consideration as the ECM and UKMO?

Don't forget the GFS was first to pick up on this... and at one point the average T850 for midnight Wednesday was just about on 20C over London only to around 16C now. So why should we dismiss it because its showing what people would rather not want to see?

[matty007]

5 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Moving away from this week for a moment, what do you guys think to the general pattern will be as we move into July? 

Im no expert obviously so its far beyond my ability to call it, but what sort of evolution could we see from say here at 240hrs (gfs)

Well. If we look at the ECM and the GFS (and upto the 30th on the NAVGEM) the start of July is looking quite promising. There are signs we could be moving into a more anticyclonic pattern which would allow for more high pressure and warm air.

It can sometimes happen that these plumes herald a change in the patterns and can be the start of a more settled and warmer period.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

That particular chart suggests to me that we would likely see Mid-Latitude blocking reloads, mainly from the Azore's high ridging in from time to time. Can't give a temperature approximation though. I'm certainly not amazingly knowledgeable, but that's my two cents, FWIW!

Or we could look at the CFS operational out to mid July and say... Make the most of next week's plume.... That's ya lot for this summer!!

[Methuselah]

GEFS 06Z ensembles (op) show a definite uptick -- compared to the 00Z -- in 2m/850mb temps, post breakdown; so not a bad run, over all?

  

  

As the 'old' saying goes: If, come June, we lose a plume, it disnae mean it's doom and gloom...?

[matty007]

31 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Or because its output is just as worthy of consideration as the ECM and UKMO?

Don't forget the GFS was first to pick up on this... and at one point the average T850 for midnight Wednesday was just about on 20C over London only to around 16C now. So why should we dismiss it because its showing what people would rather not want to see?

No disrespect, but why do I keep hearing this?. Just because a model showed something first, that does not mean that it will continue to be accurate. Many times the GFS has spotted patterns first only to massively backtrack later and become widely inaccurate. I'm trying to think of a good analogy, but it's escaping my caffeine deprived brain at the moment. Basically, swift is not always a indicator of efficiency in the long term. They don't always don't go hand in hand.

Weather forecasting is a minefield at the best of times, but surely if 84% are all in agreement for something hotter than the other 16%, logic dictates to put more faith in the overruling 84%?

I will emphaize. Yes, I am a heat lover so of course want the hot charts to be correct. However, I am also a realist and an objective person. Currently, going with the vast majority of the charts is the objective view.

Edited June 23, 2019 by matty007

[Geordiesnow]

The question always has been how far north and west the heat will get and that remains the case but only to the extent whether the 20C Hpa will hit the UK shores or not and from what I seen, the evidence suggests it will but its not a certainty and besides its not going to alter the outlook of turning increasingly warm and quite humid. 

Quicksliver1989 has been pointing out the heat is delayed but what people have not noticed this is due to the high ridging in and bringing in cooler air down the North sea HOWEVER what this does is stop the plume from heading northwards and eastwards up the North Sea and risk missing the UK all together, instead it has to head North and westwards(because of orientation of the high) which means it makes the plume more or less a certainty with just the academic details to sort out I.E how hot will it get for some. 

Still from all the runs I seen, the hot uppers will make its presence felt on Wednesday in southern areas and then spread northwards during Thursday. 

How much cloud will there be will be open to doubt although I would imagine the sun will be quite hazy at times. 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Or because its output is just as worthy of consideration as the ECM and UKMO?

Don't forget the GFS was first to pick up on this... and at one point the average T850 for midnight Wednesday was just about on 20C over London only to around 16C now. So why should we dismiss it because its showing what people would rather not want to see?

Or because it’s because there is very chilly surface flow over very cold water brought on a very strong breeze. ECM & GFS suggesting a 20-30knt wind in places on Thursday and Friday, you’re not going to get high maxes with that setup. 

[Derecho]

12 minutes ago, matty007 said:

No disrespect, but why do I keep hearing this?. Just because a model showed something first, that does not mean that it will continue to be accurate. Many times the GFS has spotted patterns first only to massively backtrack later and become widely inaccurate. I'm trying to think of a good analogy, but it's escaping my caffeine deprived brain at the moment. Basically, swift is not always a indicator of efficiency in the long term. They don't always don't go hand in hand.

Don't think anyone can dispute this  

Weather forecasting is a minefield at the best of times, but surely if 84% are all in agreement for something hotter than the other 14%, logic dictates to put more faith in the overruling 84%?

I think this assumption is based on the belief that the models are covering all the known variable factors which are contributing to the levels of uncertainty that are being shown. However in my time of watching the output of the GFS, UKMO and ECM models since 2005, the warning sign is always most apparent are delays to said event.

FI starts at ~ T84-96 with these finely poised synoptics perhaps a bit later in winter. I tend to not treat anything as a certainty until there is full agreement on a heatwave or coldwave at this time range.

I will emphaize. Yes, I am a heat lover so of course want the hot charts to be correct. However, I am also a realist and an objective person. Currently, going with the vast majority of the charts is the objective view.

Objectively yup this is on paper a realistic point of view but it does need to start moving forward to come into fruition, I'd much rather be in a situation where the heat is dead cert to come in even if it appears to breakdown in the following days, then something that iappears more prolonged but remains just out of touch until the opportunity is gone.

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[matty007]

24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Or because its output is just as worthy of consideration as the ECM and UKMO?

Don't forget the GFS was first to pick up on this... and at one point the average T850 for midnight Wednesday was just about on 20C over London only to around 16C now. So why should we dismiss it because its showing what people would rather not want to see?

I would also like to add. I have been on here since 2013 and many times over the years various charts have shown upcoming heat, however upon looking at others charts, I saw that it was an unlikely result. So, even though I am a heatlover, I conceded that it would probably not happen.

We all have our weather prefrences, and some people will be compeltely bias and only see what they want to see, even when there's very little. On the contary, with this situation, there is MUCH to see and the vast majority of it is suggesting heat.
If the majority of the models backtrack and come into agreement that this plume is watered down, I will be the first to concede it.

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by matty007

[Frosty.]

On reflection, the GEFS 6z mean is actually nae bad for the south / southeast later in the week, there are some hot members in the south pushing 30-31c before it turns cooler / fresher from the west next sunday.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Stabilo19]

Tuesday max temps for London:

GFS: 29 degrees

ARPEGE:  23-24 degrees

GEM: 23 degrees

NAVGEM: 25 degrees

and just for comparison, BBC and UKMO are going for 25-26.

 

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Or because it’s because there is very chilly surface flow over very cold water brought on a very strong breeze. ECM & GFS suggesting a 20-30knt wind in places on Thursday and Friday, you’re not going to get high maxes with that setup. 

Oh come off it! It's turning humid for most even on Eastern Coasts as the temperature and dew points will be almost identical. The North Sea is definately not 'very cold' either, so whether its 20C or 30C, it's going to feel humid, even more so with the 20C because of the identical dew points hence night times are going to feel quite quite oppressive really. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Oh come off it! It's turning humid for most even on Eastern Coasts as the temperature and dew points will be almost identical. The North Sea is definately not 'very cold' either, so whether its 20C or 30C, it's going to feel humid, even more so with the 20C because of the identical dew points hence night times are going to feel quite quite oppressive really. 

Hopefully your location should be very nice this coming week GS

I'm hoping the models prolong the heat through the weekend..

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm hoping the models prolong the heat through the weekend..

There's good support for saturday to be very warm / hot and humid..change to cooler / fresher sunday.

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

There's good support for saturday to be very warm / hot and humid..change to cooler / fresher sunday.

I assume this will vary NW to SE

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

I assume this will vary NW to SE

Yes, warmest further s / e / se..gradual transition to cooler fresher across the far w / nw slowly pushing s / e...timings subject to change.

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Oh come off it! It's turning humid for most even on Eastern Coasts as the temperature and dew points will be almost identical. The North Sea is definately not 'very cold' either, so whether its 20C or 30C, it's going to feel humid, even more so with the 20C because of the identical dew points hence night times are going to feel quite quite oppressive really. 

The north sea is cold, 12-14c and will be ripe for producing copious amounts of sea fog. South west, south coasts west of the IOW will probably do best.

[mb018538]

Been interesting how this has all developed that’s for sure. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t threaten the June record out of this, historic heat for Western Europe that may not come around again soon. Friday and Saturday looking the best bet once all the storms have blown through in the early part of the week and the wind switches to a more favourable direction.

[knocker]

A quick update on the bands of heavy rain progressing north east through this evening and overnight in this complex synoptic scenario. And this could include storms with the odd torrential periods of rain A mild humid night in the south east with very high dew points and the wind picking up along north east Scotland

 

[Methuselah]

Someone asked why 1995 had NE winds with temps of over 30C, generally, whilst today's models indicate much cooler surface temps for the coming week...Maybe this simple comparison holds the answer to that question:

Following the isobars back from Eastern England, on today's 006Z at T+111, it's quite apparent that the air coming ashore has barely touched land during thousands of miles' travel:

Do the same exercise with the chart for June 27 1995, and it's immediately clear that those NE winds originated over mainland Europe/Scandinavia -- which were already seeing surface temps of 30C+ by that time...?

I think it's the difference in duration of modification that's important here, and not the wind direction per se...?

Edited June 23, 2019 by Ed Stone

[NApplewhite]

Various models are showing much fresher weather from Sunday! Rain moving in from the N Atlantic!  Very disappointed with the plume non event!

Edited June 23, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment about GFS removed.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Various models are showing much fresher weather from Sunday! Rain moving in from the N Atlantic! 

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the arrival of fresher conditions next weekend! It's 7 days away and we are yet to nail this hot plume just yet... So certainly no point in worrying over the possible breakdown of it. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MattStoke]

The ICON remains consistent. 20’C+ 850hpa temperatures pushing into the UK on Thursday and as far north as Scotland by Friday.

[SMU]

132 ICON has +26c uppers just touching west sussex -